Florida Decides Poll - Nelson faces tough Senate race

For the first time in his race for the US Senate, Senator Bill Nelson, D-Florida, could have a tough road to re-election ahead of him.

That's according to a new, exclusive News 13 Florida Decides Poll.

That's assuming the GOP Candidate for the Senate is Rep. Connie Mack, IV, who is currently far ahead of the rest of the pack. The poll shows Mack is favored by a large margin, receiving 38 percent of the vote. The next closest competitor, George LeMieux, comes in with only 12 percent of the vote. Behind him is Mike McCalister wtih 7 percent, Adam Hasner with 4 percent and Craig Miller with only 1 percent.

Clearly, though, the August primary election is still far from the minds of most voters. Thirty-eight percent of those polled say they're still undecided.

• Jump to: Complete Poll Results

When it comes to the general election, though, voters are slightly more sure of which way they'll lean, and unless something changes, it's likely to be a close race for the two-term incumbent, Bill Nelson. If it were between Nelson and Mack, Nelson holds a 45 to 42  percent lead with only 13 percent undecided.

If LeMieux ends up taking the GOP nod, Nelson is a little safer, getting 48 percent to LeMieux's 33 percent. LeMieux briefly served as senator, replacing the retiring Mel Martinez in 2009 until Marco Rubio's election in 2010.

The key could be name recognition. Despite his long career in Florida politics, 12 percent of Florida voters don't recognize his name. As for the GOP candidates, there, too, name recognition is key. Only 19 percent were unfamiliar with Connie Mack's name, compared to between 60 and 86 percent for the other candidates - LeMieux (60%), Adam Hasner (78%), Mike McCalister (76%) and Craig Miller (86%).

Nelson was first elected in 2000. Prior to that, he served three terms in the Florida House and was in the US House from 1979 to 1991. He was also a member of Florida's Cabinet for 6 years. Coincidentally, Nelson was elected to the Senate when Connie Mack, III, retired.

The telephone survey of 800 registered Florida voters -- all likely to vote in the general election -- was conducted Jan. 24-26 for the Tampa Bay Times, Miami Herald, El Nuevo Herald, Bay News 9 and Central Florida News 13. The poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, a nonpartisan, Jacksonville-based company. The survey also included an over-sampling of 500 likely Republican primary voters for the GOP primary questions. The margin of error overall is 3.5 percentage points. For GOP primary questions, the margin of error is 4.5 percentage points.

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Poll Results

QUESTION: Do you recognize the name _______________?
(If yes) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of _______________?

	Favorable	Unfavorable	Neutral	Don't Recognize
Bill Nelson	42%	24%	22%	12%
Connie Mack IV	31%	11%	39%	19%
George LeMieux	15%	8%	17%	60%
Adam Hasner	6%	2%	14%	78%
Mike McCalister	5%	1%	18%	76%
Craig Miller	1%	--	13%	86%
500 LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
Connie Mack IV	42%	7%	35%	16%
George LeMieux	17%	5%	21%	57%
Adam Hasner	8%	1%	18%	73%
Mike McCalister	9%	--	14%	77%
Craig Miller	3%	1%	17%	79%

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QUESTION: If the 2012 Republican primary for U.S. Senate were held today, which one of the following candidates would get your vote?

	State	Men	Women	White	Hispanic
Connie Mack IV	38%	43%	34%	38%	39%
George LeMieux	12%	15%	9%	13%	6%
Mike McCalister	7%	7%	7%	7%	5%
Adam Hasner	4%	4%	3%	4%	2%
Craig Miller	1%	1%	1%	1%	--
Undecided	38%	30%	46%	37%	48%
	North FL	Central FL	Tampa Bay	Southwest FL	Southeast FL
Connie Mack IV	34%	35%	32%	58%	36%
George LeMieux	15%	11%	13%	8%	13%
Mike McCalister	7%	10%	8%	3%	4%
Adam Hasner	2%	5%	2%	1%	9%
Craig Miller	--	2%	1%	--	1%
Undecided	42%	37%	44%	30%	37%

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QUESTION: If the 2012 general election for Florida’s U.S. Senate seat were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Bill Nelson, the Democrat, and Connie Mack IV, the Republican?

	Nelson	Mack	Undecided
STATE	45%	42%	13%
REGION	Nelson	Mack	Undecided
North Florida	40%	44%	16%
Central Florida	43%	47%	10%
Tampa Bay	44%	40%	16%
Southwest Florida	40%	49%	11%
Southeast Florida	52%	36%	12%
SEX	Nelson	Mack	Undecided
Men	41%	48%	11%
Women	49%	36%	15%
RACE	Nelson	Mack	Undecided
White	39%	48%	13%
Black	83%	6%	11%
Hispanic	37%	45%	18%
PARTY	Nelson	Mack	Undecided
Democrat	75%	13%	12%
Republican	9%	78%	13%
Independent	50%	35%	15%

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QUESTION: If the 2012 general election for Florida’s U.S. Senate seat were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Bill Nelson, the Democrat, and Georgie LeMieux, the Republican?

	Nelson	LeMieux	Undecided
STATE	48%	33%	19%
REGION	Nelson	LeMieux	Undecided
North Florida	41%	37%	22%
Central Florida	47%	36%	17%
Tampa Bay	46%	36%	18%
Southwest Florida	39%	45%	16%
Southeast Florida	58%	22%	20%
SEX	Nelson	LeMieux	Undecided
Men	43%	37%	20%
Women	53%	28%	19%
RACE	Nelson	LeMieux	Undecided
White	41%	38%	21%
Black	86%	5%	9%
Hispanic	48%	35%	17%
PARTY	Nelson	LeMieux	Undecided
Democrat	78%	5%	17%
Republican	13%	66%	21%
Independent	54%	29%	17%