Donald Trump's poor standing among women, Hispanics and young voters could create a drag on the Republican ticket potent enough to flip as many as 16 Republican-held Florida House seats to the Democrats, some party strategists believe.

  • Democrats particularly optimistic about picking up seats in Miami-Dade County
  • Republicans believe predictions of massive losses in November are premature

Eight of the seats are in swing districts in Tampa Bay and Central Florida that have historically favored Democrats in presidential election years, when Democratic turnout is typically higher. The other eight are in South Florida, where changing demographics, including an influx of non-Cuban Hispanics, represent an additional challenge for Republican incumbents.

Making the electoral landscape in the districts especially volatile for Republicans, strategists say, are Trump's derogatory remarks about Hispanics and his pledge to deport 11 million undocumented immigrants should he win the presidency. As his party's new standard-bearer, Trump's positions are likely to influence the campaigns of down-ticket Republicans.

Democrats are particularly optimistic about their chances of picking up some or all of the targeted seats in Miami-Dade County.

"You're looking at a place that Obama won by 22 points last time; Clinton may win by 35 or 40 points," predicted Democratic strategist Steve Schale. "For people that are in swing districts, where maybe they only had to deal with a couple point difference, now (with) maybe a 20-point difference, it becomes a lot harder to get re-elected."

Even if Democrats were to sweep the vulnerable Republican-held seats, however, the party would remain firmly in the minority in Tallahassee. Republicans outnumber Democrats two-to-one in the House, though they would lose some valuable procedural tools that accompany their supermajority status, such as placing time limits on floor debates of contentious bills.

And many Republicans believe the predictions of massive losses in November are premature, not least among them the party's presumptive presidential nominee.

"Some people say, 'it's inclined toward the Democrats'," Trump told a recent rally, referring to states traditionally carried by Democratic presidential candidates. "And then I walk in, they said, 'Mister Trump', and I talk to people, you know, like consultants. They said 'Mister Trump, I have to be honest. You've got something going on that we've never seen before. You will win this state. You're going to win this state'."