The first hurricane outlook for 2017 has been released.
Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University says:
"We anticipate that the 2017 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have slightly below average activity. The current neutral ENSO is likely to transition to either weak or moderate El Niño conditions by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past month and the far North Atlantic is relatively cold, potentially indicative of a negative phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation. We anticipate a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”
Forecast Parameter and 1981-2010 Median (in parentheses)
Issue Date 6 April 2017
Named Storms (12.0) 11
Named Storm Days ( (60.1) 50
Hurricanes (6.5) 4
Hurricane Days (21.3) 16
Major Hurricanes (2.0) 2
Major Hurricane Days (3.9)
4 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (92) 75
Hurricane season starts June 1 and ends November 30.