A tropical weather system churning in the eastern Caribbean has been upgraded to Tropical Depression 4.
The depression will likely impact local weather one way or another early next week, according to the Bay News 9 weather team.
Satellite imagery indicates that Tropical Depression Four has changed little in organization during the past several hours.
While the convection remains somewhat ragged, a persistent area of stronger convection has formed near the center. Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph.
The cyclone should continue moving northwestward and north-northwestward into a developing break in the subtropical ridge cause by a mid-to-upper level trough off of the U.S. east coast. As the trough begins to lift out and steering currents weaken, a slow motion is expected in 36 to 48 hours. The track guidance becomes very divergent at that time. The motion at that time will depend on the strength of the system.
A couple of the computer models bring the system westward close to South Florida. The only way the storm would move that way is if it stays very weak and undeveloped. A stronger storm would tend to be steered by upper-level winds to the north then northeast.
After a couple more model-runs, it should be more clear.
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