Exclusive Poll: Trump dominates among Florida voters

By Caitlyn Jones and Mike Westfall, Team Coverage
Last Updated: Tuesday, November 03, 2015, 11:44 AM

Donald Trump is dominating in our exclusive Florida Decides presidential poll released Tuesday, both among his fellow Republican candidates and likely Democratic challengers in a head-to-head general election.

Here are some of the main highlights of the Bay News 9 / News 13 Florida Decides Poll, conducted via telephone from Wednesday, Oct. 28 through Sunday, Nov. 1.

  • Trump tops Ben Carson and Marco Rubio 2:1 in a GOP primary
  • Former Gov. Jeb Bush runs 5th among the top 8 GOP candidates
  • Hillary Clinton dispatches Bernie Sanders 3:1 in a Democratic primary
  • Florida would go red if Trump or Carson face Clinton in general election

Jump to the view the complete poll results ▼

The poll found 37 percent of Floridians likely to vote in the Republican primary on March 15 said they would vote for Trump if the primary were held today (View Results: GOP Primary).

Trump had a large, 20 percent lead over his closest runner-up, Ben Carson, who got 17 percent support from likely Republican voters. Not far behind Carson was Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, with 16 percent.

We asked our Republican political analyst, former U.S. Rep. Lou Frey, what makes Trump a Florida favorite, overpowering both Rubio and former Gov. Jeb Bush in their home state.

"I don't understand how he's gotten so many votes, actually, in Florida, but I think he's earned them. He's worked hard at it," Frey said.

Our exclusive poll also showed Hillary Clinton with a fierce lead, 66 percent to Bernie Sanders' 24 percent, among likely Democratic voters (View Results: Democratic Primary). Our Democratic political analyst, former state Rep. Dick Batchelor, said we would likely see a similar result on primary day.

"She's very popular in the state; she'll do very well," Batchelor said. "Bernie Sanders might come up by a few points, but he's not going to win the nomination. Hillary Clinton is going to win the nomination in Florida."

But Batchelor doesn't think the success of nontraditional candidates like Trump and Carson will stick a year from now, when the votes really count.

"I don't think people are serious about it," Batchelor said. "The fact is I would welcome it as a Democrat if Ben Carson or Donald Trump would be the Republican nominee. I hope that's the case. Give them to us, because I think Hilary Clinton would beat them both."

The poll, however, tells a different story. Voters surveyed picked both Trump and Carson over Clinton in a head-to-head matchup on Election Day 2016.  (View Results: Clinton vs. Trump | Clinton vs. Carson)

Clinton's chances were better against he lower-polling Bush and Carly Fiorina, but against Rubio, Florida is too close to call. (View Results: Clinton vs. Bush | Clinton vs. Rubio | Clinton vs. Fiorina)

In each matchup, however, 9 percent of voters said they were still undecided.

One thing that surprised both analysts was the low number of undecided voters when it came to each party's primary: 6 percent among likely Democratic voters and only 3 percent among Republicans polled.

"They know what they want, and they're probably going to change their mind a whole bunch along the line," Frey said.


Poll Results & Highlights


Republican Primary

Q: If the Republican primary for president were today, who would you vote for?

ALL TOTAL
Donald Trump 37%
Ben Carson 17%
Carly Fiorina 3%
Marco Rubio 16%
Jeb Bush 7%
Ted Cruz 10%
John Kasich 3%
Mike Huckabee 1%
Other 2%
Undecided 3%
GENDER Male Female  
Donald Trump 39% 33%
Ben Carson 15% 20%
Carly Fiorina 3% 3%
Marco Rubio 16% 16%
Jeb Bush 7% 8%
Ted Cruz 12% 9%
John Kasich 3% 4%
Mike Huckabee 0% 2%
Other 2% 2%
Undecided 3% 4%
AGE GROUP 18–34 35–49 50–64 65+
Donald Trump 33% 42% 40% 31%
Ben Carson 28% 16% 15% 16%
Carly Fiorina 5% 4% 3% 2%
Marco Rubio 11% 13% 14% 21%
Jeb Bush 4% 6% 9% 8%
Ted Cruz 7% 6% 12% 11%
John Kasich 2% 4% 2% 5%
Mike Huckabee 2% 0% 2% 0%
Other 5% 1% 1% 1%
Undecided 2% 7% 2% 4%
  Under 50 50+  
Donald Trump 39% 36%
Ben Carson 21% 16%
Carly Fiorina 5% 2%
Marco Rubio 12% 18%
Jeb Bush 5% 8%
Ted Cruz 7% 12%
John Kasich 3% 3%
Mike Huckabee 1% 1%
Other 3% 1%
Undecided 5% 3%
HISPANIC Cuban Non-Cuban  
Donald Trump 25% 41%
Ben Carson 23% 15%
Carly Fiorina 5% 4%
Marco Rubio 23% 9%
Jeb Bush 9% 13%
Ted Cruz 9% 3%
John Kasich 5% 1%
Mike Huckabee 0% 4%
Other 0% 10%
Undecided 2% 0%
RACE White Black Asian / Other  
Donald Trump 37% 28% **
Ben Carson 17% 33% **
Carly Fiorina 3% 8% **
Marco Rubio 17% 11% **
Jeb Bush 7% 7% **
Ted Cruz 10% 7% **
John Kasich 3% 6% **
Mike Huckabee 1% 0% **
Other 2% 0% **
Undecided 4% 0% **
AFFILIATION Republican Democrat Independent  
Donald Trump 37% ** 31%
Ben Carson 18% ** 11%
Carly Fiorina 3% ** 6%
Marco Rubio 16% ** 8%
Jeb Bush 8% ** 4%
Ted Cruz 10% ** 11%
John Kasich 3% ** 11%
Mike Huckabee 1% ** 0%
Other 1% ** 9%
Undecided 3% ** 9%
IDEOLOGY Conservative Moderate Liberal  
Donald Trump 35% 38% **
Ben Carson 19% 15% **
Carly Fiorina 3% 3% **
Marco Rubio 16% 17% **
Jeb Bush 5% 12% **
Ted Cruz 13% 4% **
John Kasich 3% 4% **
Mike Huckabee 2% 0% **
Other 1% 4% **
Undecided 3% 3% **
TOP ISSUE Economy Immigration National Security Health Care
Donald Trump 35% 49% 32% 35%
Ben Carson 16% 13% 20% 28%
Carly Fiorina 3% 1% 3% 0%
Marco Rubio 18% 9% 22% 15%
Jeb Bush 8% 5% 6% 9%
Ted Cruz 12% 16% 7% 3%
John Kasich 4% 1% 3% 2%
Mike Huckabee 0% 2% 1% 4%
Other 2% 1% 1% 1%
Undecided 3% 2% 5% 3%
EDUCATION High School Some College College Degree  
Donald Trump 38% 38% 35%
Ben Carson 13% 20% 17%
Carly Fiorina 1% 2% 4%
Marco Rubio 17% 13% 18%
Jeb Bush 10% 6% 8%
Ted Cruz 9% 11% 10%
John Kasich 3% 3% 4%
Mike Huckabee 2% 1% 1%
Other 1% 3% 1%
Undecided 6% 3% 2%
INCOME Under $40K $40K – $80K Over $80K  
Donald Trump 40% 37% 33%
Ben Carson 15% 17% 19%
Carly Fiorina 2% 4% 3%
Marco Rubio 14% 15% 19%
Jeb Bush 10% 6% 6%
Ted Cruz 9% 10% 12%
John Kasich 3% 3% 4%
Mike Huckabee 1% 1% 1%
Other 2% 2% 1%
Undecided 4% 3% 3%
REGION Northwest Northeast Central Southwest
Donald Trump 28% 44% 39% 35%
Ben Carson 23% 14% 17% 18%
Carly Fiorina 1% 1% 2% 3%
Marco Rubio 24% 16% 15% 18%
Jeb Bush 4% 4% 8% 7%
Ted Cruz 15% 13% 9% 7%
John Kasich 1% 2% 3% 5%
Mike Huckabee 2% 1% 1% 2%
Other 0% 0% 2% 2%
Undecided 3% 5% 3% 4%
  Southeast  
Donald Trump 35%
Ben Carson 17%
Carly Fiorina 5%
Marco Rubio 13%
Jeb Bush 10%
Ted Cruz 12%
John Kasich 3%
Mike Huckabee 0%
Other 2%
Undecided 2%


Democratic Primary

Q: If the Democratic primary for president were today, who would you vote for?

ALL TOTAL
Hillary Clinton 66%
Bernie Sanders 24%
Martin O'Malley 3%
Other 2%
Undecided 6%
GENDER Male Female  
Hillary Clinton 62% 68%
Bernie Sanders 27% 21%
Martin O'Malley 4% 2%
Other 2% 2%
Undecided 5% 6%
AGE GROUP 18–34 35–49 50–64 65+
Hillary Clinton 50% 69% 65% 72%
Bernie Sanders 41% 19% 26% 16%
Martin O'Malley 5% 3% 2% 4%
Other 0% 1% 2% 3%
Undecided 4% 8% 6% 5%
  Under 50 50+  
Hillary Clinton 61% 68%
Bernie Sanders 28% 21%
Martin O'Malley 4% 3%
Other 1% 3%
Undecided 6% 5%
HISPANIC Cuban Non-Cuban  
Hillary Clinton ** 75%
Bernie Sanders ** 19%
Martin O'Malley ** 3%
Other ** 1%
Undecided ** 2%
RACE White Black Asian / Other  
Hillary Clinton 60% 81% 75%
Bernie Sanders 29% 9% 15%
Martin O'Malley 3% 2% 3%
Other 2% 1% 5%
Undecided 6% 6% 3%
AFFILIATION Republican Democrat Independent  
Hillary Clinton ** 68% **
Bernie Sanders ** 23% **
Martin O'Malley ** 3% **
Other ** 2% **
Undecided ** 5% **
IDEOLOGY Conservative Moderate Liberal  
Hillary Clinton 58% 71% 63%
Bernie Sanders 23% 18% 32%
Martin O'Malley 6% 4% 1%
Other 3% 2% 1%
Undecided 9% 6% 3%
TOP ISSUE Economy Immigration National Security Health Care
Hillary Clinton 68% 66% 65% 68%
Bernie Sanders 24% 11% 20% 24%
Martin O'Malley 3% 7% 2% 1%
Other 1% 5% 5% 1%
Undecided 4% 11% 8% 8%
EDUCATION High School Some College College Degree  
Hillary Clinton 70% 64% 66%
Bernie Sanders 12% 25% 26%
Martin O'Malley 4% 4% 2%
Other 4% 1% 2%
Undecided 10% 6% 4%
INCOME Under $40K $40K – $80K Over $80K  
Hillary Clinton 66% 63% 69%
Bernie Sanders 21% 26% 25%
Martin O'Malley 3% 3% 4%
Other 2% 2% 1%
Undecided 8% 6% 2%
REGION Northwest Northeast Central Southwest
Hillary Clinton 79% 51% 62% 62%
Bernie Sanders 8% 33% 26% 25%
Martin O'Malley 2% 2% 6% 4%
Other 5% 1% 1% 2%
Undecided 6% 13% 4% 7%
  Southeast  
Hillary Clinton 73%
Bernie Sanders 21%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Other 2%
Undecided 4%


General Election: Clinton vs. Trump

Q: If the general election for president were today and the candidates were Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump, who would you vote for?

ALL TOTAL
Hillary Clinton 43%
Donald Trump 47%
Undecided 9%
GENDER Male Female  
Hillary Clinton 39% 47%
Donald Trump 53% 42%
Undecided 8% 10%
AGE GROUP 18–34 35–49 50–64 65+
Hillary Clinton 48% 45% 42% 41%
Donald Trump 41% 44% 49% 51%
Undecided 11% 11% 9% 9%
  Under 50 50+  
Hillary Clinton 46% 41%
Donald Trump 43% 50%
Undecided 11% 9%
HISPANIC Cuban Non-Cuban  
Hillary Clinton ** 57%
Donald Trump ** 35%
Undecided ** 8%
RACE White Black Asian / Other  
Hillary Clinton 37% 82% 50%
Donald Trump 53% 13% 39%
Undecided 10% 5% 11%
PARTY REGISTRATION Republican Democrat Unaffiliated  
Hillary Clinton 9% 81% 36%
Donald Trump 82% 13% 45%
Undecided 9% 5% 19%
AFFILIATION Republican Democrat Independent  
Hillary Clinton 9% 82% 35%
Donald Trump 82% 13% 46%
Undecided 9% 5% 18%
IDEOLOGY Conservative Moderate Liberal  
Hillary Clinton 14% 48% 86%
Donald Trump 78% 40% 9%
Undecided 8% 12% 5%
TOP ISSUE Economy Immigration National Security Health Care
Hillary Clinton 44% 25% 24% 63%
Donald Trump 46% 71% 64% 28%
Undecided 10% 4% 12% 9%
EDUCATION High School Some College College Degree  
Hillary Clinton 39% 42% 46%
Donald Trump 47% 48% 46%
Undecided 14% 10% 8%
INCOME Under $40K $40K – $80K Over $80K  
Hillary Clinton 47% 41% 42%
Donald Trump 42% 49% 50%
Undecided 11% 9% 8%
REGION Northwest Northeast Central Southwest
Hillary Clinton 34% 42% 39% 43%
Donald Trump 59% 50% 53% 48%
Undecided 7% 9% 8% 9%
  Southeast  
Hillary Clinton 51%
Donald Trump 37%
Undecided 12%


General Election: Clinton vs. Carson

Q: What if it were Hillary Clinton and Republican Ben Carson?

ALL TOTAL
Hillary Clinton 44%
Ben Carson 47%
Undecided 9%
GENDER Male Female  
Hillary Clinton 41% 48%
Ben Carson 50% 43%
Undecided 9% 9%
AGE GROUP 18–34 35–49 50–64 65+
Hillary Clinton 48% 47% 44% 42%
Ben Carson 42% 43% 47% 51%
Undecided 11% 10% 9% 7%
  Under 50 50+  
Hillary Clinton 47% 43%
Ben Carson 42% 49%
Undecided 11% 8%
HISPANIC Cuban Non-Cuban  
Hillary Clinton ** 60%
Ben Carson ** 36%
Undecided ** 3%
RACE White Black Asian / Other  
Hillary Clinton 39% 77% 46%
Ben Carson 51% 17% 43%
Undecided 9% 6% 11%
PARTY REGISTRATION Republican Democrat Unaffiliated  
Hillary Clinton 10% 82% 37%
Ben Carson 82% 12% 44%
Undecided 8% 5% 18%
AFFILIATION Republican Democrat Independent  
Hillary Clinton 10% 83% 37%
Ben Carson 82% 12% 46%
Undecided 9% 5% 17%
IDEOLOGY Conservative Moderate Liberal  
Hillary Clinton 13% 51% 86%
Ben Carson 81% 37% 8%
Undecided 6% 12% 6%
TOP ISSUE Economy Immigration National Security Health Care
Hillary Clinton 46% 27% 25% 64%
Ben Carson 46% 66% 64% 27%
Undecided 9% 7% 11% 9%
EDUCATION High School Some College College Degree  
Hillary Clinton 42% 44% 46%
Ben Carson 46% 47% 46%
Undecided 13% 9% 8%
INCOME Under $40K $40K – $80K Over $80K  
Hillary Clinton 47% 43% 43%
Ben Carson 41% 48% 49%
Undecided 11% 9% 7%
REGION Northwest Northeast Central Southwest
Hillary Clinton 36% 39% 41% 43%
Ben Carson 57% 53% 52% 48%
Undecided 7% 8% 8% 9%
  Southeast  
Hillary Clinton 54%
Ben Carson 35%
Undecided 12%


General Election: Clinton vs. Bush

Q: What if it were Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb Bush?

ALL TOTAL
Hillary Clinton 46%
Jeb Bush 44%
Undecided 10%
GENDER Male Female  
Hillary Clinton 43% 49%
Jeb Bush 46% 41%
Undecided 11% 10%
AGE GROUP 18–34 35–49 50–64 65+
Hillary Clinton 52% 48% 44% 43%
Jeb Bush 35% 40% 45% 48%
Undecided 13% 11% 11% 8%
  Under 50 50+  
Hillary Clinton 50% 44%
Jeb Bush 39% 46%
Undecided 12% 10%
HISPANIC Cuban Non-Cuban  
Hillary Clinton ** 56%
Jeb Bush ** 34%
Undecided ** 10%
RACE White Black Asian / Other  
Hillary Clinton 40% 82% 50%
Jeb Bush 49% 13% 36%
Undecided 11% 6% 14%
PARTY REGISTRATION Republican Democrat Unaffiliated  
Hillary Clinton 12% 84% 38%
Jeb Bush 77% 10% 42%
Undecided 11% 5% 20%
AFFILIATION Republican Democrat Independent  
Hillary Clinton 12% 85% 37%
Jeb Bush 77% 10% 43%
Undecided 11% 5% 19%
IDEOLOGY Conservative Moderate Liberal  
Hillary Clinton 15% 51% 89%
Jeb Bush 74% 37% 6%
Undecided 11% 12% 5%
TOP ISSUE Economy Immigration National Security Health Care
Hillary Clinton 48% 29% 24% 64%
Jeb Bush 42% 59% 64% 30%
Undecided 10% 12% 12% 6%
EDUCATION High School Some College College Degree  
Hillary Clinton 42% 43% 49%
Jeb Bush 48% 45% 41%
Undecided 11% 12% 9%
INCOME Under $40K $40K – $80K Over $80K  
Hillary Clinton 50% 45% 44%
Jeb Bush 39% 45% 47%
Undecided 12% 10% 9%
REGION Northwest Northeast Central Southwest
Hillary Clinton 38% 41% 41% 45%
Jeb Bush 51% 52% 48% 44%
Undecided 11% 7% 11% 11%
  Southeast  
Hillary Clinton 55%
Jeb Bush 34%
Undecided 11%


General Election: Clinton vs. Rubio

Q: What if it were Hillary Clinton and Republican Marco Rubio?

ALL TOTAL
Hillary Clinton 46%
Marco Rubio 45%
Undecided 8%
GENDER Male Female  
Hillary Clinton 44% 49%
Marco Rubio 49% 42%
Undecided 8% 9%
AGE GROUP 18–34 35–49 50–64 65+
Hillary Clinton 48% 50% 46% 43%
Marco Rubio 39% 40% 46% 51%
Undecided 13% 10% 8% 5%
  Under 50 50+  
Hillary Clinton 50% 45%
Marco Rubio 39% 49%
Undecided 11% 7%
HISPANIC Cuban Non-Cuban  
Hillary Clinton ** 64%
Marco Rubio ** 28%
Undecided ** 7%
RACE White Black Asian / Other  
Hillary Clinton 41% 82% 54%
Marco Rubio 51% 13% 36%
Undecided 9% 5% 10%
PARTY REGISTRATION Republican Democrat Unaffiliated  
Hillary Clinton 12% 85% 38%
Marco Rubio 81% 10% 45%
Undecided 7% 5% 17%
AFFILIATION Republican Democrat Independent  
Hillary Clinton 12% 85% 38%
Marco Rubio 81% 10% 45%
Undecided 7% 5% 17%
IDEOLOGY Conservative Moderate Liberal  
Hillary Clinton 15% 52% 88%
Marco Rubio 78% 37% 7%
Undecided 7% 11% 5%
TOP ISSUE Economy Immigration National Security Health Care
Hillary Clinton 47% 32% 24% 68%
Marco Rubio 46% 61% 65% 24%
Undecided 7% 7% 11% 8%
EDUCATION High School Some College College Degree  
Hillary Clinton 44% 44% 49%
Marco Rubio 44% 47% 44%
Undecided 12% 9% 6%
INCOME Under $40K $40K – $80K Over $80K  
Hillary Clinton 50% 45% 44%
Marco Rubio 39% 46% 50%
Undecided 10% 9% 6%
REGION Northwest Northeast Central Southwest
Hillary Clinton 36% 39% 43% 45%
Marco Rubio 55% 54% 48% 48%
Undecided 8% 7% 9% 8%
  Southeast  
Hillary Clinton 56%
Marco Rubio 35%
Undecided 9%


General Election: Clinton vs. Fiorina

Q: What if it were Hillary Clinton and Republican Carly Fiorina?

ALL TOTAL
Hillary Clinton 48%
Carly Fiorina 42%
Undecided 10%
GENDER Male Female  
Hillary Clinton 45% 51%
Carly Fiorina 47% 38%
Undecided 8% 12%
AGE GROUP 18–34 35–49 50–64 65+
Hillary Clinton 52% 52% 47% 45%
Carly Fiorina 35% 36% 44% 47%
Undecided 13% 12% 9% 8%
  Under 50 50+  
Hillary Clinton 52% 46%
Carly Fiorina 36% 46%
Undecided 12% 9%
HISPANIC Cuban Non-Cuban  
Hillary Clinton ** 65%
Carly Fiorina ** 27%
Undecided ** 7%
RACE White Black Asian / Other  
Hillary Clinton 42% 83% 53%
Carly Fiorina 47% 13% 36%
Undecided 11% 4% 11%
PARTY REGISTRATION Republican Democrat Unaffiliated  
Hillary Clinton 15% 85% 41%
Carly Fiorina 76% 9% 40%
Undecided 10% 6% 19%
AFFILIATION Republican Democrat Independent  
Hillary Clinton 15% 85% 39%
Carly Fiorina 76% 9% 43%
Undecided 9% 6% 18%
IDEOLOGY Conservative Moderate Liberal  
Hillary Clinton 18% 54% 89%
Carly Fiorina 74% 34% 6%
Undecided 8% 13% 5%
TOP ISSUE Economy Immigration National Security Health Care
Hillary Clinton 48% 32% 29% 69%
Carly Fiorina 43% 58% 60% 20%
Undecided 9% 10% 12% 11%
EDUCATION High School Some College College Degree  
Hillary Clinton 45% 46% 50%
Carly Fiorina 41% 43% 42%
Undecided 14% 11% 8%
INCOME Under $40K $40K – $80K Over $80K  
Hillary Clinton 52% 46% 46%
Carly Fiorina 36% 44% 47%
Undecided 12% 10% 8%
REGION Northwest Northeast Central Southwest
Hillary Clinton 36% 44% 44% 46%
Carly Fiorina 52% 48% 46% 45%
Undecided 11% 8% 10% 9%
  Southeast  
Hillary Clinton 58%
Carly Fiorina 31%
Undecided 11%


General Election: Sanders vs. Trump

Q: If the general election for president were today and the candidates were Democrat Bernie Sanders and Republican Donald Trump, who would you vote for?

ALL TOTAL
Bernie Sanders 41%
Donald Trump 50%
Undecided 9%
GENDER Male Female  
Bernie Sanders 38% 44%
Donald Trump 55% 44%
Undecided 7% 12%
AGE GROUP 18–34 35–49 50–64 65+
Bernie Sanders 50% 40% 41% 38%
Donald Trump 41% 48% 50% 54%
Undecided 9% 12% 8% 9%
  Under 50 50+  
Bernie Sanders 44% 40%
Donald Trump 45% 52%
Undecided 11% 8%
HISPANIC Cuban Non-Cuban  
Bernie Sanders ** 44%
Donald Trump ** 43%
Undecided ** 13%
RACE White Black Asian / Other  
Bernie Sanders 37% 74% 36%
Donald Trump 55% 17% 45%
Undecided 9% 8% 18%
PARTY REGISTRATION Republican Democrat Unaffiliated  
Bernie Sanders 11% 74% 38%
Donald Trump 82% 18% 48%
Undecided 7% 8% 15%
AFFILIATION Republican Democrat Independent  
Bernie Sanders 10% 75% 36%
Donald Trump 83% 17% 48%
Undecided 7% 8% 16%
IDEOLOGY Conservative Moderate Liberal  
Bernie Sanders 14% 46% 81%
Donald Trump 80% 41% 12%
Undecided 6% 13% 7%
TOP ISSUE Economy Immigration National Security Health Care
Bernie Sanders 43% 22% 22% 60%
Donald Trump 48% 73% 66% 34%
Undecided 10% 5% 12% 7%
EDUCATION High School Some College College Degree  
Bernie Sanders 39% 40% 43%
Donald Trump 48% 50% 49%
Undecided 13% 10% 8%
INCOME Under $40K $40K – $80K Over $80K  
Bernie Sanders 46% 39% 39%
Donald Trump 44% 51% 54%
Undecided 10% 10% 8%
REGION Northwest Northeast Central Southwest
Bernie Sanders 36% 43% 35% 42%
Donald Trump 56% 51% 57% 49%
Undecided 9% 6% 8% 10%
  Southeast  
Bernie Sanders 48%
Donald Trump 40%
Undecided 12%


General Election: Sanders vs. Carson

Q: What if it were Bernie Sanders and Republican Ben Carson?

ALL TOTAL
Bernie Sanders 40%
Ben Carson 48%
Undecided 12%
GENDER Male Female  
Bernie Sanders 38% 43%
Ben Carson 52% 45%
Undecided 10% 13%
AGE GROUP 18–34 35–49 50–64 65+
Bernie Sanders 48% 38% 41% 37%
Ben Carson 41% 46% 48% 53%
Undecided 11% 16% 11% 9%
  Under 50 50+  
Bernie Sanders 42% 39%
Ben Carson 44% 51%
Undecided 14% 10%
HISPANIC Cuban Non-Cuban  
Bernie Sanders ** 42%
Ben Carson ** 42%
Undecided ** 16%
RACE White Black Asian / Other  
Bernie Sanders 37% 67% 30%
Ben Carson 52% 24% 50%
Undecided 11% 8% 20%
PARTY REGISTRATION Republican Democrat Unaffiliated  
Bernie Sanders 9% 75% 34%
Ben Carson 83% 15% 46%
Undecided 9% 10% 20%
AFFILIATION Republican Democrat Independent  
Bernie Sanders 9% 75% 32%
Ben Carson 83% 15% 46%
Undecided 8% 10% 22%
IDEOLOGY Conservative Moderate Liberal  
Bernie Sanders 12% 44% 82%
Ben Carson 80% 41% 10%
Undecided 7% 15% 9%
TOP ISSUE Economy Immigration National Security Health Care
Bernie Sanders 42% 21% 20% 55%
Ben Carson 47% 69% 67% 31%
Undecided 11% 10% 13% 14%
EDUCATION High School Some College College Degree  
Bernie Sanders 34% 39% 43%
Ben Carson 47% 48% 48%
Undecided 19% 12% 9%
INCOME Under $40K $40K – $80K Over $80K  
Bernie Sanders 44% 38% 39%
Ben Carson 42% 50% 53%
Undecided 14% 12% 8%
REGION Northwest Northeast Central Southwest
Bernie Sanders 32% 39% 36% 42%
Ben Carson 59% 52% 53% 49%
Undecided 9% 9% 12% 10%
  Southeast  
Bernie Sanders 47%
Ben Carson 39%
Undecided 15%


General Election: Sanders vs. Bush

Q: What if it were Bernie Sanders and Republican Jeb Bush?

ALL TOTAL
Bernie Sanders 44%
Jeb Bush 46%
Undecided 10%
GENDER Male Female  
Bernie Sanders 42% 45%
Jeb Bush 49% 43%
Undecided 9% 12%
AGE GROUP 18–34 35–49 50–64 65+
Bernie Sanders 54% 43% 43% 40%
Jeb Bush 38% 45% 46% 51%
Undecided 8% 12% 12% 9%
  Under 50 50+  
Bernie Sanders 47% 42%
Jeb Bush 42% 48%
Undecided 10% 10%
HISPANIC Cuban Non-Cuban  
Bernie Sanders ** 41%
Jeb Bush ** 43%
Undecided ** 17%
RACE White Black Asian / Other  
Bernie Sanders 39% 79% 41%
Jeb Bush 51% 16% 41%
Undecided 11% 5% 18%
PARTY REGISTRATION Republican Democrat Unaffiliated  
Bernie Sanders 11% 78% 40%
Jeb Bush 79% 14% 44%
Undecided 10% 8% 16%
AFFILIATION Republican Democrat Independent  
Bernie Sanders 13% 78% 37%
Jeb Bush 78% 14% 45%
Undecided 9% 8% 18%
IDEOLOGY Conservative Moderate Liberal  
Bernie Sanders 15% 48% 85%
Jeb Bush 77% 40% 8%
Undecided 8% 12% 7%
TOP ISSUE Economy Immigration National Security Health Care
Bernie Sanders 45% 25% 24% 58%
Jeb Bush 44% 62% 67% 33%
Undecided 10% 13% 9% 9%
EDUCATION High School Some College College Degree  
Bernie Sanders 39% 43% 46%
Jeb Bush 48% 46% 45%
Undecided 13% 11% 9%
INCOME Under $40K $40K – $80K Over $80K  
Bernie Sanders 48% 43% 41%
Jeb Bush 42% 46% 51%
Undecided 11% 11% 9%
REGION Northwest Northeast Central Southwest
Bernie Sanders 35% 43% 38% 44%
Jeb Bush 57% 48% 51% 46%
Undecided 8% 9% 11% 10%
  Southeast  
Bernie Sanders 52%
Jeb Bush 37%
Undecided 10%


General Election: Sanders vs. Rubio

Q: What if it were Bernie Sanders and Republican Marco Rubio?

ALL TOTAL
Bernie Sanders 44%
Marco Rubio 46%
Undecided 9%
GENDER Male Female  
Bernie Sanders 42% 46%
Marco Rubio 50% 42%
Undecided 7% 11%
AGE GROUP 18–34 35–49 50–64 65+
Bernie Sanders 51% 46% 44% 41%
Marco Rubio 38% 42% 47% 52%
Undecided 11% 12% 9% 7%
  Under 50 50+  
Bernie Sanders 48% 42%
Marco Rubio 40% 49%
Undecided 12% 8%
HISPANIC Cuban Non-Cuban  
Bernie Sanders ** 46%
Marco Rubio ** 37%
Undecided ** 17%
RACE White Black Asian / Other  
Bernie Sanders 40% 78% 42%
Marco Rubio 51% 17% 41%
Undecided 9% 5% 18%
PARTY REGISTRATION Republican Democrat Unaffiliated  
Bernie Sanders 11% 81% 40%
Marco Rubio 80% 13% 44%
Undecided 8% 7% 15%
AFFILIATION Republican Democrat Independent  
Bernie Sanders 11% 81% 39%
Marco Rubio 81% 12% 44%
Undecided 8% 7% 17%
IDEOLOGY Conservative Moderate Liberal  
Bernie Sanders 15% 50% 85%
Marco Rubio 79% 38% 8%
Undecided 6% 12% 7%
TOP ISSUE Economy Immigration National Security Health Care
Bernie Sanders 46% 26% 24% 62%
Marco Rubio 45% 63% 66% 25%
Undecided 8% 10% 10% 12%
EDUCATION High School Some College College Degree  
Bernie Sanders 41% 44% 46%
Marco Rubio 44% 46% 47%
Undecided 15% 10% 7%
INCOME Under $40K $40K – $80K Over $80K  
Bernie Sanders 49% 43% 41%
Marco Rubio 40% 47% 52%
Undecided 11% 10% 6%
REGION Northwest Northeast Central Southwest
Bernie Sanders 34% 44% 40% 43%
Marco Rubio 57% 50% 51% 48%
Undecided 9% 6% 9% 9%
  Southeast  
Bernie Sanders 53%
Marco Rubio 35%
Undecided 11%


General Election: Sanders vs. Fiorina

Q: What if it were Bernie Sanders and Republican Carly Fiorina?

ALL TOTAL
Bernie Sanders 46%
Carly Fiorina 43%
Undecided 12%
GENDER Male Female  
Bernie Sanders 43% 48%
Carly Fiorina 47% 38%
Undecided 9% 14%
AGE GROUP 18–34 35–49 50–64 65+
Bernie Sanders 56% 48% 44% 41%
Carly Fiorina 33% 38% 45% 48%
Undecided 11% 14% 11% 10%
  Under 50 50+  
Bernie Sanders 51% 42%
Carly Fiorina 36% 47%
Undecided 13% 11%
HISPANIC Cuban Non-Cuban  
Bernie Sanders ** 52%
Carly Fiorina ** 31%
Undecided ** 17%
RACE White Black Asian / Other  
Bernie Sanders 41% 77% 47%
Carly Fiorina 47% 16% 36%
Undecided 12% 6% 17%
PARTY REGISTRATION Republican Democrat Unaffiliated  
Bernie Sanders 13% 81% 43%
Carly Fiorina 76% 11% 40%
Undecided 11% 9% 18%
AFFILIATION Republican Democrat Independent  
Bernie Sanders 14% 81% 38%
Carly Fiorina 76% 10% 42%
Undecided 10% 9% 20%
IDEOLOGY Conservative Moderate Liberal  
Bernie Sanders 18% 51% 85%
Carly Fiorina 74% 35% 7%
Undecided 8% 15% 8%
TOP ISSUE Economy Immigration National Security Health Care
Bernie Sanders 46% 28% 26% 65%
Carly Fiorina 43% 61% 62% 21%
Undecided 11% 12% 12% 14%
EDUCATION High School Some College College Degree  
Bernie Sanders 39% 46% 48%
Carly Fiorina 43% 41% 44%
Undecided 18% 13% 8%
INCOME Under $40K $40K – $80K Over $80K  
Bernie Sanders 49% 45% 44%
Carly Fiorina 36% 44% 49%
Undecided 16% 11% 7%
REGION Northwest Northeast Central Southwest
Bernie Sanders 36% 47% 40% 45%
Carly Fiorina 54% 44% 48% 46%
Undecided 10% 9% 12% 9%
  Southeast  
Bernie Sanders 55%
Carly Fiorina 32%
Undecided 14%


About the Poll

The poll was conducted Wednesday, Oct. 28 – Sunday, Nov. 1, 2015 by SurveyUSA for Bay News 9 and News 13.

3,000 state of Florida adults were interviewed. Of the adults, 2,712 were registered to vote in the state of Florida. Of the registered voters, 2,400 were determined to be likely to vote in the Nov. 8, 2016 general election. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 922 were likely to vote in the Republican primary, and 826 were likely to vote in the Democratic primary, both on March 15, 2016.

This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode: respondents reachable on their home telephone (69% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (31% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Barack Obama carried Florida (the state was "blue") in both 2008 and 2012.

NOTE: Figures may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.