The first image below shows the last visible satellite image before sunset tonight.
The tropical low we've been tracking is currently just north of Puerto Rico. You can actually see it if you look closely (see the number "1" in the image).
But there's no tight circulation and no thunderstorm activity around this low. Also, another vorticity/low broke away to the southwest near the Dominican Republic today (see number two "2"), and a mid-level low broke away to the south (indicated at 3).
On top of all that, upper level wind shear is coming in from the west (indicated with yellow arrows).
In other words, there is a lot working against this tropical low right now, thankfully.
The general thinking is that it will finally move away from the hostile environment this weekend over the Bahamas. At that time, it will also slow way down and be steered by the high pressure to our north.
It's not yet possible to know where it will go, because a weak system is steered differently than a strong system.
If it finally strengthens, it would likely be steered with more influence by the high pressure, and therefore be pushed westward into the Gulf. If it stays weak longer, then the high pressure will have less influence, and it might just keep drifting northwest toward the southeastern Florida coast, or parallel the east coast of Florida.
Above you'll see an ensemble of models run with slightly different variables on input, giving us lines of output on possible scenarios. Notice half of them are taking the low to the east coast of Florida, while half of them are moving it toward the Gulf.
More updates to come…