Support for Amendment 2, which would legalize medical marijuana, continues to decline, according to a new exclusive Bay News 9/Tampa Bay Times/UF Graham Center poll.

The poll surveyed 850 Floridians who are likely to vote, and found that 46 percent of those polled said they planned to vote yes on Amendment 2.  Forty-three percent of the respondents said they planned to vote no. 

Seven percent of those polled said they didn't know how they were going to vote, and 4 percent refused to answer the question.

The latest poll numbers reflect a downward trend in support for Amendment 2.  Earlier this month, another exclusive poll found that 48 percent of respondents said they planned to vote for Amendment 2.  That was down from a September poll that found 57 percent of those polled supported Amendment 2.

But even that highest level of support may not have been enough to pass Amendment 2, as a constitutional amendment needs to receive 60 percent of the vote before becoming law.

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Poll Index

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Poll Results: How did you vote/do you think you will vote on Amendment 2?

 

1. All Voters
  YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
ALL 46% 43% 7% 4%
PARTY YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
Democrats 56% 32% 7% 4%
Republicans 32% 58% 6% 4%
Other 67% . 33% .
Independents 50% 38% 7% 5%
MEDIA MARKET YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
Fort Myers 39% 47% 5% 10%
Jacksonville 46% 42% 7% 6%
Miami 50% 39% 5% 6%
Orlando 45% 47% 6% 2%
Other 45% 50% 5% .
Pensacola 42% 44% 9% 5%
Tampa Bay 48% 43% 5% 4%
West Palm Beach 44% 34% 16% 7%
RACE YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
Other 49% 35% 6% 10%
Black 49% 36% 9% 6%
White 45% 45% 7% 3%
HISPANIC YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
No 47% 43% 7% 4%
Yes 36% 50% 9% 5%
Don't Know . 43% 28% 28%
Refused Answer 48% 29% . 22%
GEOGRAPHIC AREA YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
South 47% 41% 7% 6%
North 45% 46% 6% 3%
Don't Know/Refused 33% 43% 25% .
AGE GROUP YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
18–24 60% 40% . .
25–34 68% 26% 6% 6%
35–44 51% 33% 9% 9%
45–59 50% 38% 6% 6%
60+ 34% 54% 8% 8%
AGE GROUP II YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
18–60 55% 34% 6% 6%
61+ 34% 55% 8% 8%
SEX YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
Female 42% 45% 9% 9%
Male 50% 42% 4% 4%
VOTING METHOD YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
Plan to Vote 47% 41% 9% 9%
Absentee Ballot 41% 50% 2% 2%
Early Voting 47% 43% 1% 1%
Don't Know 45% 42% 13% 13%
Refused Answer 68% . 32% 32%

 

2. Asked only of those who already voted
  YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
ALL 43% 47% 2% 8%
PARTY YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
Democrats 57% 32% 4% 8%
Republicans 25% 66% 2% 7%
Other 100% . . .
Independents 47% 41% . 12%
MEDIA MARKET YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
Fort Myers 45% 43% . 12%
Jacksonville 35% 57% . 8%
Miami 46% 35% 6% 13%
Orlando 33% 62% 3% 3%
Other 45% 52% 3% .
Pensacola 42% 58% . .
Tampa Bay 50% 41% 1% 8%
West Palm Beach 39% 37% 4% 20%
RACE YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
Other 51% 29% . 19%
Black 45% 43% 4% 9%
White 41% 50% 2% 6%
HISPANIC YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
No 42% 49% 2% 7%
Yes 49% 39% 4% 7%
Don't Know . . . 100%
Refused Answer 43% . . 57%
GEOGRAPHIC AREA YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
South 47% 40% 2% 12%
North 36% 59% 2% 3%
Don't Know/Refused 48% 28% 24% .
AGE GROUP YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
18–24 62% 38% . .
25–34 82% 14% 4% .
35–44 45% 51% . 4%
45–59 38% 42% 3% 17%
60+ 38% 54% 2% 7%
AGE GROUP II YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
18–60 50% 38% 2% 11%
61+ 37% 55% 2% 6%
SEX YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
Female 39% 50% 2% 9%
Male 47% 44% 3% 6%
VOTING METHOD YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
Absentee Ballot 41% 49% 2% 8%
Early Voting 47% 43% 1% 9%
Refused Answer . . 100% .

 

3. Asked of those who haven't voted, but plan to vot
  YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
ALL 47% 41% 9% 3%
PARTY YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
Democrats 56% 32% 10% 2%
Republicans 36% 53% 8% 3%
Other 50% . 50% .
Independents 52% 37% 9% 2%
MEDIA MARKET YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
Fort Myers 31% 51% 11% 7%
Jacksonville 49% 37% 9% 5%
Miami 51% 41% 5% 3%
Orlando 52% 38% 8% 2%
Other 45% 49% 6% .
Pensacola 42% 41% 11% 6%
Tampa Bay 47% 44% 8% 1%
West Palm Beach 45% 33% 20% 2%
RACE YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
Other 48% 38% 9% 5%
Black 50% 33% 11% 5%
White 47% 42% 9% 2%
HISPANIC YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
No 49% 39% 9% 2%
Yes 31% 54% 11% 4%
Don't Know . 60% 40% .
Refused Answer 52% 48% . .
GEOGRAPHIC AREA YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
South 46% 42% 10% 2%
North 49% 40% 8% 3%
Don't Know/Refused 25% 50% 25% .
AGE GROUP YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
AGE GROUP II YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
SEX YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
VOTING METHOD YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
18–24 59% 41% . .
25–34 65% 29% 6% .
35–44 52% 28% 11% 9%
45–59 55% 37% 7% 2%
60+ 31% 54% 13% 2%
18–60 56% 33% 7% 3%
61+ 31% 54% 13% 2%
Female 44% 41% 13% 2%
Male 51% 40% 5% 3%
Plan to Vote 47% 41% 9% 3%
Absentee Ballot . 100% . .
Don't Know 45% 42% 13% .
Refused Answer 100% . . .

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About the Poll

The telephone survey of 850 likely Florida voters was conducted Oct. 24–28 for News 13, Bay News 9 and the Tampa Bay Times by the University of Florida's Bob Graham Center for Public Service and Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

The poll, which included respondents using land lines and cell phones, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Results were weighted by age, party registration and media market, thus allowing the results to mirror the distribution in the Florida Voter File.

NOTE: Figures may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.