Preseason hurricane prediction can be very confusing to many. Just last week, the folks at Colorado State University came out with their prediction for the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

They are calling for a “below average” season. The forecast is for seven named storms, three of which will become hurricanes, and one major hurricane, which is Category 3 or higher. Those numbers compare to 30 year averages of 12, 6.5, and two.

This is how Philip Klotzbach and William Gray began their synopsis this year…

“We anticipate that the 2015 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be one of the least active seasons since the middle of the 20th century. It appears quite likely that an El Niño of at least moderate strength will develop this summer and fall. The tropical and subtropical Atlantic are also quite cool at present. We anticipate a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. Despite the forecast for below-average activity, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”

I want to focus on the last two sentences. And these are very important.

First, we have had many active hurricane seasons in the Atlantic Basin over the last decade. Yet, it has been about 10 years since a hurricane even hit Florida. That was Wilma back in October 2005. Coincidentally, that was the last time a major hurricane hit the United States.

So, why is this all important to mention? I make this point because even in busy, or active years, our coastline may not be affected. And that has been the case over the last nine seasons. But, in an inactive year, meteorologically, there could be one monster storm that causes lots of damage. This has happened before. In 1992, Hurricane Andrew, a Category 5 storm, hit South Florida during a very inactive hurricane season. But you would be hard pressed to find someone who lived there then to agree that it was an inactive season.

Now, I am not suggesting that a major hurricane, hurricanes, or even a tropical storm for that matter, will affect our area or anywhere specific during an inactive season. But the lesson here is, regardless of the preseason prediction, you should always prepare the same way living here in Florida. Have a hurricane disaster kit, necessary supplies, medications, food and clean water. Know if you are in an evacuation zone, and have a hurricane drill in your home with your family. You should know what you are going to do ahead of time.

For some great information please visit our Bay News 9 hurricane page.

Remember, it only takes one storm, but we hope that that won’t be anytime soon.