After becoming quite disorganized in appearance earlier today, Erika has made a bit of a comeback.  

Some of the watches in the Caribbean Islands will likely be changed to warnings overnight.

What we are seeing is a little different from the official forecast track as most of the Global models don’t really show this doing much but they do show it coming up toward Florida as a weak system or an open wave. This would be a very wet solution for us eventually. If it goes east of Florida, it could strengthen and become a hurricane.

Erika could have an impact on Florida in one form or another. 

This one is a difficult forecast. The patterns aren’t well established and in a few days many things can change as the computer models are “all over the place” in the long term. 

It is something we will just have to take three or four days at a time and watch carefully.

  • Location: 15.6 N, 52.8 W
  • How far is it?
    • 840 miles E of the Leeward Islands
    • 2,210 miles ESE of Cape Canaveral
    • 2,135 miles ESE of Miami
  • Winds: 40 mph
  • Movement: W at 20 mph
  • Pressure: 1004 mb / 29.65 inches
  • Jump to: Interactive Tracking Map ▼

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Tropical Storm Erika Advisory

5 p.m. — Erika expected to be near the northern Leeward Islands tomorrow night.

Watches and Warnings

Changes with this advisory: None

The government of France has issued a tropical storm watch for Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect:

A tropical storm watch is in effect for:

* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Anguilla
* Saba, St. Eustatius and St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook

At 5 p.m., the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 52.8 West.

Erika is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a west- northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours.

On the forecast track, the center of Erika will be near the Leeward Islands Wednesday night and early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.

Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

Hazards affecting land

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Wednesday night or early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over many of the Leeward Islands through Thursday.

Next Advisory

Next intermediate advisory at 8 p.m.
Next complete advisory at 11 p.m.