The Colorado State University team has issued their regular July update and has increased the numbers for the season.
Of course, this only makes sense since we’ve already had 3 Named Storms (one in April and two in June). But, Phil Klotzbach at CSU has other good reasons for expecting an active season:
"We have increased our forecast and now believe that 2017 will have above-average activity," Klotzbach said. "The odds of a significant El Niño in 2017 have continued to diminish, and most of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic remains anomalously warm. With the increase in our forecast, the probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean has increased as well.
"As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted."
Named Storms 15 (Average 12) *Up 1
Hurricanes 8 (Average 6) *Up 2
Major Hurricanes 3 (Average 2) * Up 1
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:
1) Entire U.S. coastline - 62 percent (average for last century is 52 percent)
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 39 percent (average for last century is 31 percent)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 38 percent (average for last century is 30 percent)
The next update will be issued August 1 at the start of the most active part of the hurricane season.