Exclusive Statewide Poll: Complete results

It is a critical time for Florida voters, with the presidential election less than four months away, we’ve put together information that gauges where Florida stands on the major issues that can decide who will become America’s next leader.

For some voters, their decision can come down to one thing. Others, it can be a range of issues.

We’re breaking down the issues that matter most to you in our exclusive Tampa Bay Times, Bay News 9 poll. We asked the voters a variety of questions ranging from governor Scott’s job performance to Pres. Obama’s handling of the economy to Florida’s controversial Stand Your Ground law.

The 800 registered voters were interviewed all across Florida from July 9 through July 11 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Jacksonville.

Highlights of the results

- Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are essentially tied in Florida at this point of the 2012 presidential campaign. Obama holds a slim 46%-45% lead over Romney, but if Romney picks Florida Senator Marco Rubio as his vice presidential running mate, the results flip and give Romney a 46%-45% lead.

- Senator Bill Nelson continues to face a competitive re-election race. Nelson leads likely GOP challenger Connie Mack IV 47%-42%. This is slightly better than his 45%-42% margin in January, but the incumbent Democrat’s support remains under 50% and his popularity is mixed.

- Rick Scott continues to remain relatively unpopular with state voters. His approval rating is down slightly, as his personal popularity.

- President Obama’s job rating is unchanged since January, and still remains “under water”. Statewide 46% approve of Obama’s job performance (the same as in January), while 50% disapprove (up from 49%).

- Obama suffers in Florida because 54% believe the country is on the “wrong track”, only 35% believe his policies have improved the economy and 52% oppose his health care law.

- Romney’s personal wealth and business background are currently viewed in a generally favorable light, but he needs to make it stronger for it to be an effective center piece of his campaign.

- A majority of Florida voters disapprove of the Obama healthcare law, most feel it will make the quality of health care “worse”, most want the state to “opt out” of elements that are not mandated and half support a repeal of the law.

- Florida voters support giving police the right to check the citizenship of people who are stopped for a violation or have committed a crime, but also support immigration reform that would create a pathway to citizenship and support President Obama’s decision to protect some younger illegal immigrants from being deported.

- State voters strongly support the “Stand Your Ground” law, but are evenly divided whether or not Trayvon Martin killer George Zimmerman acted in self defense under that law.

Florida poll regions

• NORTH FLORIDA: Voters interviewed in Escambia, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Bay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gulf, Liberty, Walton, Washington, Holmes, Jackson, Gadsden, Hamilton, Jefferson, Lafayette, Leon, Madison, Suwannee, Taylor, Wakulla, Baker, Bradford, Clay, Columbia, Duval, Nassau, Putnam, St, Johns, Flagler, Union, Alachua, Dixie, Gilchrist and Levy counties.
• CENTRAL FLORIDA: Voters interviewed in Brevard, Lake, Marion, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, Citrus, Sumter, Volusia, and Indian River counties.
• TAMPA BAY: Voters interviewed in Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, Pinellas and Polk counties.
• SOUTHEAST FLORIDA: Voters interviewed in Okeechobee, St. Lucie, Martin, Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade and Monroe counties.
• SOUTHWEST FLORIDA: Voters interviewed in DeSoto, Glades, Hardee, Hendry, Highlands, Manatee, Sarasota, Charlotte, Collier and Lee counties.
  

QUESTION: Florida’s “Stand Your Ground” law states that a person is justified to use deadly force to defend themselves if they reasonably believe that such force is necessary to prevent imminent death, great bodily harm or to prevent the commission of a forcible felony.  A citizen has no duty to retreat and if it is determined that their use of force was justified they are immune from criminal prosecution and civil action.

The “Stand Your Ground” law does not apply if the victim initially provokes the use of force or if they are involved in a felony crime.

Do you support or oppose keeping Florida’s “Stand Your Ground” law as it is currently written?  

(IF “OPPOSED” OR “NOT SURE”) Do you feel Florida’s “Stand Your Ground” law should be modified to permit its use in fewer situations, or do you feel the law should be repealed in its entirety?

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of Rick Scott’s job performance as governor?

QUESTION: Do you support or oppose the plan being implemented by Governor Scott and state elections officials to purge the Florida voter roles of persons who are non-U.S. citizens?

QUESTION: Do you recognize the name ....?
(IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of ... ?

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of Rick Scott’s job performance as governor?

QUESTION: Do you support or oppose requiring Floridians to provide photo identification at the polls in order to vote in an election?

QUESTION: Do you support or oppose the plan being implemented by Governor Scott and state elections officials to purge the Florida voter roles of persons who are non-U.S. citizens?

STATEWIDE NAME RECOGNITION

Do recognize the name ....?

(If yes) Do you have  afavorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of ....?

Question: If the 2012 general election for president were held today, which one of the following candidates would get your vote:

• Barack Obama, the Democrat
  
• Mitt Romney, the Republican
  
• Gary Johnson, the Libertarian
  

Question: Do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama’s job performance as president?

Question: Would you say that things in the country are on the right track or would you say they are on the wrong track?

Question: Do you feel President Obama’s actions to stabilize the economy have:

• Improved the nation’s economic situation
  
• Worsened the nation’s economic situation
  
• Had little effect on the nation’s economic situation   
  

STATEWIDE NAME RECOGNITION

Do recognize the name ....?

(If yes) Do you have  afavorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of ....?

Question: If Mitt Romney chose Marco Rubio as his vice presidential running mate, would you vote for:

• The Democratic ticket of Barack Obama & Joe Biden
• The Republican ticket of Mitt Romney & Marco Rubio
• The Libertarian ticket of Gary Johnson & James Gray

Question: Which one of following positions is closest to your view of Mitt Romney’s personal wealth, which is estimated at $240 million: (ORDER ROTATED)

• His wealth and lifestyle make him out of touch with the average American
• His wealth and lifestyle is a sign of success that can inspire the average American

Question: Which one of following positions is closest to your view of Mitt Romney’s business background (ORDER ROTATED)

• It shows he has the skills to better manage the government and improve the economy
• It shows he is more concerned about making money and his practices in many instances have unnecessarily cost people their jobs in order to earn profits

Question: Would you support or oppose having Florida enact a law that would give state and local law enforcement the power to ask people already stopped for possible violations of the law to show proof they are in the country legally and then arrest those that could not provide such proof?

Question: Would you support or oppose immigration reform legislation that allowed all of those who are living here without legal status to be given the opportunity to stay and apply for citizenship?

Question: Do you support or oppose President Obama’s executive decision to allow some younger illegal immigrants to stay in the country and not face deportation?

Question: If the 2012 general election for Florida’s U.S. Senate seat were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Bill Nelson, the Democrat, and Connie Mack IV, the Republican?

STATEWIDE NAME RECOGNITION

Do you recognize the name (either Bill Nelson or Connie Mack IV)?

(IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of the candidate?

Question: Do you support or oppose the Patient Affordability Act, the health care reform plan that was signed into law by President Obama?

Question: Do you feel the Obama health care law will:

• Make the nation's health care system better
• Make the nation's health care system worse
• Not significantly change the nation's health care system

Question: The U.S. Supreme Court recently upheld the constitutionality of most of the Obama healthcare law, but it struck down several provisions that required state governments to participate. Do you feel Florida should:

• Go ahead and comply with the state requirements that are in the healthcare law?
• “Opt out” and not comply with the parts of the healthcare law that the court ruled are only optional for states to participate in?

Question: At this point, do you want to keep the new healthcare law, or do you want it repealed?

HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Jacksonville, Florida from July 9 through July 11, 2012. A total of 800 registered voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they were likely to vote in the November general election.

Those interviewed were randomly selected from a phone-matched Florida voter registration list that included both land-line and cell phone numbers. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turn-out by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than ±3.5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all voters were surveyed. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or party grouping.