Joaquin has strengthened into a category 3 hurricane as it moves toward the central Bahamas. Other than some rough surf, it is not expected to impact Florida.
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts.
Joaquin is getting more organized and will probably be a category 4 storm in the next 24 hours.
Joaquin will be near the Eastern Bahama islands the next 24 hours with little movement. Then it will begin a northerly movement on Friday.
Most computer models show it making landfall in North Carolina late this weekend. However, one of the most reliable models (the European), that we use for our own forecasting, is showing Joaquin staying offshore from the U.S.
The weird part is that the European model has been the most consistent and accurate to this point but it’s the outlier going forward. We’ll get a clearer picture on where it’s really going on Friday as the features in the upper atmosphere will be resolved.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for:
Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador,Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, New Providence.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for:
Bimini and Andros Island
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:
Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands, but excluding the Turks and Caicos Islands, as well as Andros Island.
