Here's what you need to know about this weekend's weather:
- A few showers could form in the evening
- Temperatures will be mild overnight
- Saturday should start drive, with increasing rain chages later in the day
A weak stationary frontal boundary over south Florida will now edge northward as a warm front on Saturday. A strong area of high pressure nosing down the mid-Atlantic will help keep this boundary from moving very far north, but our overall weather pattern will remain rather moist with lots of clouds around.
In the upper levels, only weak pieces of energy propagate eastward across the Gulf and the Florida peninsula between now and Saturday. The main event will be just entering the western Gulf of Mexico around mid-day Saturdya, then into the central Gulf Saturday evening.
Through the morning, shallow moist easterly flow will result in another round of widespread low clouds as well as some patchy fog in favored locations. It will remain on the humid side for most of the region. The Nature Coast will not be as muggy.
On Saturday, as a stronger cold front begins moving across the Gulf, there is very little lift from the Tampa Bay area southward, but some upper level energy will generate lift north of Tampa Saturday afternoon.
The prospect for sunshine does not look good, but even a little heating will cause some showers and a few thunderstorms to develop, especially from Tampa Bay and south.
To the north, the mid-level clouds will lower and thicken and some steadier light rain is possible before Saturday ends.
Temperatures will depend on cloud cover, but upper 70s to lower 80s should be the rule unless we get more sun than expected.
It appears the best chance of thunderstorms will be late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Some models show the rain ending Sunday morning but others show the rain chances continue all day on Sunday.
Then another cold front moves through late Sunday and this ushers in some chilly and dry air for Monday morning. We are looking at the coolest temperatures in about eight months to start the day on Monday.
Highs Monday might hold in the 60s all day, which would be the coolest day since late March.
Depending on the wind direction, Tuesday morning might be very chilly as well with lows in the 40s to near 50 around Tampa Bay to start the day. But the airmass modifies quickly and we begin a warming trend Tuesday afternoon.
The warmup continues through Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday with temperatures returning to above normal later next week.
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