I have been a meteorologist for almost 20 years. In that time, I have heard the cracks: "It must be nice to have a job where you only have to be right half the time."
I understand the notion. I welcome it. After all, meteorology is still an inexact science. But it has come a very long way, even over the two decades that I have been involved with it.
At first, I used to just shrug my shoulders and chuckle, knowing in my heart that there are times when we are wrong. I used to remind people that there are two operational forecasts every day. That means in one year, there are over 700 forecasts. Maybe we are wrong 10 times? Those are pretty good results, if you ask me.
Of course we don’t want to be wrong when it really matters. When there is a major weather event on the horizon, for example. That is why it is also our job to communicate effectively what is going to happen, but also if there is any uncertainty with a particular forecast.
The notion of the meteorologist being wrong so often doesn’t come from anyone doing a study; it comes from a perception.
Over the last few years, with social media and the 24-hour national news cycle, misperceptions have been running rampant. This really came to light in my mind of the last two weeks, when two national news stories involving weather were grossly misreported.
The first, was a tornado outbreak in the Deep South. The headline on one of the national news programs that night was “Without Warning.” This was immensely frustrating to me for a few reasons. One, because it was untrue. Two, it spread like wildfire on social media. So now, those mostly disconnected with daily forecasts think that the meteorologists were wrong again.
Well, I can go into great detail and length about how that particular tornado outbreak was not only not a surprise, but it was actually very well forecast from about seven days beforehand.
Is it possible that those affected didn’t know about the impending dangerous weather? Of course. But that wasn’t because the meteorological community dropped the ball.
The second event occurred this past weekend, when a Royal Caribbean cruise ship experienced very rough wind and ocean conditions on its way from New York to Port Canaveral, Florida.
Many pictures and reports from passengers on the ship flooded social media. National news reports picked up on it. Then the cruise line stated that they were “caught off guard by the conditions." This official statement again portrays to the world that a meteorologist didn’t get the forecast correct. More fodder for the “dopey weatherman jokes.”
The truth is that storm was again very well forecast from several days out. It’s exact conditions and location of those conditions were precisely predicted from 4-5 days out. Did someone drop the ball? You bet. But that is for other folks to figure out who and how and why. For me, it is about perception again.
Now, I will admit, that when I first got into this field, my skin wasn’t quite as thick as it is now. And I used some of that to, I hope, become a better communicator of the weather.
I am also sure that some meteorologists need some work (myself included) in getting better, both from a forecast accuracy standpoint, and a communication standpoint.
I have had incorrect forecasts in the past, and I am sure I will have more in the future. It is important for me that our viewers know that. It is important that if I am wrong, that I take ownership of the mistake. That way, you the viewer, know that it won’t happen again.
I am getting down off my soapbox now to enjoy the weather!