Disorganized Tropical Storm Erika is moving rapidly to the west this evening near southern Puerto Rico.

Small tropical storms tend to wobble around a lot because they can be effected by regional wind flow. 

Today Erika took a jump to the southwest and then the center of circulation reformed back to the north closer to the thunderstorms.  Again, tonight the wind shear is ripping the tops off the storm leaving the low level circulation exposed and racing westward just south of Puerto Rico.

This is good for Puerto Rico as they will get beneficial rains (they’ve been in a drought for a year). However, they might also have to deal with some flooding.

Erika went farther south than the computer models predicted and this is what we’ve been saying for the past few days is that if it stayed weak it would tend to go farther south and west instead of taking a turn to the north.  We still think it will gradually slide to the north, but more slowly. 

The next 36 hours will tell us if Erika is going to survive and will also show us a better picture of where it ultimately goes.  The reason I say this is because it now has to go very close to or directly over Hispaniola.  If it clips the eastern part of the Dominican Republic it will barely survive, but if it goes over the center or western part of Hispaniola it will likely fall apart because the tall mountains on the island will tear it apart. 

Once we get past that point we’ll have a much better handle on the forecast into early next week. 

TS Erika causing damage in Dominica

Heavy rains from Erika are producing severe flash flooding on the island of Dominica today.

Canefield Airport in Dominica recorded 12.64 inches of rain in 12 hours due to heavy rains from Erika. There are reports of 4 fatalities there due to flash flooding.

The storm knocked out power and water supplies and had dumped 15 inches (38 centimeters) of rain on Dominica by early Thursday, according to the weather service in the nearby island of Antigua.

Officials say at least four people have died as a result of flooding and mudslides caused by the storm.

Police Superintendent Daniel Carbon said an elderly blind man and two children died following a mudslide in the southeast of the island. Another man was found dead near his home in the capital of Roseau after a mudslide, but the cause of death has not yet been determined, Carbon told The Associated Press.

About 80 percent of the island was without electricity, and water supply was cut off, authorities said. Trees and lightpoles were strewn across streets as water rushed over parked cars and ripped the scaffolding off some buildings. The main airport was closed due to flooding, with water rushing over at least one small plane.

It's centered about 160 miles west of Guadeloupe. It’s moving west at 16 mph still.

Erika is still being hit with shear. The center has reformed south and west away from the thunderstorms.

The deepest convection is east and southeast of the center due to the westerly shear. The computer models show the shear increasing so the environment is not favorable for significant strengthening during the next couple of days. If Erika survives the next three days and reaches the Bahamas, the environment is expected to become favorable for strengthening.

  • Location at 11 p.m. Thursday: 16.6 N, 65.3 W
  • How far is it?
    • 85 mi. SSW of St. Croix
    • 135 mi. SSE of San Juan, Puerto Rico
    • 1,182 mi. ESE of Miami
    • 1,289 mi. SE of Melbourne
    • 1,334 mi. SE of Orlando
    • 1,352 mi. SE of Daytona Beach
  • Winds: 45 mph
  • Movement: W at 17 mph
  • Pressure: 1,008 mb / 29.77 inches

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Tropical Storm Erika Advisory

11 p.m. — Tropical storm force winds affecting the U.S. Virgin Islands and approaching Puerto Rico.

Watches and Warnings

Changes with this advisory:

  • None.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect:
A tropical storm warning is in effect for…

  • St. Martin
  • St. Barthelemy
  • Puerto Rico
  • Vieques
  • Culebra
  • U.S. Virgin Islands
  • British Virgin Islands
  • Dominican Republic from the northern border with Haiti eastward and southward to Isla Saona
  • Southeastern Bahamas
  • Turks and Caicos Islands

A tropical storm watch is in effect for:

  • Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque
  • Central Bahamas

Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and in Haiti should monitor the progress of Erika.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook

At 11 p.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.6 north, longitude 65.3 west.

Erika moving westward near 17 mph. A turn to the west-northwest is anticipated on Friday, and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near Puerto Rico during the next several hours and move near or over the Dominican Republic on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph, with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles primarily to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1,008 mb (29.77 inches).

Hazards affecting land

Wind: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the Virgin Islands and will spread across Puerto Rico during the next several hours. These conditions should spread westward across portions of the Dominican Republic on Friday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands late Friday.

Rainfall: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas through Saturday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Next Advisory
Next complete advisory at 5 a.m.