We mentioned yesterday that with Danny being a small hurricane it could make rapid fluctuations in intensity.  Today it did just that going up to a category 3 storm, but now already back down to a category 2.

Here's what you need to know about Danny at 11 p.m. Friday:

  • Location: 14.8 N, 49.8 W
  • Winds: 110 mph
  • Movement: WNW at 10 mph
  • Pressure: 977 mb / 28.85 inches

Danny is located about 810 miles east of the Leeward Islands. It continues to move west-northwest at 10 mph.

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Danny which was probably peaking in intensity at around 115 mph earlier today. Since then, the eye has disappeared in satellite imagery, and the cyclone is showing signs of being affected by southwesterly vertical wind shear. 

A high building to the north will likely cause Danny to turn more westward with some increase in forward speed.  The models are in good agreement.

Danny has likely peaked in intensity based on the signs of shear in the cloud pattern, stronger upper-level winds present west of the cyclone, and abundant nearby dry air.  Although it starts from a higher initial intensity than the previous forecast, the new intensity forecast still calls for Danny to weaken below hurricane strength at about 36-48 hours. 

After that, the system should continue to weaken as it moves near or over the Greater Antilles in close proximity to an upper-level trough.  The models all forecast Danny to degenerate to a tropical wave by 120 hours.

NOAA and Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft will investigate Danny again Saturday afternoon.

Hurricane Danny Advisory

11 p.m. — Danny weakens to a category 2 hurricane, continued weakening expected during the next few days.

Watches and Warnings

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Danny. Tropical storm watches may be required for portions of the Leeward Islands on Saturday.

Discussion and 48-Hour Outlook

At 11 p.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Danny was located near latitude 14.8 north, longitude 49.8 west. Danny is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph. An increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days, with a turn toward the west forecast Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph, with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Danny is expected to beomce a tropical storm on Sunday as it approaches the Leeward Islands.

Hurricane-forced winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).

Hazards affecting land

None.

Next Advisory

Next complete advisory is at 5 a.m.