Exclusive Poll: Nelson pulling ahead of Mack in Senate race

It's been a fierce battle for Florida's U.S. Senate seat, and with just days to go, Sen. Bill Nelson may finally be pulling ahead of Republican challenger Connie Mack IV.

A Tampa Bay Times, Bay News 9 Exclusive Statewide Polls shows the incumbent senator getting closer to the 50 percent mark, with 49 percent of Florida voters saying Nelson will get their vote, compared to 43 percent for Mack. At this point, only 4 percent of voters remain undecided. An additional 4 percent say they plan to vote for one of the independent candidates, Chris Borgia or Bill Gaylor.

Jump to: Poll numbers in detail

In response to the results, Nelson spokesperson Dan McLaughlin said, "Every recent poll has Sen. Nelson leading anywhere from six points to a margin 13.  But we’re not taking anything for granted.  The only poll that counts is the one on Election Day.  And until then Sen. Nelson is continuing to campaign hard all across the state."

Mack continues to struggle with his favorability rating. The Congressman only received a 33 percent favorability rating compared to 41 percent for Nelson. Nelson also received a 48 percent approval rating for the job he's been doing in Washington - another key factor that could make the difference on November 6. 

When asked who they trust to look out for Florida's interests in Washington, 48 percent said Nelson compared to 42 percent for Mack. Voters have little difference in opinion on who would support policies that will improve the economy - 48 percent for Nelson compared to 44 percent for Mack - and who will support policies that will improve healthcare - 47 percent for Nelson versus 44 percent for Mack.

This, despite the attack ads that are having a slight impact on voters' decisions. When asked about the criticism against each candidate - Nelson for supporting President Barack Obama's policies and Mack for questionable personal behavior and low attendance record in Congress - 43 percent said the criticism of Nelson is influencing their decisions. Thirty-eight percent are influenced by the attacks against Mack. But, perhaps more interesting, with all that money being spent on ads, 19 percent of Florida voters say the ads are having no effect on them.

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Breaking Down the Numbers

The difference on Election Day could be the undecided voters making their decisions.

In a poll conducted in October, 7 percent of voters were undecided. In this most recent poll, that number has dropped to 4 percent. A look at the party breakdown shows independent voters are giving a greater amount of support to Nelson. More than half, 51 percent of those polled, say they plan to vote for or have voted for Nelson. Mack, on the other hand, is only receiving support from 37 percent of supporters. Eight percent of this group still say they don't know which candidate will get their vote.

With the support of independents as well as two independent candidates in the race, it appears Nelson could potentially win the race with under 50 percent of the vote. As these poll results show, the two independent candidates may pull enough of the votes away from Mack to allow that to happen.

Nelson also holds an 11 point lead among women.

The candidates' support varies throughout the state.

Central Florida, which used to throw their support behind Nelson for his role in the Space Program, now has begun to shift their support, with 47 percent voting for Mack and only 45 percent in favor of Nelson. Tampa bay voters, though, continue to give Nelson their votes, 52 percent to 43 percent.

Nelson also shows an extreme lead in Southeast Florida with 60 percent of voters there leaning towards the Democrat.

Connie Mack's disorganization may also be what continues to plague his campaign.

Attacks against an incumbent senator's voting record should normally be reason for voters to vote the other way, but in this race, unfavorable votes in Senate are having about as much of an impact as personal attacks over trivial matters.

And, in a race where voters' allegiance to their parties is not all that strong, support for Romney may not be enough to sway voters for Mack at the polls.

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Poll numbers in detail

QUESTION: Do you recognize the name ________?
(If yes) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of ________?

QUESTION: If the 2012 general election for Florida's U.S. Senate seat were held today, which one of the following candidates would get your vote?

• Bill Nelson, the democrat
  
• Connie Mack IV, the republican
• Chris Borgia, independent
  
• Bill Gaylor, independent
  

** Borgia 3%
** Gaylor 1%

QUESTION: In the Senate race, who do you feel is more likely to support policies that will improve the economy - Bill Nelson or Connie Mack?

QUESTION: In the Senate race, who do you feel is more likely to support policies that will improve healthcare - Bill Nelson or Connie Mack?

QUESTION: Who do you trust more to look out for Florida's interests in Washington - Bill Nelson or Connie Mack?

QUESTION: Which of the following has had more influence on your vote in the U.S. Senate race:

- Criticism of incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson for voting in favor of President Obama's policies, including his economic stimulus plan and healthcare reform law.

- Criticism of Republican challenger Congressman Connie Mack IV for questionable personal behavior, having a low attendance record and missing votes in Congress.

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The telephone survey of 800 registered Florida voters - all likely to vote in the November election - was conducted Oct. 30-Nov. 1 for the Tampa Bay Times, Miami Herald, El Nuevo Herald, Bay News 9 and Central Florida News 13. The poll, which included respondents using land-lines and cell phones, was conducted by Mason-Dixon, a nonpartisan, Jacksonville-based company. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.