Hurricane Irma continued to organize and intensify Thursday and is now a major category 3 storm.

Irma won't be near land over the next 5 days, but after that will need to be watched carefully as it could end up near the southeastern U.S. toward the end of next week.

At 11 pm:
LOCATION...17.8N 35.6W
ABOUT 775 MI...1160 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1725 MI...2865 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES

With our new wind-flow technology we're able to illustrate why hurricane forecasting can be very tricky beyond a few days out. Below is a graphic showing where the American GFS computer model believes Hurricane Irma will be located on Friday, Sept. 8. In comparison, notice where the European computer model thinks Irma will be at the same time.

There are other computer models we use and multiple variations of these models also. This is why it's important not to concentrate on any one particular model, but rather get a complete story behind what's happening.  

There will be a cold front moving off the eastern seaboard of the U.S. next week. If Irma is far enough north it will likely be pulled northward, but if Irma is not far enough north it might 'miss' that front and keep moving westward.

But it gets more complicated than that...Irma will have speed fluctuations and wobble in different directions during this next week. It will also likely have intensity fluctuations, which can alter the course of Irma during that time.

All computer models have at least some error, which in the short term usually isn't a huge deal. But when you translate those errors a week into the future, they can be off by hundreds of miles and the intensity can be wildly incorrect also.

Here at Bay News 9 we firmly believe in what is referred to as an 'ensemble model' approach. We look at all the iterations of the GFS and European models and well as other models and we come to a general consensus.  It's like taking an average of all the models put together. This kind of approach has better results than just randomly picking one single model.

It's the perfect time to go over your hurricane preparedness checklist. Make sure you have your supply kit, a plan to evacuate if you're in an evacuation zone and asked to leave and check with your insurance company regarding hurricane and flood coverage.

The peak of the hurricane season is Sept. 10, and the Atlantic looks a bit busy the next couple of weeks.The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.

Make sure to watch our Bay News 9 Tropical Updates each hour at :49

What exactly are the spaghetti plots?
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Remember that the spaghetti model plot does not indicate the strength of a system or even development at all. It only predicts where this broad area of low pressure is expected to go.

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