Despite Tropical Storm Isaac's latest projected path putting the system's center over or near the Bay area sometime Monday, Bay News 9 Meteorologist Josh Linker stressed the storm's actual path could very easily go west or east of Florida.

"With an average error on Tropical Storm Isaac's forecast track still 5 days out," Bay News 9 Chief Meteorologist Mike Clay said earlier Wednesday, "the margin for error is 225 miles and forecasting how strong the storm will be this far out is not possible.

Isaac's Latest Track | LIVE BLOG: Isaac

At the 11 p.m. advisory, Isaac was 270 miles southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, with maximum sustained winds remaining at 45 mph. It was moving west at 20 mph and could become a hurricane by Thursday evening, according to Clay. Isaac is now in the Caribbean Sea.

Although there is good model agreement on bringing Isaac south of Puerto Rico and into Hispaniola, "we’ve looked very carefully at the details of the model solutions in days 4 and 5, and there is tremendous disagreement on the pattern, even within just one of the models," according to Clay said.

The storm is expected to eventually turn northwest, where it could very likely pose a serious threat to Florida and the Bay area.

Isaac, Hispaniola and Florida

The system is a substantial threat to Florida because of two high pressure systems that could steer the storm if it isn't broken up by mountains on its trek across the Caribbean. "The more the core of the storm interacts with the mountains of the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba, the more disrupted it will be," Linker said. "We're fearful for a terrible time for our friends on Hispaniola with an extended period of heavy rain from the system. The large circulation, however, will likely survive it's encounter with the high terrain, however much it is degraded."

"The expectation continues to be that the upper winds around the storm will evolve in a way that the core is able to develop, so Isaac is still expected to be near hurricane strength before it interacts with Hispaniola," Linker added.

The strength of the storm at that point will play into how quickly it turns north. The latest American computer forecast model (GFS) is determined to move a strengthening storm quickly out of the islands toward Florida. The European model (ECMWF) more slowly swings a significantly strengthening storm north of Cuba into the Gulf and toward the northern Gulf coast.

"Traditionally the most accurate forecast is a compromise between these two and other models," Linker said. "A weakness in the sub-tropical high could bring Isaac up toward Florida by the end of the weekend and early next week. Conditions appear to be very favorable for strengthening by that time."

There are three likely scenarios right now, according to Clay:

  • If the high pressure ridge in the Atlantic moves east quicker, Isaac might move to the east of Florida.
  • If it breaks down, Isaac will flow the weakness in the upper levels and come up over Florida.
  • If the ridge of high pressure holds just strong enough, Isaac might head more west into the Central Gulf.

"It's just too early to pin it down for sure. We should know more Thursday, and even more Friday when more information is inputted into the computer models," Linker said.

Where ever the storm goes over the next week, Clay and Linker said it is important not to focus on the storm icon's exact position or the center line, but rather the cone. "Remember, the average error on the forecast track at Day 5 is 225 miles and there is no skill in intensity forecasting out past a day or two."

A NOAA Recon plane based at Tampa's MacDill AFB left Barbados and performed a research mission into Isaac to test a new 3D radar on board Wednesday afternoon.

Isaac and the RNC

Although the chances the storm will hit the Tampa Bay area remain relatively low, the prospect of a major storm arriving the same week as the Republican National Convention is creating some anxiety.

Mayor Bob Buckhorn said Wednesday morning that Tampa won't hesitate to pull the plug on the Republican National Convention if Isaac threatens the Tampa Bay area as a major storm, but the convention is an all go as of Wednesday night. -- FULL REPORT

Gov. Rick Scott issued a statement on Tropical Storm Isaac on Wednesday:

"Although Tropical Storm Isaac is still far from Florida’s shores, we are closely tracking the potential for the storm to impact part or all of the state, including the Tampa Bay region during the Republican National Convention. 

"Florida’s state emergency management team and local emergency teams have been working closely with convention officials and have been planning for this event for more than a year, and the possibility of a hurricane hitting the convention has been part of that planning process."

___________________________________

MORE: After Debby, residents in flood prone areas warned to prepare for Isaac

___________________________________

Tropical Depression 10

Of less concern locally is Tropical Storm 10, which formed earlier today in the far eastern Atlantic and is expected to become Tropical Storm Joyce within the next couple of days.

The system is tracking northwest, and most computer models show it going far away from Florida. It is currently not a threat.