Here's what you need to know about Tropical Storm Erika:

  • Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over portions of the Leeward Islands early Thursday.
  • Any potential impact on Florida would happen early next week.
  • The state's Emergency Operations Center in Tallahassee has been partially activated.

Tropical Storm Erika was very disorganized today as the predicted wind shear started working against it. 

The low level circulation kept moving west but the mid and upper level part of the storm was blown off. 

It’s barely hanging on as a tropical storm right now.

Erika will continue moving through this wind shear so although it might survive it likely will not strengthen over the next few days. Most of the computer models are in agreement on that now.

Something different that was seen today: a cold front coming across the United States early next week looks stronger. So, if Erika survives and strengthens near the Bahamas early next week it could be “pulled” northward more abruptly. 

It’s too early to make that call but that is now a more plausible scenario. 

  • Location at 11 p.m. Wednesday: 16.7 N, 60.2 W
  • How far is it?
    • 110 mi. ESE of Antigua
    • 1,431 mi. ESE of Miami
    • 1,520 mi. ESE of Melbourne
    • 1,566 mi. ESE of Orlando
    • 1,577 mi. SE of Daytona Beach
  • Winds: 45 mph
  • Movement: W at 16 mph
  • Pressure: 1,006 mb / 29.71 inches
  • Jump to: Interactive Tracking Map ▼

The computer models range from Erika completely dissipating on Day 3 and sending a blob of moisture across south and central Florida to becoming a hurricane east of the Bahamas moving northward.

The track forecast shown is basically an average of the more reliable computer models. The cone is not a forecast, but simply a graphical representation of historical error. Over the last 10 years, the average error at five days is 240 miles. That means the cone will be a circle surrounding each point with a radius of 240 miles.

With all of that said, unfortunately, we won't really have a good idea of Erika's future until we get beyond Friday.

Hurricane hunters have found that tropical force winds extend outward up to 105 miles to the east of the storm's center.

Erika will move west to west-northwestward. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the Leeward Islands tonight, and then the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday.

Track the Tropics


Interactive Hurricane Tracker


Tropical Storm Erika Advisory

11 p.m. — Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over portions of the Leeward Islands early Thursday.

Watches and Warnings

Changes with this advisory:

  • None.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect:
A tropical storm warning is in effect for…

  • Anguilla
  • Saba, St. Eustatius
  • St. Maarten
  • St. Martin
  • St. Barthelemy
  • Montserrat
  • Antigua and Barbuda
  • St. Kitts and Nevis
  • Puerto Rico
  • Vieques
  • Culebra
  • U.S. Virgin Islands
  • British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for:

  • Guadeloupe
  • North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Cabo Frances Viejo
  • Southeastern Bahamas
  • Turks and Caicos Islands

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the progress of Erika. A tropical storm watch may be required for a portion of the Dominican Republic later today.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook

At 11 p.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.7 north, longitude 60.2 west.

Erika is moving toward the west near 16 mph and a west to west-northwestward motion with the same forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands early Thursday, then move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later on Thursday, and be near or just north of the north coast of the Dominican Republic on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph, with higher gusts. These winds are confined to heavy squalls to the north and east of the center. No significant change in strength or perhaps some slight weakening is anticipated during the next 48 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles, primarily to the east of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from data from a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft is 1,006 mb (29.71 inches).

Hazards affecting land

Wind: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and reach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Leeward Islands tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could reach portions of the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos Islands on Friday.

Rainfall: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic through Friday.

Next Advisory
Next complete advisory at 5 a.m.