Story last updated 11 p.m. ET Tuesday:
The hurricane watches that had been issued along the southeastern coast of Florida ahead of the approach of Hurricane Matthew became warnings late Tuesday night, and the watch has crept northward.
- Hurricane warning from Golden Beach to Sebastian Inlet
- Matthew made landfall in Cuba on Tuesday night
- Hurricane conditions expected in Florida late Thursday
The center of the eye of Matthew made landfall near Juaco, Cuba, on Tuesday evening. As of the 11 p.m. ET update, Matthew was about 55 miles east northeast of Guantanamo Bay.
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The previous hurricane watch was extended northward to the Flagler/Volusia County line.
Because of interaction with land, Matthew weakened slightly Tuesday evening to maximum sustained winds of 130 mph. The east side of Cuba has very tall mountains, and that interaction has disrupted the circulation slightly.
Despite that, Matthew is still a major hurricane moving toward the Bahamas. The track forecast in the next 24 to 48 hours is fairly straightforward. After that, though, there are some elements in the upper atmosphere that will cause Matthew to turn more northwestward rather than north. This motion will bring the hurricane closer to the east coast of Florida.
At some point Thursday or Friday, an upper-level system moving across the northern United States will allow Matthew to turn back to the northeast. The question remains of when this will happen. That's the main reason there's some uncertainty in the track forecast.
When a hurricane is forecast to run parallel to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do along Florida's east coast, it presents a larger challenge in the exact track forecast and any concern of landfall this far in advance, because even a small jog to the left or right would make a huge difference in where hurricane conditions may set up. A few miles west would mean a larger area of hurricane conditions along the east coast, and a jog or wobble eastward would mean hurricane conditions would stay offshore.
So it will likely take another day or so to iron out the details of the potential impacts of Matthew in Florida.
Along the east coast, hurricane conditions are possible by Thursday into Friday, first farther south and moving northward through that time frame.
In the Tampa Bay counties, we'll see mainly breezy to occasionally windy with squalls. The region will very likely be on the drier side, especially if the center remains off the east coast of Florida. It's too early to rule out any impacts at all on the west coast. Boating conditions will certainly deteriorate later in the week.
.@Mike_Clay With Tropical Storm Nicole named today, the next name on the list is Otto. pic.twitter.com/Y9zLXErVpN
— Bay News 9 Weather (@bn9weather) October 4, 2016
Matthew pounded the southwestern coast of Haiti on Tuesday, threatening a largely rural corner of the impoverished country with devastating storm conditions.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Nicole formed Tuesday in the Atlantic Ocean, but it's no threat to Florida.
Make sure to watch our Tropical Updates each hour at :49.
Forecast track
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Spaghetti models
Remember that the spaghetti model plot does not indicate the strength of a system or even development at all. It only predicts where this broad area of low pressure is expected to go.