A Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9 exclusive statewide poll shows a new leader in the presidential race and a significant shakeup of opinions among Floridians, with potential national ramifications.
The latest results, released Thursday, show Republican Mitt Romney with a 7-point lead over President Barack Obama.
When asked which ticket would get their vote if the general election were held today, 51 percent of the 800 registered Florida voters polled picked Romney, with 44 percent choosing Obama.
Another 1 percent chose Libertarian Gary Johnson or another third-party candidate, and 4 percent said they were still undecided.
The new numbers show a major change from our last Florida Decides Poll just three weeks earlier, when President Obama held the edge over Romney by just one percentage point.
So, why the sudden switch? The latest poll was taken just this week, Oct. 8–10, about a week after the first one-on-one debate between Romney and Obama.
Women, Hispanics, independents changing their minds
The biggest change seen from September's poll to this month's were among women, Hispanics and voters who identify with neither major party.
In September, 51 percent of independent voters said they preferred President Obama, and 40 percent said they would vote for Mitt Romney.
Just three weeks later, that vote has flipped, with 52 percent supporting Romney and just 39 percent backing the president.
Among women polled a month ago, 55 percent said they would vote for Obama, and 40 percent for Romney.
Now, that gap has narrowed significantly, with just 49 percent of women choosing Obama, and 47 percent supporting Romney.
The Republican nominee also gained support among men, with a three-point gain to 56 percent, while votes for Obama dropped the same amount.
Four percent of both men and women said they were still undecided, and 1 percent of men chose a third-party candidate.
Breaking it demographically by race, Romney still held the majority of white voters, with 61 percent, while 94 percent of black voters said they support Obama.
The Hispanic vote, however, saw a noticeable shift, with many dropping their support for Obama.
Last month, 52 percent of Hispanic voters polled said they would vote for the president. In three weeks, that number has dropped to 44 percent.
Romney picked up some ground among Hispanics, from 43 to 46 percent, but the number of undecided Hispanic voters has doubled, from 5 percent in September to 10 percent now, representing the largest group of undecided voters in the latest poll.
Another noticeable change was also seen along the I-4 Corridor.
In Central Florida, Romney grabbed just 48 percent in September. Now, he has 52 percent of Central Floridians' votes.
Obama's support in Central Florida dropped one point, to 46 percent, so Romney's gain came mostly from previously undecided voters. The undecided vote in Central Florida dropped from 5 to 2 percent in three weeks.
In Tampa Bay, support for Romney jumped from 45 to 52 percent, and votes for Obama dropped from 49 to 44 percent. Undecided voters dropped from 5 to 3 percent, and the remaining 1 percent is backing a third party.
Obama also saw a drop in support in almost every age group, including a 7 percent drop among voters between ages 50 and 64. In September, 46 percent of that group said they would vote for Obama. Now, he only has 39 percent of their support.
Even Florida's youngest voters have begun changing their minds. Support for Obama among voters aged 18 to 34 dropped from 59 to 53 percent in three weeks. Romney saw a 3 percent gain, to 40 percent, in the same age group, and 7 percent now say they are undecided, as opposed to 3 percent last month.
First presidential debate's impact
So, what changed voters' minds?
The first debate between Obama and Romney last week was likely a large influence.
Most did not change their minds. According to our exclusive poll, 88 percent of voters said they support the same candidate they preferred before the debate -- 44 percent for Obama, and 44 percent for Romney.
But it's the undecided vote both candidates are really after, and 5 percent said they were undecided before the debate, but now favor Romney.
No one in our Florida Decides poll said they went from being undecided to favoring Obama.
To add to the debate backlash, 2 percent said they switched from Obama to Romney, and another 2 percent said they preferred Obama, but are now undecided.
Two percent said they were undecided before the debate and still are now, and the remaining 1 percent said they were voting for a third-party candidate.
Is it over for Obama in Florida?
Has the president lost all hope of taking Florida again like he did in 2008?
Not according to our polling experts. There are still two presidential debates that could potentially swing voters again.
Our experts did add, however, that once a voter changes their mind from one candidate to the other, it's difficult to win back that vote.
Poll numbers in detail
QUESTION: Do you recognize the name ________?
(If yes) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of ________?
RECOGNIZE FAVORABLE | RECOGNIZE UNFAVORABLE | RECOGNIZE NEUTRAL |
DON'T RECOGNIZE |
|
Mitt Romney | 50% | 38% | 12% | — |
Paul Ryan | 48% | 35% | 14% | 3% |
Barack Obama | 45% | 49% | 6% | — |
Joe Biden | 39% | 46% | 14% | 1% |
- Compare: September 2012 Exclusive Poll
QUESTION: If the 2012 general election for president and vice president were held today, which one of the following tickets would get your vote?
- The Democratic ticket of Barack Obama & Joe Biden
- The Republican ticket of Mitt Romney & Paul Ryan
- The Libertarian ticket of Gary Johnson & James Gray
- One of the other party tickets
OBAMA |
ROMNEY |
OTHERS |
UNDECIDED |
|
STATE |
44% | 51% | 1% | 4% |
REGION |
OBAMA |
ROMNEY |
OTHERS |
UNDECIDED |
North Florida |
38% | 59% | — | 3% |
Central Florida |
46% | 52% | — | 2% |
Tampa Bay |
44% | 52% | 1% | 3% |
Southwest Florida |
37% | 59% | — | 4% |
Southeast Florida |
54% | 42% | 1% | 3% |
SEX |
OBAMA |
ROMNEY |
OTHERS |
UNDECIDED |
Men |
39% | 56% | 1% | 4% |
Women |
49% | 47% | — | 4% |
AGE |
OBAMA |
ROMNEY |
OTHERS |
UNDECIDED |
18–34 |
53% | 40% | — | 7% |
35–49 |
43% | 52% | — | 5% |
50–64 |
39% | 54% | 1% | 6% |
65+ |
45% | 52% | 1% | 2% |
RACE |
OBAMA |
ROMNEY |
OTHERS |
UNDECIDED |
White |
34% | 61% | 1% | 4% |
Black |
94% | 5% | — | 1% |
Hispanic |
44% | 46% | — | 10% |
PARTY |
OBAMA |
ROMNEY |
OTHERS |
UNDECIDED |
Democrat |
82% | 14% | — | 4% |
Republican |
4% | 94% | — | 2% |
Independent |
39% | 52% | 3% | 6% |
- Compare: September 2012 Exclusive Poll
QUESTION: Which one of the following best describes how the presidential debate influenced your voting decision?
Supported Obama before the debate and still support him | 44% |
Supported Romney before the debate and still support him | 44% |
Was undecided, but now for Romney | 5% |
Support Obama, but now for Romney | 2% |
Support Obama before the debate, but now undecided | 2% |
Undecided before the debate and still undecided | 2% |
For other candidate | 1% |
Supported Romney, but now for Obama | — |
Supported Romney before the debate, but now undecided | — |
Was undecided, but now for Obama | — |
- Compare: September 2012 Exclusive Poll
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama's job performance as president?
APPROVE |
DISAPPROVE |
NOT SURE |
|
STATE |
44% | 54% | 2% |
REGION |
APPROVE |
DISAPPROVE |
NOT SURE |
North Florida |
39% | 59% | 2% |
Central Florida |
40% | 58% | 2% |
Tampa Bay |
44% | 54% | 2% |
Southwest Florida |
35% | 64% | 1% |
Southeast Florida |
54% | 44% | 2% |
SEX |
APPROVE |
DISAPPROVE |
NOT SURE |
Men |
38% | 60% | 2% |
Women |
49% | 49% | 2% |
RACE |
APPROVE |
DISAPPROVE |
NOT SURE |
White |
34% | 65% | 2% |
Black |
91% | 6% | 3% |
Hispanic |
53% | 44% | 3% |
PARTY |
APPROVE |
DISAPPROVE |
NOT SURE |
Democrat |
82% | 16% | 2% |
Republican |
5% | 93% | 2% |
Independent |
39% | 59% | 2% |
- Compare: September 2012 Exclusive Poll
QUESTION: Would you say that things in the country are on the right track or would you say they are on the wrong track?
RIGHT |
WRONG |
NOT SURE |
|
STATE |
41% | 54% | 5% |
REGION |
RIGHT |
WRONG |
NOT SURE |
North Florida |
33% | 63% | 4% |
Central Florida |
36% | 59% | 5% |
Tampa Bay |
41% | 56% | 3% |
Southwest Florida |
36% | 59% | 5% |
Southeast Florida |
51% | 42% | 7% |
SEX |
RIGHT |
WRONG |
NOT SURE |
Men |
38% | 58% | 4% |
Women |
43% | 51% | 6% |
RACE |
RIGHT |
WRONG |
NOT SURE |
White |
34% | 63% | 3% |
Black |
78% | 12% | 10% |
Hispanic |
42% | 49% | 9% |
PARTY |
RIGHT |
WRONG |
NOT SURE |
Democrat |
74% | 20% | 6% |
Republican |
6% | 91% | 3% |
Independent |
35% | 58% | 7% |
- Compare: September 2012 Exclusive Poll
QUESTION: Are you better off today than you were four years ago?
YES |
NO |
NOT SURE |
|
STATE |
44% | 50% | 6% |
REGION |
YES |
NO |
NOT SURE |
North Florida |
40% | 55% | 5% |
Central Florida |
35% | 58% | 7% |
Tampa Bay |
42% | 51% | 7% |
Southwest Florida |
39% | 56% | 5% |
Southeast Florida |
57% | 37% | 6% |
SEX |
YES |
NO |
NOT SURE |
Men |
41% | 55% | 4% |
Women |
46% | 46% | 8% |
RACE |
YES |
NO |
NOT SURE |
White |
39% | 55% | 6% |
Black |
73% | 22% | 5% |
Hispanic |
37% | 53% | 10% |
PARTY |
YES |
NO |
NOT SURE |
Democrat |
73% | 20% | 7% |
Republican |
13% | 83% | 4% |
Independent |
43% | 51% | 6% |
- Compare: September 2012 Exclusive Poll
QUESTION: Who do you trust more to improve the economy – Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
OBAMA |
ROMNEY |
NOT SURE |
|
STATE |
44% | 50% | 6% |
REGION |
OBAMA |
ROMNEY |
NOT SURE |
North Florida |
36% | 59% | 5% |
Central Florida |
39% | 54% | 7% |
Tampa Bay |
41% | 52% | 7% |
Southwest Florida |
39% | 56% | 5% |
Southeast Florida |
56% | 38% | 6% |
SEX |
OBAMA |
ROMNEY |
NOT SURE |
Men |
41% | 55% | 4% |
Women |
46% | 47% | 7% |
AGE |
OBAMA |
ROMNEY |
NOT SURE |
18–34 |
54% | 40% | 6% |
35–49 |
41% | 55% | 4% |
50–64 |
42% | 52% | 4% |
65+ |
44% | 53% | 3% |
RACE |
OBAMA |
ROMNEY |
NOT SURE |
White |
37% | 58% | 5% |
Black |
84% | 11% | 5% |
Hispanic |
39% | 48% | 13% |
PARTY |
OBAMA |
ROMNEY |
NOT SURE |
Democrat |
83% | 13% | 4% |
Republican |
4% | 92% | 4% |
Independent |
39% | 54% | 7% |
- Compare: September 2012 Exclusive Poll
QUESTION: Who do you trust more on foreign policy – Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
OBAMA |
ROMNEY |
NOT SURE |
|
STATE |
46% | 49% | 5% |
REGION |
OBAMA |
ROMNEY |
NOT SURE |
North Florida |
39% | 57% | 4% |
Central Florida |
46% | 51% | 3% |
Tampa Bay |
46% | 48% | 6% |
Southwest Florida |
40% | 58% | 2% |
Southeast Florida |
53% | 40% | 7% |
SEX |
OBAMA |
ROMNEY |
NOT SURE |
Men |
39% | 58% | 3% |
Women |
52% | 42% | 6% |
AGE |
OBAMA |
ROMNEY |
NOT SURE |
18–34 |
53% | 42% | 5% |
35–49 |
45% | 52% | 3% |
50–64 |
44% | 49% | 7% |
65+ |
46% | 49% | 5% |
RACE |
OBAMA |
ROMNEY |
NOT SURE |
White |
38% | 57% | 5% |
Black |
91% | 6% | 3% |
Hispanic |
45% | 49% | 6% |
PARTY |
OBAMA |
ROMNEY |
NOT SURE |
Democrat |
82% | 13% | 5% |
Republican |
7% | 91% | 2% |
Independent |
47% | 49% | 4% |
- Compare: September 2012 Exclusive Poll
QUESTION: Who do you trust more to look out for the middle class – Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
OBAMA |
ROMNEY |
NOT SURE |
|
STATE |
47% | 50% | 3% |
REGION |
OBAMA |
ROMNEY |
NOT SURE |
North Florida |
37% | 61% | 2% |
Central Florida |
46% | 51% | 3% |
Tampa Bay |
46% | 48% | 6% |
Southwest Florida |
40% | 56% | 4% |
Southeast Florida |
57% | 42% | 1% |
SEX |
OBAMA |
ROMNEY |
NOT SURE |
Men |
44% | 55% | 1% |
Women |
50% | 46% | 4% |
AGE |
OBAMA |
ROMNEY |
NOT SURE |
18–34 |
54% | 43% | 3% |
35–49 |
45% | 51% | 4% |
50–64 |
47% | 51% | 2% |
65+ |
46% | 51% | 3% |
RACE |
OBAMA |
ROMNEY |
NOT SURE |
White |
38% | 60% | 2% |
Black |
94% | 2% | 4% |
Hispanic |
45% | 46% | 9% |
PARTY |
OBAMA |
ROMNEY |
NOT SURE |
Democrat |
84% | 11% | 5% |
Republican |
7% | 92% | 1% |
Independent |
44% | 51% | 5% |
- Compare: September 2012 Exclusive Poll
QUESTION: Who do you consider more trustworthy to lead the nation – Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
OBAMA |
ROMNEY |
NOT SURE |
|
STATE |
46% | 51% | 3% |
REGION |
OBAMA |
ROMNEY |
NOT SURE |
North Florida |
40% | 56% | 4% |
Central Florida |
45% | 53% | 2% |
Tampa Bay |
47% | 51% | 2% |
Southwest Florida |
39% | 56% | 5% |
Southeast Florida |
52% | 45% | 3% |
SEX |
OBAMA |
ROMNEY |
NOT SURE |
Men |
42% | 56% | 2% |
Women |
51% | 46% | 3% |
AGE |
OBAMA |
ROMNEY |
NOT SURE |
18–34 |
51% | 45% | 4% |
35–49 |
42% | 55% | 3% |
50–64 |
45% | 52% | 3% |
65+ |
48% | 49% | 3% |
RACE |
OBAMA |
ROMNEY |
NOT SURE |
White |
37% | 60% | 3% |
Black |
93% | 3% | 4% |
Hispanic |
40% | 53% | 7% |
PARTY |
OBAMA |
ROMNEY |
NOT SURE |
Democrat |
84% | 13% | 3% |
Republican |
5% | 93% | 2% |
Independent |
42% | 54% | 4% |
- Compare: September 2012 Exclusive Poll
QUESTION: Whose plans do you think are more likely to do more long term harm to Medicare – Barack Obama's or Mitt Romney's?
OBAMA |
ROMNEY |
NOT SURE |
|
STATE |
54% | 40% | 6% |
REGION |
OBAMA |
ROMNEY |
NOT SURE |
North Florida |
60% | 36% | 4% |
Central Florida |
56% | 39% | 5% |
Tampa Bay |
58% | 37% | 5% |
Southwest Florida |
60% | 32% | 8% |
Southeast Florida |
44% | 48% | 8% |
SEX |
OBAMA |
ROMNEY |
NOT SURE |
Men |
58% | 39% | 3% |
Women |
51% | 40% | 9% |
AGE |
OBAMA |
ROMNEY |
NOT SURE |
18–34 |
39% | 52% | 9% |
35–49 |
59% | 33% | 8% |
50–64 |
56% | 39% | 5% |
65+ |
54% | 43% | 3% |
RACE |
OBAMA |
ROMNEY |
NOT SURE |
White |
64% | 31% | 5% |
Black |
10% | 83% | 7% |
Hispanic |
47% | 41% | 12% |
PARTY |
OBAMA |
ROMNEY |
NOT SURE |
Democrat |
26% | 69% | 5% |
Republican |
86% | 7% | 7% |
Independent |
58% | 37% | 5% |
The telephone survey of 800 registered Florida voters — all likely to vote in the November election — was conducted Oct. 8–10 for the Tampa Bay Times, Miami Herald, El Nuevo Herald, Bay News 9 and News 13.
The poll, which included respondents using land-lines and cell phones, was conducted by Mason-Dixon, a nonpartisan, Jacksonville-based company. The margin of error is 3.5 percentage points.