July 2012 Florida Decides Poll: Obama, Romney running nearly a dead heat in Florida

Originally posted Saturday, July 14, 2012.

Florida may have voted for Barack Obama in 2008, but the sitting president will have a tight race on his hands if he wants a repeat in November.

According to a Tampa Bay Times, Bay News 9 statewide poll, Obama and republican Mitt Romney are in a virtual dead heat in Florida, with Obama getting 46 percent of the vote and Romney 45 percent. Another 2 percent say they plan to vote for libertarian Gary Johnson and 7 percent remain undecided at this time.

Obama is struggling with overall job approval. Half of the people polled say they disapprove of the job he's doing, compared to to 46 percent who approve. The president is even lacking support among his own party, with 15 percent of Florida Democrats saying they disapprove of Obama's job performance the past four years.

Fifty-four percent also say the country is on the wrong track, including nearly a quarter of Democrat, and many believe the man who ran on a campaign for change, isn't changing things for the better.

Economy has been the issue top of mind for the majority of Americans, but 41 percent of Floridians say Obama's actions to stabilize the economy have only made it worse. Only 35 percent say his efforts have improved the economic situation, and 22 percent say it's had no effect at all.

The economy may be where Mitt Romney's background could serve the presumed Republican nominee well among Florida voters.

While 39 percent of people say the man with a personal wealth of about $240 million is out of touch with the average American, 46 percent say that financial success can serve as an inspiration to other people.

As for his business background, Romney's dealings with Bain Capital, the Boston-based venture capital group he founded in 1984 have drawn criticism. But many Floridians (47 percent) think his business experience overall shows he has the skills to better manage the government and improve the economy. Only 38 percent of those polled say Romney is more concerned about making money, and his practices, in many instances, have unnecessarily cost people their jobs.

A Closer Look

By taking a closer look at the numbers, there appears to remain a racial divide between the two candidates, with 93 percent of black voters throwing their support behind Obama. Hispanics, too, are leaning toward keeping the current president in office. Among white voters, though, Romney has the edge, taking 53 percent of the vote.

One challenge for Obama may be his ability to get Republicans to vote for him. Only 5 percent of republicans polled plan to vote for Obama, compared to 12 percent of Democrats who plan to vote for the Republican candidate. Independents are generally split, with 46 percent for Obama and 41 percent for Romney.

Romney also holds stronger male support, while women favor Obama.

VP Pick

Florida Senator Marco Rubio has been mentioned as a possible pick for Romney's vice presidential running mate, in part, because of his potential to help Romney win Florida. But, according to the poll, Rubio may not make a significant difference.

With Rubio as his running mate, the Republican ticket only gets a slight uptick from voters - 46 percent to 45 percent for Obama/Biden. And, among Hispanics, a demographic many thought Rubio would help bring to the republican ticket, the divide remains evenly split with 44 percent voting Republican and 43 percent leaning Domocrat.

STATEWIDE NAME RECOGNITION

Do recognize the name ....?

(If yes) Do you have  afavorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of ....?

Question: If the 2012 general election for president were held today, which one of the following candidates would get your vote:

• Barack Obama, the Democrat
  
• Mitt Romney, the Republican
  
• Gary Johnson, the Libertarian
  

Question: Do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama’s job performance as president?

Question: Would you say that things in the country are on the right track or would you say they are on the wrong track?

Question: Do you feel President Obama’s actions to stabilize the economy have:

• Improved the nation’s economic situation
  
• Worsened the nation’s economic situation
  
• Had little effect on the nation’s economic situation   
  

STATEWIDE NAME RECOGNITION

Do recognize the name ....?

(If yes) Do you have  afavorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of ....?

Question: If Mitt Romney chose Marco Rubio as his vice presidential running mate, would you vote for:

• The Democratic ticket of Barack Obama & Joe Biden
• The Republican ticket of Mitt Romney & Marco Rubio
• The Libertarian ticket of Gary Johnson & James Gray

Question: Which one of following positions is closest to your view of Mitt Romney’s personal wealth, which is estimated at $240 million: (ORDER ROTATED)

• His wealth and lifestyle make him out of touch with the average American
• His wealth and lifestyle is a sign of success that can inspire the average American

Question: Which one of following positions is closest to your view of Mitt Romney’s business background (ORDER ROTATED)

• It shows he has the skills to better manage the government and improve the economy
• It shows he is more concerned about making money and his practices in many instances have unnecessarily cost people their jobs in order to earn profits

The poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, Inc. of Jacksonville, Florida from July 9 - July 11, 2012. A total of 800 registered voters were interviewed by telephone. The margin of error is +/-3.5%.