Tropical Storm Danny continues to feel the effects of very strong southwest wind shear.

The maximum sustained winds are steady at 40 mph while it approaches the southern Leeward Islands, according to the 11 p.m. advisory.

Danny has become decidedly less organized since earlier today. The low-level circulation center became exposed to the southwest of the main area of deep convection, and that deep convection has become rather ragged-looking.

Danny should remain in an environment of moderately strong shear and dry mid-tropospheric air for the next few days. These unfavorable factors should cause weakening to a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours, and dissipation thereafter. If the global models are correct, however, Danny could dissipate sooner than shown here.

Danny will become a depression either tonight or early tomorrow before completely dissipating by Wednedsay around Hispanola or Cuba.

This will be no threat to Florida or the US. It will actually be some good news for some of the islands as they have been experiencing drought conditions as of late.

Here's what you need to know about Danny at 11 p.m. on Sunday:

  • Location: 15.6 N, 59.8 W
  • How far is it?
    • 160 miles E of Dominica
    • 190 miles ESE of Guadeloupe
  • Winds: 40 mph
  • Movement: W at 15 mph
  • Pressure: 1009 mb / 29.80 inches

1 p.m. - Danny approaches the southern Leeward Islands.

Watches and Warnings

Changes with this advisory:

The Tropical Storm Watch for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands has been discontinued.

Summary of Watches and Warnings:

The Tropical Storm Watch for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands has been discontinued.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for

  • Antigua
  • Barbuda
  • Montserrat
  • St. Kitts
  • Nevis

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for

  • Saba and St. Eustatius
  • St. Maarten

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the U. S. and British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of Danny. Additional watches or warnings could be required for portions of these areas later this morning.

Discussion and 48-Hour Outlook

At 11 p.m., the center of Tropical Storm Danny was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 59.8 West.

Danny is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a westward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next 48 hours.

On the forecast track, the center will move near or over the southern Leeward Islands late tonight or early Monday, and into the northeastern Caribbean Sea on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.

Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Danny is expected to become a tropical depression on Monday, and become a remnant low Monday night or Tuesday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) to the northeast of the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

Hazards affecting land

Wind: Tropical storm force winds are possible within the watch area by late Sunday night.

Rainfall: Danny is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain over the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Tuesday.

Next Advisory

Next complete advisory is at 5 a.m.