Wind shear is still shredding Tropical Depression 9, therefore keeping the center of circulation exposed. 

That’s good news for us because the longer it goes without getting organized the weaker it will be when it finally comes ashore in Florida. The Depression will likely become a weak Tropical Storm on Tuesday.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers moved up a preseason game against the Washington Redskins at Raymond James Stadium by a day. The game was originally supposed to happen Thursday, but it's been moved to Wednesday at 8 p.m. to avoid the storm. More information is available on the Bucs' website.

It might intensify briefly Wednesday night into early Thursday, but it will only have a small window to grow because it will get pushed northeastward as a cold front approaches from the north. 

Again, this looks like a good scenario for our state because it looks unlikely to have time to grow into a strong hurricane.  But rather, what is more likely, is that it will be a tropical storm wherever it comes ashore.

Don’t concentrate on the center line of the track. Tropical storms are different from hurricanes in that they have weaker winds, but they spread those winds out over a farther distance. 

So there could be gusty winds hundreds of miles away from the center of circulation.  Also, in weak tropical storms, the heaviest rain doesn’t actually fall near the center, but rather to the east/southeast of the center.

HOW CLOSE IS THE STORM?

  • Key West: 238 miles WSW
  • Tampa: 337 miles SSW
  • Orlando: 406 miles SW
  • Tallahassee: 459 miles S

With all that in mind, we can expect winds to increase Wednesday, with tropical storm force winds likely on Thursday. The strongest winds will likely be from Tampa Bay northward. 

There will be batches of heavy rain, with coastal areas picking up the largest amounts.  So be ready for localized flooding in the typical low spots. 

Tides will likely run a couple feet above normal from late Wednesday through Friday morning, therefore expect some coastal tidal flooding. 

Boating conditions will go downhill Wednesday and boats are advised to remain docked or sheltered from Wednesday through Friday until the storm passes.

This will all be gone for the upcoming holiday weekend.

Remember that the spaghetti model plot does not indicate the strength of a system or even development at all. It only predicts where this broad area of low pressure is expected to go.

Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Eight was expected to become a tropical storm Monday night, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the coast of North Carolina from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet.

Hurricane Gaston is in the Atlantic Ocean and drifting northward.  A turn toward the northeast is expected on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph.  Gaston is a category 3 hurricane. Slow weakening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Interactive Hurricane Tracker