(11 p.m. update)  Matthew is behaving exactly as expected to this point.

The hurricane is more organized and stronger that it was 24 hours ago.  It’s still moving west, and will continue to do so for the next few days, but will start to slow down by the end of the weekend.  At that point it will slowly start to move northward.

That is where the forecast gets tricky, because wherever it is at that point will likely determine how close it comes to Florida.  The farther west it drifts, the closer it could come to our state.

There are a lot of variables at play and we will slowly narrow in on a more precise forecast each day that goes by.

No matter what, Matthew will not be near Florida this weekend and has nothing to do with our weather for the next few days. 

It will be next week when we’re watching the proximity to determine if it will change our local weather or not.

Make sure to watch our Tropical Updates each hour at :49.

What exactly are the spaghetti plots?
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Remember that the spaghetti model plot does not indicate the strength of a system or even development at all. It only predicts where this broad area of low pressure is expected to go.