Weather forecast: Scattered showers, storms return to area

By Brian McClure, Bay News 9 Meteorologist
Last Updated: Wednesday, September 13, 2017, 9:19 PM EDT

Here's your Tampa area weather forecast for late Wednesday into Thursday morning, with a preview of the weekend ahead.

  • Moisture returning
  • Higher humidity
  • Drier next week

It’s been a long few days since Irma passed by. At least we had a couple of dry days with lower humidity to help with the recovery efforts.

That will start to change, though, with increasing humidity and rain chances over the next few days. For now, we’ll have partly cloudy skies into Thursday morning,with lows in the low to mid 70s, but upper 70s at the coast.

There will be scattered showers moving in from the coast for the morning, so don’t be surprised if some areas have rain soon after sunrise.

Thursday will feature scattered showers and storms back in the area for the first time since Irma passed. The rain chance is at about 60 percent.

Highs will be held to the upper 80s due to the extra cloud cover. It will be noticeably more humid the next couple of days with the increase in atmospheric moisture. Any showers and storms that form will move east-northeast across the area.

Thursday night will be partly cloudy with a few lingering storms. Lows will be in the mid to upper 70s.

Friday will feature another round of scattered showers and storms with the coverage at about 50 percent. Highs will be near 90.

TROPICS

Hurricane Jose is barely hanging on as a Category 1 hurricane. It likely will weaken to a tropical storm within a couple of days.

The good news is it will stay away from Florida. It will, however start moving westward late Thursday, but then make a turn to the north Friday into Saturday.

It could potentially come close to the northeastern U.S. way down the road, but there’s also just as good of a chance that Jose stays in the Atlantic.

We’re watching a couple tropical waves in the far eastern Atlantic that could develop over the course of the next week. The good news is that neither of them will be near any land over the next week. But way down the road they might need to be watched to see if they could get near land in the Caribbean if they develop.

We’ll have our eyes on it, but there’s no threats to our region at this time.

Here is a list of the rivers in our area with River Flood Warnings:

Alafia River At Lithia
Hillsborough River Near Hillsborough River State Park
Withlacoochee At Trilby
Withlacoochee River At Croom
Hillsborough River At Morris Bridge
Cypress Creek At Worthington Gardens
Little Manatee River At Wimauma
WimaumaMyakka River At Myakka River State Park
Peace River At Bartow
Peace River At Zolfo Springs
Anclote River At Elfers

DETAILS:

The Alafia River At Lithia

  • Until late Sunday night.
  • At 5 AM Wednesday the stage was 21.7 feet.
  • Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
  • Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
  • The river is expected to fall below flood stage by Sunday evening.
  • At 15.0 feet...Additional residences downstream of State Road 640 bridge begin flooding.
  • At 13.0 feet...River Drive and Squirrel Run Way downstream of State Road 640 are completely covered by water. One home begins to flood.
  • At 12.0 feet...Water begins to affect River Drive and Squirrel Run Way downstream of State Road 640.

The Anclote River At Elfers

  • Until Friday evening.
  • At 8 PM Wednesday the stage was 23.3 feet.
  • Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
  • Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
  • The river is expected to fall below flood stage by Friday morning.
  • At 24.0 feet...Five homes in Anclote River Estates flood.
  • At 23.0 feet...Evacuation recommended for residents of Anclote River Estates. Over 300 homes in the area may need to be evacuated.
  • At 22.0 feet...There is water over the roadway along the Elfers Parkway.

The Hillsborough River Near Hillsborough River State Park

  • Until late Saturday night.
  • At 5 AM Wednesday the stage was 13.8 feet.
  • Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
  • Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
  • The river is expected to fall below flood stage by Saturday evening.
  • At 13.4 feet...Streets in Crystal Springs flood and homes are isolated, but no flooding into homes occurs.
  • At 11.0 feet...Hillsborough River State Park is closed. Lowland flooding occurs at the mobile home park near Branchton on State Road 579.
  • At 8.0 feet...Some State Park operations are suspended.

The Hillsborough River At Morris Bridge

Observed flooding increased from Moderate to Record severity

  • At 11 AM Wednesday the stage was...34.4 feet.
  • Record flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
  • Flood stage is 32.0 feet.
  • The river will continue rising to near 34.8 feet by tomorrow evening then begin falling.
  • Impact...at 35.0 feet...Portions of Morris Bridge road about 3/4 of a mile south of the bridge begin to flood.
  • Impact...at 32.0 feet...Flooding begins at a trailer park downstream from Morris Bridge and just upstream from the northern end of the Tampa Bypass canal.
  • Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 34.4 feet on Sep 8 2004.

The Little Manatee River At Wimauma

  • Until Friday afternoon.
  • At 08 PM Wednesday the stage was 14.8 feet.
  • Moderate flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
  • Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
  • The river is expected to fall below flood stage by late Friday morning.
  • Impact...at 14.5 feet...Flooding of several houses begins near 32nd and 33rd streets in Ruskin.
  • Impact...at 13.0 feet...The canoe rental area floods.
  • Impact...at 11.0 feet...The river overflows its banks.
  • Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 14.8 feet on Dec 28, 1997.

The Myakka River At Myakka River State Park

  • Until further notice.
  • At 5 AM Wednesday the stage was 9.8 feet.
  • Moderate flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
  • Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
  • The river will continue rising to near 10.5 feet by tomorrow morning then begin falling.
  • At 11.0 feet...Homes and bogs flood, water approaches State Road 72.
  • At 8.5 feet...Most of Myakka State Park is closed.

The Cypress Creek At Worthington Gardens

  • Until further notice.
  • At 5 AM Wednesday the stage was 10.8 feet.
  • Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
  • Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
  • The river will continue rising to near 11.4 feet by tomorrow early afternoon then begin falling.
  • At 11.0 feet...Flooding threatens two homes on State Road 54.

The Little Manatee River At Wimauma

  • Until Friday evening.
  • At 5 AM Wednesday the stage was 16.0 feet.
  • Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
  • Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
  • The river is expected to fall below flood stage by Friday afternoon.
  • At 14.5 feet...Flooding of several houses begins near 32nd and 33rd  streets in Ruskin.

The Withlacoochee At Trilby

  • Until further notice.
  • At 4 AM Wednesday the stage was 14.8 feet.
  • Moderate flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
  • Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
  • The river will continue rising to near 15.0 feet by tomorrow morning then begin falling.
  • At 15.3 feet...Riverdale trailers are flooded.
  • At 14.2 feet...River road east of the river is flooded. One campsite at the park is flooded.
  • At 12.0 feet...Flooding begins at Lacoochee, Talisman Estates, Riverdale, and River Height Estates.

The Withlacoochee River At Croom

  • From this morning through further notice.
  • At 4 AM Wednesday the stage was 8.8 feet.
  • Minor flooding is forecast.
  • Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
  • Forecast to rise above flood stage by this morning and continue to rise to near 10.5 feet by early Monday morning. Additional rises are possible thereafter.

The Peace River At Bartow

  • Until further notice.
  • At 5 AM Wednesday the stage was 9.2 feet.
  • Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
  • Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
  • The river will continue rising to near 9.3 feet by after midnight tomorrow then begin falling.
  • Impact...at 8.0 feet...Private roads downstream flood.

The Peace River At Zolfo Springs

  • Until further notice.
  • At 4 AM Wednesday the stage was 23.8 feet.
  • Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
  • Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
  • The river will continue to fall to a stage of 20.1 feet by Thursday.

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