Watches and warnings have been issued up and down the Caribbean as Tropical Storm Isaac continues to move rapidly into the region, as the system's potential path steadily raises anxiety in the Bay area.
According to Bay News 9 Chief Meteorologist Mike Clay, Isaac showed signs of "getting its act together" for several days and reached tropical storm strength after an Air Force Recon Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the system Tuesday afternoon.
At 11 p.m., the system was located about 390 miles east of Guadeloupe and still moving west at 18 mph with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph.
"The storm is not very well-organized, but the winds were at 40 mph and it could become hurricane as it moves into the Caribbean," Clay said when the storm was upgraded Tuesday. "It is too early to know if Isaac is a threat to Florida, as some models bring it to the east and others to the west of the Sunshine State."
The latest computer models show Isaac tracking west into the Caribbean Sea, where numerous variables would determine whether it threatens Florida or any other part of the southeastern United States. A Hurricane Watch was issued Tuesday night for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Much of the region around Isaac is under a Tropical Storm Watch or Warning.
"It is expected to strengthen and will be in the Caribbean by late Wednesday," Clay said. "Most computer models are showing some turning to the north by Friday."
The storm could affect Florida if it tracks northwest and the Carolinas remain in play with the storm still so far out in the Atlantic. If the storm moves close to the mainland U.S., it would be sometime between Monday to Wednesday.
And, of course, the question remains as to what impact, if any, it could have on the Republican National Convention scheduled to run Monday through Thursday.
"We understand that there is a bit more urgency as it would potentially time out during the middle of the Republican National Convention," Clay said, "but at this point, it is too early to tell exactly.
Bay News 9 Meteorologist Diane Kacmarik said this is "definitely the storm to watch." She added that if the storm stays south of Florida, our forecast will be for drier weather.
Another system to the southeast of Isaac and 550 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is also being watched, Bay News 9 Meteorologist Josh Linker said.
The system has a 70 percent chance of forming into a tropical system, possibly becoming Tropical Depression 10 in the next few days. "This one does not appear to be a threat to any land," Linker said. "In fact, the long range models have this system moving out to into the Atlantic."