As a whole, tonight will be the coldest night our region has seen since early January.
It’s not abnormal to get some occasional cold spells here locally, but this one has come a bit early… bringing back memories of the cold start to winter in November 2009, when many locations had frost by Thanksgiving that year.
As is always the case here in Florida, forecasting the exact lows will be tricky. Contrary to popular belief, we have our coldest nights when the winds go calm … not when they are windy.
So although it will feel cold all day due to strong winds, the coldest locations tonight will be where the winds die down. Those tend to be spots away from the coast and Bay, and especially north of Hillsborough County.
For the purposes of this blog, we’ll assume the winds die down enough for the coldest air to settle to the ground in inland areas. In reality, temperatures will likely vary widely. But to keep it simple here are the predictions:
In Citrus County: 25-28 degrees East of U.S. 19. West of U.S. 19 will not be as cold, stopping at about 31 to 35.
In Hernando County: 26-30 degrees East of U.S. 19 with the coldest spots in the low lying areas around Brooksville to Ridge Manor. Closer to U.S> 19 and the coast, it will drop to 31-35.
In Pasco County: East of the Suncoast Parkway will be coldest with 29-34 degrees. West of that will not be quite as cold dropping to 32-37.
In Hillsborough County: 32-38, with the coldest spots east and northeast of Tampa. It will not be as cold close to the Bay (idowntown Tampa, South Tampa, Apollo Beach will be closer to 40 degrees).
In Polk County: 32-37, with the coldest spots in the western section of the county, from Kathleen to Lakeland and Mulberry.
In Manatee County: Coldest east of I-75, where it will drop to 36-39, but west of I-75 will mainly stay above 40 due to the influence of the warmer waters.
In Pinellas County: As is normally the case. most of the county will stay warmer due to the influence of the warmer waters. So expect mainly 38 to 44 from Clearwater to St. Petersburg, with warmer temps near the beach and bay. But there will be some colder spots near Palm Harbor and East Lake that drop to 34-38.
Some interesting facts: The average high this time of year is 78, so we’re about twenty degrees below average today. The average low is 60 in Tampa. The record low for Nov. 19 in Tampa is 38 degrees, set in 1951. (We will be very close to this record tomorrow morning.) The average rainfall for the month of November is only 1.55 inches. Many locations received more than an inch with yesterdays rain.