Obamacare, same-sex marriage and the legalization of medical marijuana.
Three separate issues but undeniably intertwined with the future of Florida's first female attorney general.
If incumbent Pam Bondi is elected to another four years in office, it likely will be determined by how Floridians feel about her viewpoints on those three key issues.
It appears most voters prefer Bondi as the Nov. 4 election nears.
According to a new Bay News 9/Tampa Bay Times/UF Graham Center poll, Pam Bondi holds a solid edge over Democratic challenger George Sheldon.
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When asked who they would vote for if they were voting today, 41 percent of statewide voters said they would vote for Bondi while 31 percent said they would vote for Sheldon. Another six percent said they would vote for Libertarian candidate Bill Wohlsifer
"I think Pam Bondi is virtually a shoe-in for re-election," said Bay News 9 Republican Political Analyst Chris Ingram. "I think most voters would look at her and say she's done a decent job."
However, 16 percent of those polled said they did not know who they would vote for if today were Election Day. A group of undecideds that large, if the majority of them voted Sheldon, could potentially harm Bondi's re-election bid.
"I’ve been a prosecutor for nearly two decades, prosecuting every kind of crime imaginable," Bondi said at a recent Bay News 9 Attorney General debate. "As Attorney General, I’ve taken that further. What motivates me every day is helping people. And that’s why I ran for attorney general and what I’ve continued to do as attorney general."
Bondi said helping people during her initial term has meant fighting Florida's prescription drug problem and attacking human trafficking. But there has been ample scrutiny over her battle with the Affordable Care Act, medical marijuana and the ongoing same-sex marriage issue.
Bondi has said repeatedly her office is part of the executive branch and that the ultimate decision on same-sex marriage should be a judicial one. She added the U.S. Supreme Court's decision not to take up the same-sex marriage debate has allowed the individual state cases and confusion to continue.
Sheldon said the issue should be less complicated.
"Government ought to get out of the business of telling people who they can love," Sheldon said. "We have moved full circle as a society. We need to move forward and respect that."
Bay News 9 Democratic Political Analyst Ana Cruz said Sheldon's campaign has come up a little bit but "just doesn't have enough money in the last few weeks of the campaign to do him justice."
Democratic voters polled preferred Sheldon over Bondi almost a 4-to-1 margin (58 percent to 15 percent). Pollsters who identified themselves as Republican chose Bondi by an even greater margin - 70 percent to 5 percent.
Sheldon, the deputy attorney general to Bob Butterworth from 1999 to 2003, has been adamant on the campaign trail that the Attorney General's office should be the people’s lawyer and "not the governor’s lawyer."
That comment was aimed at Bondi's close relationship with Gov. Rick Scott and his office.
Statewide voters polled, however, don't seem to mind the Scott-Bondi relationship. Of voters polled in eight Florida cities, only those in Miami chose
Sheldon over Bondi (46 percent to 23 percent). Tampa (48-31) and Orlando (46-30) were strongly pro-Bondi.
The Attorney General also appears to be the clear favorite with voters ages 45 and older, even garnering 50 percent of the nod from polled voters aged 60 and older. Wohlsifer's strong appeal (32 percent) came from polled voters who describe themselves as neither Republican or Democrat.
Sheldon, meanwhile, was most popular with polled voters ages 25-34 (36 percent to Bondi’s 27 percent) and black voters (68 percent to Bondi’s 5 percent).
Still, those favorable demographics may not be enough to close the gap on Bondi before final ballots are cast on Nov. 4.
“I’ve never ran for office, only (this office) Attorney General,” Bondi said. “And my job is to make Florida the safest place to live work and raise a family.”
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Poll Results
| BONDI (REP) |
SHELDON (DEM) |
WOHLSIFER (LIB) |
Other/Would Not Vote | Don't Know | Refused Answer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALL | 41% | 31% | 6% | 2% | 16% | 4% |
| PARTY | BONDI (REP) |
SHELDON (DEM) |
WOHLSIFER (LIB) |
Other/Would Not Vote | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
| Democrats | 15% | 58% | 6% | 2% | 14% | 5% |
| Republicans | 70% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 16% | 2% |
| Other | 25% | 16% | 32% | . | . | 26% |
| Independents | 35% | 29% | 8% | 3% | 19% | 7% |
| MEDIA MARKET | BONDI (REP) |
SHELDON (DEM) |
WOHLSIFER (LIB) |
Other/Would Not Vote | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
| Fort Myers | 44% | 22% | 8% | . | 22% | 3% |
| Jacksonville | 52% | 22% | 5% | . | 19% | 3% |
| Miami | 23% | 46% | 6% | 5% | 15% | 6% |
| Orlando | 46% | 30% | 3% | 2% | 16% | 3% |
| Other | 45% | 21% | 10% | 1% | 14% | 8% |
| Pensacola | 32% | 32% | 6% | . | 26% | 3% |
| Tampa Bay | 48% | 31% | 7% | 2% | 7% | 5% |
| West Palm Beach | 37% | 30% | 2% | 2% | 27% | 3% |
| RACE | BONDI (REP) |
SHELDON (DEM) |
WOHLSIFER (LIB) |
Other/Would Not Vote | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
| Other | 27% | 32% | 9% | 1% | 17% | 13% |
| Black | 5% | 68% | 9% | 2% | 12% | 4% |
| White | 47% | 27% | 5% | 2% | 16% | 3% |
| HISPANIC | BONDI (REP) |
SHELDON (DEM) |
WOHLSIFER (LIB) |
Other/Would Not Vote | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
| No | 43% | 31% | 5% | 1% | 16% | 4% |
| Yes | 32% | 33% | 8% | 8% | 16% | 3% |
| Don't Know | 28% | 18% | 16% | . | 22% | 16% |
| Refused Answer | 20% | 28% | 8% | . | 24% | 20% |
| GEOGRAPHIC AREA | BONDI (REP) |
SHELDON (DEM) |
WOHLSIFER (LIB) |
Other/Would Not Vote | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
| South | 38% | 35% | 6% | 3% | 14% | 4% |
| North | 46% | 26% | 5% | 1% | 18% | 4% |
| Don't Know/Refused | 54% | . | . | . | 23% | 23% |
| AGE GROUP | BONDI (REP) |
SHELDON (DEM) |
WOHLSIFER (LIB) |
Other/Would Not Vote | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
| 18–24 | 31% | 30% | 9% | 2% | 25% | 2% |
| 25–34 | 27% | 36% | 11% | 2% | 16% | 8% |
| 35–44 | 34% | 35% | 8% | 5% | 14% | 5% |
| 45–59 | 38% | 31% | 6% | 4% | 16% | 5% |
| 60+ | 49% | 30% | 3% | . | 15% | 2% |
| AGE GROUP II | BONDI (REP) |
SHELDON (DEM) |
WOHLSIFER (LIB) |
Other/Would Not Vote | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
| 18–60 | 34% | 32% | 8% | 3% | 17% | 5% |
| 61+ | 50% | 30% | 3% | . | 14% | 3% |
| SEX | BONDI (REP) |
SHELDON (DEM) |
WOHLSIFER (LIB) |
Other/Would Not Vote | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
| Female | 37% | 34% | 3% | 2% | 19% | 5% |
| Male | 46% | 28% | 8% | 2% | 12% | 3% |
| HOUSEHOLD INCOME | BONDI (REP) |
SHELDON (DEM) |
WOHLSIFER (LIB) |
Other/Would Not Vote | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
| > $150,000 | 42% | 29% | 7% | 2% | 17% | 3% |
| $100,000 – $150,000 | 34% | 36% | 7% | 5% | 13% | 5% |
| $60,000 – $100,000 | 46% | 33% | 5% | 1% | 13% | 3% |
| $40,000 – $60,000 | 37% | 41% | 7% | 1% | 12% | 2% |
| $20,000 – $40,000 | 46% | 32% | 4% | 2% | 13% | 3% |
| < $20,000 | 29% | 40% | 6% | 4% | 14% | 7% |
| Don't Know | 44% | 12% | . | . | 45% | . |
| Refused Answer | 44% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 25% | 8% |
| RELIGION | BONDI (REP) |
SHELDON (DEM) |
WOHLSIFER (LIB) |
Other/Would Not Vote | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
| Other | 37% | 35% | 3% | 4% | 12% | 8% |
| No Affiliation | 27% | 42% | 8% | 4% | 17% | 2% |
| Muslim | . | 100% | . | . | . | . |
| Jewish | 21% | 56% | 4% | 3% | 17% | . |
| Mormon | 100% | . | . | . | . | . |
| Catholic | 42% | 28% | 5% | 1% | 19% | 5% |
| Protestant | 53% | 25% | 5% | 1% | 13% | 3% |
| Don't Know | . | 100% | . | . | . | . |
| Refused Answer | 9% | 28% | 4% | . | 33% | 26% |
| VOTING METHOD | BONDI (REP) |
SHELDON (DEM) |
WOHLSIFER (LIB) |
Other/Would Not Vote | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
| Haven't Decided Yet | 25% | 36% | 10% | 3% | 21% | 4% |
| Absentee Ballot | 43% | 32% | 7% | 1% | 12% | 4% |
| Early Voting | 35% | 36% | 5% | 2% | 18% | 5% |
| On Election Day | 47% | 28% | 4% | 2% | 16% | 4% |
| Not Planning to Vote | 100% | . | . | . | . | . |
| Don't Know | 18% | 68% | . | . | 14% | . |
| Refused Answer | 62% | 38% | . | . | . | . |
About the Poll
The telephone survey of 781 registered Florida voters — all likely to vote in the November election — was conducted Oct. 7–12 for the Tampa Bay Times, Bay News 9 and News 13 by the University of Florida's Bob Graham Center for Public Service and Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
The poll, which included respondents using land lines and cell phones, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. Results were weighted by age, party registration and media market, thus allowing the results to mirror the distribution in the Florida Voter File.
NOTE: Figures may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.