When will the first cold front of the season arrive?

We get this question every year at this time.  The summer season lasts a long time here in Florida and while other states around the country consider September an “autumn” month, it’s basically just an extension of summer here. 

The simple answer to the question is: October.  In reality, however, we actually have seen some years when a cold front will arrive in mid to late September to cool us down just a bit and lower the humidity.

However, even in the years that happens, the cool-down is brief and only drops our temperatures a few degrees for a few days.  Usually in those years the heat comes right back and then a stronger cold front arrives in October.  That’s why the simple answer to the question is just to say “October."

In most years, the first big cold front of the season arrives around mid-October.  To be even more exact, about eight of the last 15 years have seen our first big cold front of the season arrive within a day of Oct. 15.  

This usually marks the end of our “rainy season” also because our atmospheric moisture drops too low to support the daily thunderstorms.  That doesn’t mean it stops raining after that point; it just means that the rain chances are few and far between from that point on into winter.  

Between September and October is also the time of year when we can get tropical storms to pass close by as they move up from the Gulf or Caribbean.  Sometimes we get heavy bouts of rain followed by a drier air mass on the backside. 

These numbers put it into perspective:

  • Average High/Low on Sept. 1st:   90º / 76º
  • Average High/Low on Sept. 30th: 87º / 72º
  • Average High/Low on Oct. 1st:     87º / 72º
  • Average High/Low on Oct. 31st:   81º / 64º