We have been talking for some time about the El Nino developing in the subtropical Pacific Ocean and what it could mean for the weather in our area. We speak of a more active jet stream which can bring potent storm systems and weather disturbances across the Gulf of Mexico and into west-central Florida.
Well, this pattern is taking shape for the next few days. The high clouds that we have had have been transported in on the fast jet stream coming from the west southwest.
A strong low pressure area in northern Mexico will move into the western Gulf of Mexico by Thursday. A surface low pressure area is expected to develop.
Its warm front will be across South Florida by Thursday evening. With the very strong jet stream and our winds switching around from the southeast, strong to severe thunderstorms will develop Thursday night in the gulf. The waters are warm enough to generate some instability leading to some more intense storms in the gulf.
These storms are expected to move into west-central Florida and the Tampa Bay area on Friday morning. The water temperature just offshore is cooler, so there is the possibility of some storm weakening.
With that said, we are expecting a round of rain and embedded thunderstorms during the morning hours on Friday. This may impact the morning commute as well. The main threat would be damaging wind and the possibility of an isolated tornado.
There are some questions that still remain in the details of the forecast. Mainly, with a lack of instability over land due to cooler temperatures, will the storms in the gulf be able to maintain intensity as they move our way? That is something that we will be watching closely Friday morning.
After that, a similar storm system will move through Sunday. There is some more uncertainty with that system as the exact track of the low for Sunday remains in question. Stay tuned....