If the 2014 gubernatorial election were held today, Gov. Rick Scott might have to get to work somewhere else.
A Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9 exclusive statewide poll found Scott coming out on the losing end of two possible match-ups against contenders for the 2014 race.
In one scenario, respondents were asked about a possible rematch of the 2010 governor’s race between Scott and Democratic challenger Alex Sink. Nearly half of those who responded said they would vote for Sink, while only 39 percent said they would choose Scott. Fourteen percent said they were undecided.
The majority of Scott’s support comes from Republicans, 76 percent of whom said they would vote for Scott, while 78 percent of Democrats said they would vote for Sink. More independents said they would vote for Sink than Scott, with 46 percent of them choosing the Democrat over the incumbent governor.
The gap isn’t nearly so large when Scott is paired up against former Gov. Charlie Crist. Forty-two percent said they would vote for Scott and 44 percent said they would vote for Crist. The 2-percent gap falls squarely within the poll’s 3.5 percent margin of error.
Half of the women polled said they would vote for Sink or Crist over Scott. Only 35 percent of women would vote for Scott if he was up against Sink, while 38 percent would vote for him against Crist.
Men tend to be more supportive of the current governor. In a Scott/Sink election, 42 percent of men said they would vote for Scott, while 35 percent said they would choose Sink. With Crist as the challenger, 45 percent would vote for Scott, while 40 percent would choose Crist.
When polled about Scott's statewide name recognition, 35 percent of the voters who recognized his name said they had an unfavorable opinion of him. Thirty percent said they had a favorable opinion and 29 percent said they were neutral.
His numbers are similar to those for Crist, about whom 32 percent of voters said they had a favorable opinion of him, while 33 percent said they had an unfavorable opinion. Thirty-one percent said they were neutral.
Alex Sink had the lowest percentage of name recognition, with only 81 percent of those polled knowing who she is. However, among those who recognized her name, 35 percent had a favorable opinion of her. Only 15 percent said they had an unfavorable opinion, and 31 percent were neutral.
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Is Crist helping or hurting Obama?
At the Democratic National Convention earlier this month, we asked Charlie Crist if he had any intention of trying to win the 2014 election.
His response: "The only thought I have about that is I'm focused on re-electing President Obama."
But the poll found even the former governor's high-profile endorsement of President Barack Obama could do more harm than good.
When voters were asked if Crist's endorsement of the president made them more or less likely to vote for Obama, only 8 percent say they would be more likely to vote for the president, while 13 percent say less likely. Nearly 80 percent said it would have no effect on their decision.
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Half of Floridians disapprove of Scott’s job performance
Half of those polled disapprove of the job Scott has done as governor, with 50 percent saying they disapprove. Thirty-eight percent said they approve of the job he is doing, while 12 percent aren’t sure.
The approval numbers tend to split down party lines, with 76 percent of Democrats saying they disapprove of the job Scott has done. Sixty-four percent of Republicans said they approve.
However, among independents, only 41 percent approve of Scott’s performance, while 45 percent said they disapprove.
Scott’s disapproval numbers are highest in southeast Florida, where 58 percent of respondents said they didn’t approve of the job he was doing.
The highest approval numbers came from southwest Florida, where the same percentage of respondents – 45 percent – approve and disapprove of his job performance.
Only one part of the state had a greater number of respondents approve of his job performance. In North Florida, 43 percent of respondents said they approved of the job he was doing, while 41 percent disapprove.
Tampa Bay voters are slightly more approving of the job Scott has done than respondents from around the state, with 41 percent saying they approved. However, 47 percent of voters said they did not approve. Twelve percent said they aren’t sure how they feel about his job performance.
White voters tend to be more evenly split, with 43 percent approving of his job performance and 46 percent disapproving. Hispanic voters show a similar divide, with 39 percent approving and 42 percent disapproving.
Among black voters, however, Scott has very little approval. Only 6 percent approve of the job he has done. Eighty percent disapprove, while 14 percent said they aren’t sure.
Scott's approval numbers remain low even though 32 percent voters say the economy in Florida is getting better. Twenty-one percent of Floridians say they think the economy has gotten worse, and 45 percent said they think it has stayed the same.
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Comparison to earlier numbers
Scott has struggled with approval from Florida voters in the past. A July 2012 poll found that 51 percent of respondents said they didn’t approve of the job Scott was doing with the state.
His approval numbers have dipped since then. In July, 40 percent of voters said they approved of the job he is doing. That number has since dropped to 38 percent.
His approval numbers improved slightly in the Tampa Bay area. In July, 39 percent approved of the job he is doing while 52 percent disapproved. However, he has lost support in the southeast part of the state.
His ratings have remained fairly consistent with women, 56 percent of whom disapproved of him two months ago.
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Poll numbers in detail
STATEWIDE NAME RECOGNITION
Question: Do you recognize the name ... ?
| RECOGNIZE - FAVORABLE | RECOGNIZE - UNFAVORABLE | RECOGNIZE - NEUTRAL | DON'T RECOGNIZE | |
| Alex Sink | 35% | 15% | 31% | 19% |
| Charlie Crist | 32% | 33% | 31% | 4% |
| Rick Scott | 30% | 35% | 29% | 6% |
Question: If the 2014 general election for governor were held today, for who would you vote if the candidates were Alex Sink, the Democrat, and Rick Scott, the Republican?
| STATE | MEN | WOMEN | DEMS | REPS | INDS | |
| Sink | 47% | 46% | 50% | 78% | 10% | 46% |
| Scott | 39% | 42% | 35% | 8% | 76% | 39% |
| Undecided | 14% | 12% | 15% | 14% | 14% | 15% |
Question: If the 2014 general election for governor were held today, for who would you vote if the candidates were Charlie Crist, the Democrat, and Rick Scott, the Republican?
| STATE | MEN | WOMEN | DEMS | REPS | INDS | |
| Crist | 44% | 40% | 49% | 76% | 6% | 48% |
| Scott | 42% | 45% | 38% | 11% | 79% | 35% |
| Undecided | 14% | 15% | 13% | 13% | 15% | 17% |
Question: Does Charlie Crist's endorsement of President Obama make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama or does it have no effect on your voting decision?
| STATE | MEN | WOMEN | DEMS | REPS | INDS | VOTING OBAMA |
VOTING ROMNEY |
UNDECIDED | |
| More likely | 8% | 7% | 9% | 16% | 1% | 3% | 17% | - | 2% |
| Less likely | 13% | 11% | 11% | 6% | 19% | 17% | - | 27% | 3% |
| No effect | 79% | 78% | 80% | 78% | 80% | 80% | 83% | 73% | 95% |
Question: Do you approve or disapprove of Rick Scott's job performance as governor?
| APPROVE | DISAPPROVE | NOT SURE | |
| STATE | 38% | 50% | 12% |
| REGION | APPROVE | DISAPPROVE | NOT SURE |
| North Florida | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| Central Florida | 37% | 53% | 10% |
| Tampa Bay | 41% | 47% | 12% |
| Southwest Florida | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| Southeast Florida | 31% | 58% | 11% |
| SEX | APPROVE | DISAPPROVE | NOT SURE |
| Men | 46% | 43% | 11% |
| Women | 31% | 57% | 12% |
| RACE | APPROVE | DISAPPROVE | NOT SURE |
| White | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| Black | 6% | 80% | 14% |
| Hispanic | 39% | 42% | 19% |
| PARTY | APPROVE | DISAPPROVE | NOT SURE |
| Democrat | 14% | 76% | 10% |
| Republican | 64% | 24% | 12% |
| Independent | 41% | 45% | 14$ |
Question: Do you feel the economy in Florida is:
- Getting better
- Getting worse
- Staying about the same
| BETTER |
WORSE |
SAME |
NOT SURE |
|
| STATE |
32% |
21% |
45% |
2% |
| REGION |
BETTER | WORSE | SAME | NOT SURE |
| North Florida |
27% |
20% |
50% |
3% |
| Central Florida |
27% |
17% |
53% |
3% |
| Tampa Bay |
34% |
18% |
47% |
1% |
| Southwest Florida |
25% |
37% |
37% |
1% |
| Southeast Florida |
39% |
21% |
38% |
2% |
| SEX |
BETTER | WORSE | SAME | NOT SURE |
| Men |
28% |
24% |
47% |
1% |
| Women |
35% |
19% |
43% |
3% |
| RACE |
BETTER | WORSE | WORSE |
NOT SURE |
| White |
24% |
22% |
52% |
2% |
| Black |
79% |
3% |
17% |
1% |
| Hispanic |
33% |
32% |
29% |
6% |
| PARTY |
BETTER | WORSE | SAME | NOT SURE |
| Democrat |
56% |
2% |
41% |
1% |
| Republican |
5% |
44% |
49% |
2% |
| Independent |
34% |
18% |
46% |
2% |
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The telephone survey of 800 registered Florida voters - all likely to vote in the November election - was conducted Sept. 17-19 for the Tampa Bay Times, Miami Herald, El Nuevo Herald, Bay News 9 and Central Florida News 13. The poll, which included respondents using land-lines and cell phones, was conducted by Mason-Dixon, a nonpartisan, Jacksonville-based company. The margin of error is 3.5 percentage points.