There has been a lot of talk over the last few days about the possibility of snow in the Tampa Bay Area this weekend.
The big question...will it really happen? Well, let me preface this blog with a few points...first, it has never snowed in Tampa during the month of March, not even an observation of a snowflake. Second, any thought of accumulating snow needs to leave your mind right away.
Ok, now that that is out of the way, let's proceed...
In order for snow to form, the temperature of the air in which the precipitation is beginning MUST be below 32. This weekend a cold airmass will be settling in and ALL computer models are indicating that the atmosphere will have a relatively thick column of sub freezing air from about 2000 feet and higher.
So, that means that IF there will be precipitation on Sunday it WILL be in the form of snow somewhere higher up in the sky. Of course, that doesn't mean a whole lot to us here on the ground.
Cold northwest winds over the warmer waters of the Gulf of Mexico will generate lots of cold air clouds and likely some light precipitation.
This is a setup similar to what occurs around the Great Lakes. Call it "Gulf Effect Cold Rain Showers". Now, let's get back to the temperature in the sky. Above around 1500-2000 feet it will be below freezing.
So, in order for there to be snow observed, two things need to happen. First, it can not be too warm over the lowest 1000 feet of the atmosphere or the precipitation will fully melt before getting spotted.
Second, if snowflakes are to make it down to the ground the precipitation would need to be falling heavy or fast enough for the snow to make it through the warmer part of the atmosphere.
Those last two things remain the big questions.
Do I think it will snow as we think of snow? NO. Could there be a few bold snowflakes that sneak into visible range before melting? Perhaps.
Will it be a very cold, windy, wintry day Sunday? YES!!!!
So bundle up, have some hot cocoa, and watch Bay News 9 for the latest on the early March cold snap.