Here's your Tampa area weather forecast for late Tuesday into Wednesday morning, with a look at conditions through Thursday evening.

  • Moisture moving out
  • Drier, hotter Wednesday
  • Moisture returns late week

Moisture lingered the past couple of days on the tail of the tropical low that moved northeast of us.  Now that ‘tail of moisture’ is finally lifting northward, which will result in drier air for Wednesday, and therefore a much lower rain chance. 

In the short term, we’ve still seen some scattered showers out there tonight and will have some linger into the early morning hours, especially near coastal locations.  Otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

Wednesday will be partly cloudy to mostly sunny, with only a 20 percent chance of a thunderstorm.  However, if you get one, it will be very heavy.

Keep in mind also that the lower rain chance and lack of cloud cover will bring hotter temperatures, with highs back to the low to mid 90s. Any lingering storms Wednesday night will die down with mostly clear skies into Thursday morning. 

We’ll get back to a more typical summer pattern starting Thursday with mainly afternoon to evening scattered storms.  Highs will be near the low 90s.

Rainfall totals:

Tarpon Springs 6.91
Innisbrook 6.22
Lake Fern 4.8
Trinity 4.45
Land O’ Lakes 3.84
Holiday 3.25
Wesley Chapel 2.87
Eastlake 2.16
Palm Harbor 2.03
Carrollwood 1.72
Weeki Wachee 1.71
Holiday 1.44
Crystal River 1.34
Port Richey 1.25
New Port Richey 1.18
LeCanto 1.16
Inverness 1.12
Sugarmill Woods 1.01
USF .94
Spring Hill .62
Clearwater .24

We should get back to a more typical summertime pattern for Thursday and Friday with partly sunny skies and scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.

TROPICAL:

Tropical Storm Harvey continues to produce heavy rains over the Houston area and other locations in southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana, exacerbating what is already a catastrophic flood event.  Rainfall totals of nearly 50 inches have been observed at several locations in the Greater Houston area and southeastern Texas.  Storm totals could reach higher amounts in some locations, which would be historic for the area.

Harvey consists of a vigorous circulation of low clouds. Strong shear prevails, so no significant change in intensity is anticipated before landfall. A
gradual weakening is forecast once the circulation moves inland.

The disturbance near the North Carolina Coast has not developed.  Surface observations near and offshore the southern coast of North Carolina indicate that an elongated circulation and pressure minimum are located over Onslow Bay, but satellite imagery still shows no signs of a well-defined center.  There have been no recent observations of sustained tropical-storm-force winds.

The disturbance has so far failed to become a tropical cyclone, and since vertical shear is 30-40 kt and increasing, it appears that it now has a low chance of doing so before it becomes extratropical later today.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area near the Cabo Verde Islands have become better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in 2 or 3 days over the eastern Atlantic.  The low is forecast to move generally west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic during the next several days.  Heavy rain is possible over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday.

A Flood Warning continues for the following rivers:

  • Alafia River At Lithia
  • Little Manatee River At Wimauma
  • Manatee River Near Myakka Head
  • Myakka River At Myakka River State Park

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