Air Force Recon investigated the tropical depression Wednesday afternoon and found it hasn't strengthened at this time -- although satellite images show a well-developed system with rotating bands.
- Tropical Depression 16 in southwestern Caribbean
- System likely to become a Tropical Storm
- Models show landfall between Louisiana, Florida
There is a potential for rapid strengthening, but interaction with land in Central America could counter this. Waters are warm in the Western Caribbean (as they always are) so a Hurricane Watch might be issued for the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.
There is also a strong low, mainly aloft and not surface based, moving through the Florida Straits. This low could be close to our area Thursday and bring our rain chances up. It could also bring gusty winds. We will have to watch this feature overnight and Thursday morning.
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 82.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM W OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
It should move away from us, but the future development could have big implications on the future track of what is now TD 16.
Down the road there is great disagreement among computer models. All show a landfall between Louisiana and Florida over the weekend. More models are showing strengthening, the Euro model shows a hurricane.
No matter what develops, it looks to be lop-sided, with most of the bad weather to the east of the center. This has huge implications for impacts in our area.
A Gulf of Mexico system must be watched closely for a storm surge risk on the West Coast of Florida, Nature Coast and Big Bend. Any slight shift in track could bring major differences in weather and water.
It is simply too early to get into much detail of the track and intensity in the Saturday/Sunday timeframe. We just have to watch this in the coming days.
Make sure to watch our Tropical Updates each hour at :49
• What exactly are the spaghetti plots?
• Information You Need | Supply Checklist
Remember that the spaghetti model plot does not indicate the strength of a system or even development at all. It only predicts where this broad area of low pressure is expected to go.