It's the centerpiece of Governor Rick Scott’s re-election campaign: a pledge to cut taxes by one billion dollars.

Scott says he'll make it happen if he gets four more years in Tallahassee. But, critics say the tax cut promise is nothing more than a campaign trail gimmick.

That's a big number, and one even many of Scott’s fellow Republicans are whispering may be too good to be true.

That's because state economists are predicting Florida’s on track to have only a $300 million surplus, not nearly enough to afford all those tax cuts.

Sam Varn runs an award shop that's only now recovering from the pinch of the great recession.

“People have gone a long time without buying new computers, without buying new equipment, without hiring people, so now, as business starts to increase, having a little extra boost would just certainly go to pushing that forward and increasing that opportunity to grow,” said Varn.

A billion dollars worth of cuts could help people pay for a lot of things, but the question is how to pay for the cuts.

Critics argue coming up with that kind of cash could amount to hitting a hole in one.

Still, Dominic Calabro with Florida Taxwatch calls Scott’s plan doable.

He says all it'll take are people like Sam using their tax cut savings to hire more workers, who'll then have more money to buy more things and pay more taxes, giving Florida more revenue.

At least that's how the theory goes.

“When you eliminate a tax that people hate and that is a clear impediment to capital formation, or taxes that we have in our state that others don't have, you get a quicker return and a better return,” said Calabro.

Meaning the billion dollar tax cut the governor's critics call a 'gimmick' may not be so gimmicky after all.

Of course, it depends on what business owners do and above all else, what happens come Election Day.

Most of the tax cuts Governor Scott is proposing would benefit corporations, but some Republican lawmakers are already putting the governor on notice:

If he does win re-election, it'll ultimately be up to them to decide which taxes to cut, and by how much.