Sept. 2012 Exclusive Poll: More decided voters in presidential race

It could be the biggest question facing Americans today: Who will be the next president of the United States?

The results of a Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9 Exclusive Poll are in, and they point to another November nailbiter in Florida, with only one percentage point separating President Barack Obama from Republican nominee Mitt Romney.

When asked which ticket would get their vote if the presidential election were held today, 48 percent of Florida voters chose the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and 47 percent favored the Republican ticket of Romney and Paul Ryan.

One percent of those polled went with the Libertarian ticket of Gary Johnson and James Gray, and another 4 percent said they were still undecided.

• In Depth: Jump to view the poll numbers in detail ▼

The numbers were very similar to those from a similar exclusive poll from July 2012. In that poll, 46 percent chose Obama, and 45 percent favored Romney.

The difference this time around: More Floridians have made up their mind. In July, 7 percent said they were undecided.

Obama won Florida in 2008 by just 3 percentage points over Republican John McCain.

———————————————

I-4 Corridor split

We've heard time and time again how important the I-4 Corridor, the swing of the swing state, will be come November.

Both the Obama and Romney campaigns have been stumping hard across the battleground state of Florida, focusing especially on Central Florida and the Tampa Bay area, where the latest poll results show the two are still neck-and-neck.

In Central Florida, Romney has the advantage, but only slightly, with a 48–47 percent lead over Obama.

Obama has picked up momentum among Tampa Bay voters, who favored the president 49 percent over 45 percent for Romney, and another 1 percent in Tampa Bay who picked the Libertarian Johnson.

Five percent of voters in both Central Florida and Tampa Bay said they remain undecided.

The biggest lead by region goes to Romney in Southwest Florida, where he was up 59 percent to Obama's 37 percent. Four percent in Southwest Florida were still undecided.

Obama held almost as big of a lead in Southeast Florida, up 58–37 percent over Romney, with 4 percent undecided, and the remaining 1 percent picking Johnson.

Romney also held a notable lead in North Florida, where he had a 56–39 percent advantage over Obama. Again, 4 percent in North Florida were undecided, and 1 percent backed Johnson.

• Poll numbers in detail ▼

———————————————

Breaking down the numbers

Digging deeper into the numbers, President Obama held a 52–43 percent lead over Romney when it comes to the critically important Hispanic vote in Florida. Five percent of Florida Hispanics were still undecided.

Among black voters in Florida, 95 percent said they would vote for Obama, with only 4 percent backing Romney, and 1 percent saying they were undecided.

Romney had a 15-point advantage among white voters, up 55–40 percent over Obama. One percent of white voters chose the Libertarian ticket, and 4 percent were undecided.

The vote was also different between men and women voters. Men leaned toward Romney 53–42 percent, while women favored Obama 55–40 percent. One percent of both men and women said they would vote for Gary Johnson, and 4 percent of both men and women said they were still undecided.

The Libertarian vote was highest in the 35–49 age bracket, in which 2 percent of voters said they preferred Gary Johnson. The top two candidates were again separated by just 1 percent, with Obama on the winning side, 48–47 percent. Three percent said they were undecided.

Among Florida's youngest voters, those between ages 18 and 34, Obama held a 59–37 lead over Romney, with 4 percent undecided.

Voters between ages 50 and 64 favored Romney 48–46 percent over Obama, but the undecided vote in that age bracket rose to 6 percent.

More than half of those polled who were 65 or older favored Romney, who was up 51 percent to Obama's 45 percent in that group. Three percent were undecided, and 1 percent picked Johnson.

Finally, among the crucial independent voters -- those who said they don't identify with either major party -- Obama held a strong lead, 51 percent to just 40 percent of independents favoring Romney. Two percent chose the Libertarian ticket, with 7 percent remaining undecided, the largest percentage of undecided voters in any group regarding the race for the White House.

Not surprisingly, Romney held the favor of 92 percent of Republicans, with 4 percent crossing the aisle and siding with Obama instead, and another 4 percent undecided.

But the poll more Democrats crossing the aisle and voting for Romney, 11 percent, leaving Obama with 87 percent support from his party, and the remaining 2 percent undecided.

• Poll numbers in detail ▼

———————————————

Obama's approval rating up, but not by much

It's a marginal improvement, but more Florida voters approve of Barack Obama's performance as president.

Obama's 47 percent approval rating was up from July's poll, when 46 percent approved.

The number of Floridians who disapproved of the president's job performance was also noticeably lower, down from 50 percent in July to 45 percent in September.

More people, however, said they weren't sure in the latest poll -- 8 percent as opposed to just 4 percent two months ago.

Similarly, more Floridians said they believed things were on the right track in the country, 43 percent compared to 38 percent who said the same in July.

More than half of Florida voters, 52 percent, said America is on the wrong track. But that was still lower than the 54 percent who thought so two months earlier.

• Poll numbers in detail ▼

———————————————

Who holds the most favor among Floridians?

When it comes to Floridians' opinion of each candidate, President Obama saw the biggest split.

He not only had the highest percentage, 46 percent, of voters who had a favorable opinion of him, but also the highest number of voters who held an unfavorable opinion of the president, 43 percent. The remaining 11 percent said their opinion of Obama was neutral.

Regarding Romney, 43 percent held a favorable opinion, 39 percent had an unfavorable opinion, and 18 percent remained neutral.

Like Obama, Vice President Joe Biden saw both a higher favorable and unfavorable rating than the Republican vice presidential nominee, Paul Ryan.

The breakdown for Biden was 39 percent favorable, 37 percent unfavorable, and 21 percent neutral. Three percent did not recognize the vice president by name.

Opinions regarding Ryan were 38 percent favorable, 33 percent unfavorable, 21 percent neutral, and eight percent said they did not recognize the name "Paul Ryan."

• Poll numbers in detail ▼

———————————————

Are you better off now than you were 4 years ago?

That's the big question Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan have been asking as they stump around Florida and the rest of the country.

According to the latest poll, most Floridians agree: They're not better off today than they were four years ago.

More than half of those polled, 51 percent, said they were not better off than they were before President Obama took office, while 41 percent said they were. Eight percent said they were not sure.

Regionally, only Southeast Florida had a higher percentage of voters who said they were better off now. Both men and women agreed they were not, though a larger number of women, 11 percent, said they were not sure. Only four percent of men weren't sure.

More than half of white and Hispanic voters also said they were not better off now, but three out of four black voters said they were, with only 17 percent saying no and 8 percent saying they were not sure.

When asked if the economy in Florida was getting better, worse or staying the same, 45 percent of Floridians said it was about the same. Another 32 percent said it has gotten better, and 21 percent said it was getting worse. Two percent were unsure.

Fewer than one-third of Floridians said President Obama was not to blame for the current economic situation. Eleven percent put all of the blame on Obama, while 22 percent said he was mostly to blame, and 35 percent said he deserves some of the blame. The remaining one percent was not sure.

As for which candidate Florida voters trust more to improve the economy, Obama and Romney were dead even, at 48 percent each. Four percent said they were not sure which of the two they trusted more regarding the economy.

The scales were tipped slightly in Romney's favor in Central Florida, 49–48 percent over Obama. But in Tampa Bay, 49 percent said they trusted Obama over 46 percent for Romney.

Statewide, more voters said they trusted Obama to keep Medicare financially stable, 49 percent over 47 percent who said they trust Romney to do a better job.

Regarding foreign policy, more than half of Floridians trusted Obama more, 51 percent compared to 45 percent for Romney. That percentage was higher in both Central Florida and Tampa Bay, favoring the president 54 percent in both regions.

———————————————

Poll numbers in detail

Question: If the 2012 general election for president and vide president were held today, which one of the following tickets would get your vote?

• The Democratic ticket of Barack Obama & Joe Biden
• The Republican ticket of Mitt Romney & Paul Ryan
• The Libertarian ticket of Gary Johnson & James Gray

Question: Do you approve of disapprove of Barack Obama's job performance as president?

Question: Do you recognize the name ... ?

• Barack Obama
• Mitt Romney
• Joe Biden
• Paul Ryan
  

Question: Would you say that things in the country are on the right track or would you say they are on the wrong track?

Question: Are you better off today than you were four years ago?

Question: How much do you blame President Obama for the current economic situation?  Would you say he deserves all the blame, most of the blame, some of the blame or none of the blame?

Question: Who do you trust more to improve the economy - Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

Question: Who do you trust to keep Medicare financial stable - Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

Question: Who do you trust more on foreign policy - Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

———————————————

The telephone survey of 800 registered Florida voters -- all likely to vote in the November election -- was conducted Sept. 17–19 for the Tampa Bay Times, Miami Herald, El Nuevo Herald, Bay News 9 and News 13.

The poll, which included respondents using land lines and cell phones, was conducted by Mason-Dixon, a nonpartisan, Jacksonville-based company. The margin of error is 3.5 percentage points.