Tropical Storm Hermine is crawling northward with strength at 60 mph. It is expected to become a hurricane when it makes landfall. A hurricane warning has been issued for portions of the Gulf Coast.

  • Bay News 9's team of weather experts will be updating the conditions every 10 minutes through the duration of the storm threat
  • Our reporters will be live to bring you the latest on conditions near you 

Small storms tend to make erratic movements when they're in hostile environments. Since the dry air and wind shear is on the west side, the center of circulation therefore kept reforming to the east under the more moist air mass.

  • Hurricane warning: Suwannee River to Mexico Beach
  • Hurricane watch: Coastal Citrus, coastal Hernando, coastal Pasco
  • Tropical storm warning Citrus, Hernando, Pasco
  • Gov. Rick Scott declares State of Emergency in 51 Florida counties

Therefore it will track a little farther to the east than the official forecast track. This is exactly why we constantly say "Don't pay that much attention to the center track."

The worst weather Wednesday was in our area, and we have been over 300 miles to the east of the center. We will see heavy rain squalls again Thursday with gusty winds, even though the center will stay to our west.

More than 11 inches of rain had fallen by 9:30 p.m. Wednesday in parts of Largo, with 8+ inches in other locations. Close to 5 inches was reported in St. Petersburg.

Nothing changes to our ongoing forecast for Thursday -- expect stronger winds, more rain squalls, storm surge in coastal areas, localized flooding again like we saw Wednesday, and a possible tornado.

The biggest difference you'll notice on the forecast track is they're now calling for the storm to barely reach Category 1 Hurricane status just before making landfall in the panhandle. Keep in mind there is very little difference between a 70 mph tropical storm and a 75 mph Category 1 Hurricane.

We expect all this to move out on Friday with a return to normal summer conditions over the holiday weekend.


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2 a.m.:
Hermine is expected to make landfall sometime Thursday in the Big Bend area of Florida as a weak category 1 hurricane. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the coast from the Suwannee River to Mexico Beach, with Hurricane Watches in effect for coastal Citrus, coastal Hernando and coastal Pasco counties.

11:40 p.m.
Meteorologist Brian McClure: Nothing changes to our ongoing forecast for Thursday -- expect stronger winds, more rain squalls, storm surge in coastal areas, localized flooding again like we saw Wednesday, and a possible tornado.

11:05 p.m.
Tropical Storm Hermine now has maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

10:40 p.m.
Bay News 9 Meteorologist Brian McClure tweets about the break in the heavy rain. Good news, as it will allow the drainage to catch up tonight.

9:30 p.m.
Rainfall totals continue to be staggering, with 11+ inches in Largo and 8+ in other locations. Here is a look at some locations from Meteorologist Brian McClure.

8:55 p.m.
Latest advisories -- follow the Bay News 9 Weather team on Twitter

8 p.m.
Tropical Storm Hermine now has sustained winds of about 50 mph.

7 p.m.
Pasco and Hernando Fire Rescue responded to Regional Medical Center Bayonet Point, located at 14000 Fivay Road in Hudson for a report of an electrical fire. Twenty people were evacuated. The incident occurred in a generator room and wasn't believed to be weather related.

5:15 p.m.
Rain totals include more than 9 inches in Largo and 7 inches in Gulfport. Click for the rundown.

4:30 p.m.
Bay News 9 Chief Meteorologist Mike Clay said keep watch on high tide times for Thursday. Here they are.

3 p.m.
Attorney General Pam Bondi has activated Florida's price gouging hotline.

Florida's price gouging law applies within the 42 counties of the declared state of emergency. State law prohibits extreme increases in the price of essential commodities, such as food, ice, gas, hotels, lumber and water during this declared state of emergency.

Anyone who suspects price gouging should report it to the Attorney General’s Office by calling 1-866-9-NO-SCAM. | Q&A about price gouging

12:30 p.m.
Schools will be closed in Hillsborough and Pinellas counties on Thursday. | Click here for all school closing announcements.

11 a.m.
The depression remains nearly stationary over very warm water, but is fighting off moderate wind shear.

9:25 a.m.
Florida Gov. Rick Scott declared a State of Emergency in 42 counties. You can view Scott's executive order on the state's website.

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    Here's a look at the anticipated high tide amounts for Thursday.

Hazards affecting land

Wind: On Thursday, expect winds of 25 to 40 mph with higher gusts 40 to 60 mph possible during the heavy rain squalls.

Storm Surge: If the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide, the water could reach about 2 to 4 feet in Citrus, Hernando and Pasco Counties and about 1 to 2 feet south of there, including Tampa Bay.

Rainfall: Flood Watch in effect for Citrus, Hernando, Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough and Manatee Counties through 8 p.m. Friday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue for the next few days. There will also be river flood warnings due to water levels rising after days of heavy rain.

Tornadoes: There is a risk of tornadoes across the central and northern Florida peninsula through Thursday night.

As you can see in the graphic below, the track has not changed much with the system now moving slowly north. It moved northeast Wednesday and will  accelerate in the Gulf of Mexico Thursday and across North Florida Thursday night. 

It is important not to focus on the forecast landfall point since heavy rain, the threat of tornadoes, and dangerous storm surge flooding is forecast well to the east and south of the center.

  • HOW CLOSE IS THE STORM?
    • Orlando: 388 miles WSW
    • Daytona Beach: 427 miles WSW
    • Cape Canaveral: 426 miles WSW
    • Melbourne: 418 miles WSW
    • Tampa: 310 miles WSW
    • Tallahassee: 350 miles SSW
    • Jacksonville: 441 miles SW

What exactly are the spaghetti plots?
Information You Need | Supply Checklist
Where can I get sandbags?


Remember that the spaghetti model plot does not indicate the strength of a system or even development at all. It only predicts where this broad area of low pressure is expected to go.

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