Support for Amendment 2, which would legalize medical marijuana, is falling among Floridians, according to a new exclusive Bay News 9/Tampa Bay Times/UF Graham Center poll.
The poll surveyed 781 Floridians who said they were likely to vote in the November general election and results showed that less than half - 48 percent - of the respondents said they planned to vote yes on Amendment 2, which, if passed, would legalize medical marijuana.
That's considerably down from last month, when a similar poll conducted by Bay News 9/Tampa Bay Times/UF Graham Center found that 57 percent of Floridians said they expect to vote on Amendment 2.
Sixty percent of voters will need to vote “yes” on the amendment before it becomes law.
The number of people who said they planned to vote no on Amendment 2 has also changed dramatically. The October poll found that 44 percent of respondents expected to vote no on the amendment, a big increase from the September poll, which found 23 percent of Floridians planning to vote no.
Fewer people say they are undecided on the issue as well. In September, 17 percent of those polled said they hadn't given the issue of Amendment 2 much thought, but the most recent poll has seen the number of undecideds dwindle to 7 percent.
What's responsible for the erosion of support for Amendment 2? According to Bay News 9 Republican political analyst Chris Ingram, the answer is simple: money.
"You've had an infusion of a lot of money from medical groups, from Sheldon Adelson, the casino magnate out of Las Vegas, who has dumped millions of dollars in Florida fighting Amendment 2," he said.
Ingram said the influx of cash means voters are now hearing from proponents on both sides of the issue.
"For a long time we only heard one side and it was [attorney and Amendment 2 backer] John Morgan talk about, very effectively and emotionally, how important passing this amendment is," he said. "Now people are starting to think about the legal and societal ramifications if we are to pass it."
Ingram also said he believes that the very nature of the referendum, which would have amended the Florida Constitution, may have also played a role in declining support for Amendment 2.
"Even folks who want to see medical marijuana in our state are questioning whether a constitutional amendment that is very difficult to undo - to fix whatever problems that occur after the fact, you've effectively got to pass another constitutional amendment," he said. "So people are starting to understand that, and I think that's why we're starting to see that erosion of support."
Bay News 9 Democratic political analyst Ana Cruz said that, despite the most recent poll, the outcome of the campaign will likely be very close.
The Amendment 2 campaign on the ballot is going to be very, very close and again its going to come to turnout," she said. "We know that it takes us double the effort to get young voters to the polls in record numbers, and it's going to take double the effort to do that on Nov. 4."
While much of the discussion about support for Amendment 2 has focused on young voters, the recent poll also found that Democrats and independents tend to support Amendment 2 as well. Sixty percent of the Democrats polled said they planned to vote yes on the amendment. Self-described independent voters also support the amendment, with 55 percent of them saying they expect to vote yes.
Most Republicans, on the other hand, said they do not support Amendment 2. The poll found that 61 percent of Republicans planned to vote no.
One possible factor that has not received much attention is that of religion. The poll found that support for Amendment 2 was high among people who said they are not religious (71 perecent) and among Jewish people (66 percent).
More than half of Catholics and Protestants said they planned to vote no on the Amendment. Mormons in particular overwhelmingly opposed Amendment 2, with 62 percent of those polled saying they were going to vote against it.
Poll Results Index
- How do you think you will vote on Amendment 2? ▼
- Amendment 2 breakdown by Born Again Christians ▼
- Amendment 2 breakdown by religious service attendance ▼
Poll Results
This fall's ballot includes Amendment 2, which 'Allows the medical use of marijuana… as determined by a licensed Florida physician.' How do you think you will vote on Amendment 2?
| YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALL | 48% | 44% | 7% | 1% |
| PARTY | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
| Democrats | 60% | 30% | 8% | 1% |
| Republicans | 33% | 61% | 5% | 1% |
| Other | 49% | 51% | . | . |
| Independents | 55% | 37% | 7% | 2% |
| MEDIA MARKET | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
| Fort Myers | 42% | 56% | 3% | . |
| Jacksonville | 38% | 54% | 4% | 4% |
| Miami | 55% | 37% | 6% | 3% |
| Orlando | 44% | 49% | 7% | . |
| Other | 49% | 39% | 12% | . |
| Pensacola | 58% | 29% | 13% | . |
| Tampa Bay | 51% | 43% | 5% | 1% |
| West Palm Beach | 45% | 43% | 12% | . |
| RACE | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
| Other | 47% | 35% | 14% | 4% |
| Black | 53% | 35% | 9% | 4% |
| White | 47% | 46% | 6% | 0% |
| HISPANIC | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
| No | 49% | 43% | 7% | 1% |
| Yes | 35% | 54% | 8% | 4% |
| Don't Know | 84% | 16% | . | . |
| Refused Answer | 59% | 32% | 9% | . |
| GEOGRAPHIC AREA | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
| South | 50% | 43% | 6% | 1% |
| North | 45% | 46% | 8% | 1% |
| Don't Know/Refused | 46% | 54% | . | . |
| AGE GROUP | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
| 18–24 | 63% | 32% | 2% | 4% |
| 25–34 | 74% | 20% | 6% | . |
| 35–44 | 55% | 35% | 8% | 2% |
| 45–59 | 50% | 42% | 6% | 1% |
| 60+ | 37% | 56% | 7% | 1% |
| AGE GROUP II | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
| 18–60 | 57% | 35% | 6% | 1% |
| 61+ | 36% | 56% | 7% | 1% |
| SEX | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
| Female | 49% | 40% | 10% | 2% |
| Male | 47% | 49% | 4% | 0% |
| HOUSEHOLD INCOME | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
| > $150,000 | 65% | 34% | 1% | . |
| $100,000 – $150,000 | 58% | 36% | 5% | 1% |
| $60,000 – $100,000 | 54% | 40% | 6% | . |
| $40,000 – $60,000 | 47% | 43% | 8% | 2% |
| $20,000 – $40,000 | 43% | 50% | 7% | . |
| < $20,000 | 56% | 40% | . | 4% |
| Don't Know | 22% | 53% | 25% | . |
| Refused Answer | 33% | 54% | 11% | 2% |
| RELIGION | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
| Other | 49% | 43% | 9% | . |
| No Affiliation | 71% | 23% | 5% | 1% |
| Muslim | . | 100% | . | . |
| Jewish | 66% | 26% | 9% | . |
| Mormon | 38% | 62% | . | . |
| Catholic | 37% | 54% | 9% | 1% |
| Protestant | 42% | 51% | 6% | 0% |
| Don't Know | 100% | . | . | . |
| Refused Answer | 41% | 33% | 6% | 19% |
| VOTING METHOD | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
| Haven't Decided Yet | 54% | 36% | 9% | . |
| Absentee Ballot | 50% | 42% | 6% | 2% |
| Early Voting | 50% | 41% | 6% | 3% |
| On Election Day | 45% | 48% | 7% | 0% |
| Not Planning to Vote | . | 100% | . | . |
| Don't Know | 52% | 48% | . | . |
| Refused Answer | . | 100% | . | . |
Amendment 2 breakdown by Born Again Christians
Asked only of protestants: Do you identify yourself as a Born Again or Evangelical Christian?
| YES on 2 | NO on 2 | Don't Know | Refused Answer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALL PROTESTANTS | 42% | 51% | 6% | 0% |
| Born Again Christian? | YES on 2 | NO on 2 | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
| Yes | 48% | 46% | 6% | . |
| No | 40% | 54% | 6% | 1% |
| Don't Know | 14% | 76% | 10% | . |
| Refused Answer | 67% | . | 33% | . |
Amendment 2 breakdown by religious service attendance
Asked of all voters polled: Apart from occasional weddings, baptisms, or funerals, how often do you attend religious services?
| YES on 2 | NO on 2 | Don't Know | Refused Answer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALL | 48% | 44% | 7% | 1% |
| Religious Attendance | YES on 2 | NO on 2 | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
| Never | 72% | 24% | 4% | 0% |
| A few times a year | 54% | 37% | 8% | 1% |
| Once or twice a month | 44% | 49% | 6% | 1% |
| Almost every week | 35% | 59% | 6% | . |
| Every week | 27% | 63% | 10% | 1% |
| Don't know | 34% | 66% | . | . |
| Refused Answer | 35% | 48% | 4% | 13% |
About the Poll
The telephone survey of 781 registered Florida voters — all likely to vote in the November election — was conducted Oct. 7–12 for the Tampa Bay Times, Bay News 9 and News 13 by the University of Florida's Bob Graham Center for Public Service and Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
The poll, which included respondents using land lines and cell phones, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. Results were weighted by age, party registration and media market, thus allowing the results to mirror the distribution in the Florida Voter File.
NOTE: Figures may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.