U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson has a tight race for re-election ahead, but if the results of a new, exclusive poll of Florida voters have anything to say about it, Nelson could he be headed back to Washington for a third term.
A Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9 Exclusive Poll released Friday show the incumbent Democrat with an eight-point lead over Republican challenger Connie Mack IV.
When asked who would get their vote for U.S. Senate if the general election were held today, 48 percent of those polled chose Nelson, while 40 percent voiced their support for Mack.
Another 1 percent chose one of two independent candidates who will also be on the ballot -- Chris Borgia or Bill Gaylor.
But one very telling number is 11 percent that said they still haven't made up their mind about the Senate race. That's the same number of voters that said they were undecided two months ago in a July 2012 exclusive poll.
This time around, however, Nelson appears to be starting to open a gap in the race. In July's poll, his lead over Mack was 47–42 percent.
The Senate race is one thing Bay News 9's Republican and Democratic political analysts agree on: each believes Nelson has the race in the bag.
"It's going to be really hard to beat Bill Nelson," Republican analyst Chris Ingram said.
"Once people know who Connie Mack is and that he's not Connie Mack Sr. and where he stands on the issues, they'll start trending toward Bill Nelson," Democratic analyst Ana Cruz said.
A few months ago, Nelson looked vulnerable, but now, with our poll showing an 8 percent lead for the senator, Ingram said the Mack campaign missed their chance.
"There's an old saying, the Republican party never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity, and I think this is really is indicative of that," he said.
The pair are set to debate, which may potentially close the gap by wooing the undecided voters. Both analysts say that it's too little, too late for Mack, who refused to debate in the primary.
"Mack didn't do any debates," Ingram said. "He didn't do many editorial interviews. He didn't really give a chance for Floridians to get to know him, and I think he's paying a price for that right now."
Bill Nelson has held his office since 2000. The Melbourne native and current Orlando resident has spent 40 years in politics, and even flew on the space shuttle Columbia.
Connie Mack currently serves in Congress, representing Florida's 14th District, which includes his native Fort Myers, as well as Naples and Cape Coral, in Southwest Florida. He is the son of former U.S. Sen. Connie Mack III, who retired in 2000. Nelson then won the open seat, and was re-elected in 2006.
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How voters' opinions are changing
Nine percent of those polled still didn't recognize Connie Mack IV by name. Six percent said they didn't know who Nelson was.
One-third of those who did recognize the name Bill Nelson said they had a favorable opinion of him, while 29 percent said their opinion was unfavorable, and 32 percent described their opinion of Nelson as neutral.
Nelson's favorable status was down from July's exclusive poll, when 36 percent of voters held a favorable opinion of the sitting senator, 28 percent had an unfavorable opinion, and only 24 percent were neutral.
Mack, meanwhile, saw a big rise in voters who held an unfavorable opinion of him, from just 13 percent in July to 33 percent in September's poll. The latest numbers were higher than both his favorable rating, 27 percent, and neutral voters, 31 percent.
Why the big change? It likely has something to do with Nelson's recent political ads pointing to Mack's past "bad behavior." Those ads also appear to have helped Nelson widen his lead.
But while the latest poll shows Nelson is winning the day, that does not necessarily mean he can sustain that lead. As experts will tell you, the most important poll of all is the one we call "Election Day."
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Breaking down the numbers
In Nelson's native Central Florida, the incumbent Democrat's lead extends to nine points, holding 50–41 percent over Mack. Just 8 percent of Central Floridians said they were still undecided.
The gap is even wider in the Tampa Bay area, where 51 percent of those polled backed Nelson, 36 percent chose Mack, and 12 percent were undecided.
Nelson's largest lead is in Southeast Florida, where his lead jumps to 22 percentage points, at 54–32 over Mack. That area, however, was also tied for the largest number of undecided voters, at 13 percent.
Mack had the advantage in his home region of Southwest Florida, where he got 56 percent support over Nelson's 36 percent, with 8 percent undecided.
Voters in North Florida also favored Mack, but the Republican only had a seven-point lead there, up 47–40 percent over Nelson. In that area, 13 percent of voters still had made no decision.
More women favored Nelson, 54 percent to Mack's 34 percent, while Mack had the advantage among men, 47–41 percent over Nelson.
Eleven percent of both men and women polled said they were undecided, and 1 percent of both sexes chose one of the independents, either Borgia or Gaylor.
White and Hispanic voters were more evenly split, with Mack having a 4 percent lead among white voters, 46–42 percent; and Nelson with the 4 percent edge among Hispanics, 44–40 percent.
Black voters largely favored Nelson, 89 percent to just 4 percent supporting Mack. Seven percent of black voters said they were undecided, a smaller percentage than undecided white voters, 11 percent, and Hispanics, 14 percent.
Breaking it down by voters' party affiliation showed no surprises. More than four out of five Democrats, 81 percent, backed Nelson, and 76 percent of Republicans chose Mack.
Interestingly, 14 percent of Republicans said they were still undecided in the race. Only six percent of Democrats said the same.
Independent voters also favored Nelson, 53 percent to 34 percent who sided with Mack. Three percent chose one of the independent candidates on the ballot, and 10 percent were undecided.
Poll numbers in detail
Question: If the 2012 general election for Florida's U.S. Senate seat were held today, which one of the following candidates would get your vote...?
- Bill Nelson, the Democrat
- Connie Mack IV, the Republican
- Chris Borgia, Independent
- Bill Gaylor, Independent
| NELSON | MACK | OTHER | UNDECIDED | |
| STATE | 48% | 40% | 1% | 11% |
| REGION | NELSON | MACK | OTHER | UNDECIDED |
| North Florida | 40% | 47% | - | 13% |
| Central Florida | 50% | 41% | 1% | 8% |
| Tampa Bay | 51% | 36% | 1% | 12% |
| Southwest Florida | 36% | 56% | - | 8% |
| Southeast Florida | 54% | 32% | 1% | 13% |
| SEX | NELSON | MACK | OTHER | UNDECIDED |
| Men | 41% | 47% | 1% | 11% |
| Women | 54% | 34% | 1% | 11% |
| RACE | NELSON | MACK | OTHER | UNDECIDED |
| White | 42% | 46% | 1% | 11% |
| Black | 89% | 4% | - | 7% |
| Hispanic | 44% | 40% | 2% | 14% |
| PARTY | NELSON | MACK | OTHER | UNDECIDED |
| Democrat | 81% | 11% | - | 6% |
| Republican | 9% | 76% | 1% | 14% |
| Independent | 53% | 34% | 3% | 10% |
Question: Do you recognize the name ... ?
- Bill Nelson
- Connie Mack IV
| RECOGNIZE FAVORABLE | RECOGNIZE UNFAVORABLE | RECOGNIZE NEUTRAL | DON'T RECOGNIZE | |
| Bill Nelson | 33% | 29% | 32% | 6% |
| Connie Mack IV | 27% | 33% | 31% | 9 |
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The telephone survey of 800 registered Florida voters -- all likely to vote in the November election -- was conducted Sept. 17–19 for the Tampa Bay Times, Miami Herald, El Nuevo Herald, Bay News 9 and News 13.
The poll, which included respondents using land lines and cell phones, was conducted by Mason-Dixon, a nonpartisan, Jacksonville-based company. The margin of error is 3.5 percentage points.