(Last update: 12:52 a.m.)

Hermine is a Category 1 Hurricane and has made landfall. Life-threatening storm surge is expected in the Florida Big Bend region, with coastal and localized flooding expected here. Hermine is the first hurricane to hit Florida in more than a decade.

Tornado watches are in effect until 8 a.m. Friday in Citrus, Hernando, Hillsborough, Levy, Pasco, Pinellas, Sumter counties. Click here for Klystron 9 radar.

Scroll down for the storm breakdown and more time-stamped updates.

The forecast we've been talking about all week is now happening. Expect the peak impacts of the storm from now into Friday.  We're lucky this was a disorganized storm and doesn't have time to get any worse before landfall.

Breakdown:

- Intervals of very intense rain band squalls will come in from the Gulf overnight through Friday morning.  When they come through, wind gusts will briefly spike into the 40 to 60 mph range.

- There will be localized flooding in low-lying spots inland during times of heavy rains.

- There will be coastal flooding in low spots because the water will not be able to drain fast enough since tides will be at least 2 to 4 feet above normal.

- Expect a storm surge of 2 to 4 feet on coastal Manatee, coastal Pinellas, and in Tampa Bay (this will include many areas around Tampa -- Bayshore, Davis Island, downtown areas, and along the Hillsborough River).

- Expect a storm surge of 3 to 5 feet on coastal Pasco County.

- Expect a storm surge of 4 to 7 feet on coastal Citrus and Hernando County (this will be the worst storm surge those coastal areas have seen in many years -- it will surprise a lot of people, especially newcomers to the area).

- The storm has prompted a second day of SCHOOL CLOSINGS. | You can get the latest list here.

- There will still be a chance for isolated tornadoes overnight.

  • Bay News 9's team of weather experts will be updating the conditions every 10 minutes through the duration of the storm threat
  • Our reporters will be live throughout the duration of the storm threat to bring you the latest on the impacts being felt near you 
  • Melissa Eichman is on a hurricane hunter flight right now. She is flying into Hermine and will update us on the flight as soon as they return. The duration of these flights vary depending on the nature of the storms they fly into so be sure to check back later today for reports from Melissa.

Expect the south wind we have seen all day to slowly go southwest.  This means that the water in the Gulf will be pushed up against our coastline with gradually rising levels in our coastal areas.  The water levels will be highest during High Tide times (graphic below). Expect the peak of the storm surge to be Friday morning and it will slowly subside Friday afternoon/evening.

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The Latest

12:52 p.m. Coastal Flooding occurring in Kings Bay

12:48 p.m. The Citrus County Sheriff's Office is shutting down Ozello Rd at US Hwy 19 due to flooding. Local residents can return only in an emergency. It's also shutting down Ft. Island Trail west of Shrimp Landings. This road will be closed to ALL TRAFFIC due to flooding.

12:15 p.m. Hermine made landfall about 12:15 a.m. Friday. It's the first hurricane to make landfall in Florida in more than a decade.

11:02 p.m. Hermine 29.7 N, 84.3 W; Winds at 80 mph; Moving NNE at 14; Pressure 984 mb

10:53 p.m. Tornado watches are in effect until 8 a.m. Friday in Citrus, Hernando, Hillsborough, Levy, Pasco, Pinellas, Sumter counties.

10:36 p.m. About 22,000 without power according to Duke Energy, mostly in Pasco and Pinellas. 18,110 for Teco Energy in and around Tampa.

9:48 p.m. Our Bay News 9 meteorologists are very concerned about storm surge -- 4-7 feet in some locations including Citrus and Levy counties.

9:26 p.m. Bay News 9 reporter Laurie Davison said there are trees down on Highway 92 in Dover. Driving conditions are very dangerous in that area.

9:15 p.m. More than 24,000 Teco Energy customers are without power in and around Tampa.

9:10 p.m. Chief Meteorologist Mike Clay: Dangerous storm surge developing at Cedar Key on tide chart. Low tide very high now!

8:45 p.m. In Lakeland, a large tree came down near St. Anthony and New Jersey Drive. Damage to two homes.

8:35 p.m. An old tree fell on a vehicle and cut off access to a road near Largo High School. The tree was removed by neighbors and the road reopened.

8:30 p.m. A tree is down, with an electrical transformer fire possibly caused by a micro-burst. This is at Stanley Road and Thonotosassa Road in northeast Hillsborough County.

8:20 p.m. A tree has been reported down on CR 48 W at the Wahoo Curve, not far from Bradenton. Road is closed.

8 p.m. Hurricane Hermine is near latitude 29.1 N, longitude 84.8 W or about 45 miles south of Apalachicola. Maxium winds are 80 mph. Movement is NNE at 14 MPH. Pressure is 983 MB. Life-threatening storm surge expected in the Florida big bend region overnight.

7:45 p.m. There is a report of a roof being blown off a mobile home in Bradenton. Exact location unknown.

7 p.m. Duke Energy website reporting 13,000+ customers without power in Pinellas County. FP&L reporting scattered outages in Manatee and Sarasota County. | View Duke Energy outage map

6:40 p.m. A 78 mph gust has been reported at Indian Shores Beach. A 71 mph gust has been reported at Treasure Island.

6:35 p.m. Numerous reports of tree limbs broken in Pinellas County from winds with latest feeder band.

6 p.m. Citrus County Sheriff's Office says, "At this point, it is predicted that Citrus County MAY experience water 5 to 8 feet above ground level in the coastal Homosassa and Crystal River areas. This may occur beginning at 4:00am and later. If you live in a coastal area or an area prone to flooding, we recommend that you evacuate to a safer area or to the shelter at Lecanto Primary School at 3790 W. Educational Path, Lecanto, as a last resort."

5:44 p.m. Tornado warning expires in Pasco/Hernando.

5:40 p.m. Meteorologist Josh Linker: Intense squall just offshore Pinellas/Pasco, some elements are rotating on this one. Strong winds expected along the coast.

5:35 p.m. Earlier in the newscast, our meteorologists showed you a water levels graphic. You can view it yourself by clicking here.

5:30 p.m. Tornado warning in Pasco and Hernando counties until 6 p.m.

5:20 p.m. Meteorologist Josh Linker: With Hermine a hurricane, it is the first time a hurricane has been anywhere in the Gulf since Ingrid, Sept 16, 2013.

5:05 p.m. More school closings -- Get the latest list here.

4:50 p.m. The Marshall Street Wastewater treatment plant influent pump station in Clearwater has experienced failures and has shut down. The system is backing up and wastewater is overflowing through the manholes at some locations. Residents should avoid going down streets that are blocked off.

4:20 p.m. The center of the storm is about 120-150 miles off shore from Tampa.

3:55 p.m. There are reports of street flooding in the Shore Acres area of St. Petersburg.

3:45 p.m. The tornado warning in Hernando and Pasco counties has expired.

3:30 p.m. The Citrus County Sheriff's Office Division of Emergency Management, in conjunction with the Citrus County Board of County Commissioners have declared a local state of emergency due to Hurricane Hermine. Residents living on the coast of Citrus County are being advised ON A VOLUNTARY BASIS to evacuate.

3:27 p.m. Residents in the Aripeka, Hernando Beach should take caution.

3:19 p.m. Tornado warning until 3:45 p.m. in Hernando and Pasco counties.

3:15 p.m. Reports of numerous trees uprooted and limbs down in the St. Petersburg area.

3:02 p.m. Hermine is now a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds.

2:50 p.m. Tornado watch in Pinellas, Polk, Pasco, Hillsborough, Citrus, Hernando until 11 p.m. tonight

2:45 p.m. Tornado warning in Hernando, Pasco allowed to expire.

2:15 p.m. Tornado warning issued for Hernando and Pasco until 2:45 p.m.

1:15 p.m.: Hermine now has 70 mph winds. Still a tropical storm.

1:02 p.m.: A TROPICAL STORM WARNING has just been issued for Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee and Sarasota Counties (this includes Tampa Bay) .  This goes along with the previous one for Citrus, Hernando, Pasco.

12:47 p.m.: Florida Highway Patrol: Skyway Bridge CLOSED now due to high winds. Average 45 mph. Gusts to 56 mph.

12:42 p.m.: Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport just gusted to 49 mph with a heavy squall.

12:05 p.m.: During state EOC press conference, Gov. Rick Scott stresses that Floridians must already have a plan in place and all of the resources your family needs, such as 3 days of food & water, flashlights, etc

11:15 a.m.: No big changes in the forecast track, intensity or watches/ warning on the 11 a.m. advisory.

9:36 a.m.: Today, in preparation for Tropical Storm Hermine, Governor Rick Scott directed all state offices in 51 counties to close on Thursday, September 1st. at noon.  Decisions regarding Friday, September 2nd will be made after further weather updates. All of these counties are under the Governor’s Executive Orders signed yesterday. To view Executive Order 16-206, click HERE and to view Executive Order 16-205, click HERE.

7:01 a.m.: Hillsborough County has activated its Emergency Operations Center in response to Tropical Storm Hermine. This allows County and partner agencies to better coordinate resources and operations.

5 a.m.: We have breezy south winds across Tampa Bay and central Florida this morning. We expect increasing winds out of the southwest by tonight to tropical storm force with the highest winds at the coast. This brings the highest risk of storm surge of about 2-5 feet to our coastal areas, especially Citrus, Hernando and Pasco Counties tonight and early Friday. There could also be coastal flooding in Tampa Bay of about 1-3 feet.

2 a.m.: Hermine is expected to make landfall sometime Thursday in the Big Bend area of Florida as a weak category 1 hurricane. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the coast from the Suwannee River to Mexico Beach, with Hurricane Watches in effect for coastal Citrus, coastal Hernando and coastal Pasco counties.

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    Here's a look at the anticipated high tide amounts for Thursday into Friday.

Hazards affecting land

Wind: Expect winds of 25 to 40 mph with higher gusts 40 to 60 mph possible during the heavy rain squalls.

Storm Surge: If the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide, the water could reach about 4 to 6 feet in Citrus, Hernando and Pasco Counties and about 2 to 4 feet south of there, including Tampa Bay.

Rainfall: Flood Watch in effect for Citrus, Hernando, Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough and Manatee Counties through 8 p.m. Friday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue through Friday. There will also be river flood warnings due to water levels rising after days of heavy rain.

Tornadoes: There is a risk of tornadoes across the central and northern Florida peninsula through Thursday night.

As you can see in the graphic below, the track has not changed much with the system now moving slowly north. It moved northeast Wednesday and will  accelerate in the Gulf of Mexico Thursday and across North Florida Thursday night. 

It is important not to focus on the forecast landfall point since heavy rain, the threat of tornadoes, and dangerous storm surge flooding is forecast well to the east and south of the center.

  • HOW CLOSE IS THE STORM?
    • Orlando: 205 miles WNW
    • Daytona Beach: 209 miles W
    • Cape Canaveral: 246 miles WNW
    • Melbourne: 250 miles WNW
    • Tampa: 159 miles NW
    • Tallahassee: 74 miles SSW
    • Jacksonville: 181 miles WSW

What exactly are the spaghetti plots?
Information You Need | Supply Checklist
Where can I get sandbags?


Remember that the spaghetti model plot does not indicate the strength of a system or even development at all. It only predicts where this broad area of low pressure is expected to go.

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