Exclusive Florida Decides Poll: Presidential race to come down to wire

By Chris Vaughn and Audrea Huff, Senior Digital Media Producers
Last Updated: Thursday, October 27, 2016, 2:17 PM EDT
More poll results

Just two weeks before the next U.S. president will be elected, the pivotal swing state of Florida could still go either way for Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump, a Bay News 9/News 13 Florida Decides exclusive poll has found.

Democrat Hillary Clinton has a slim lead over Republican Donald Trump 48 to 45 percent, in the race for the presidency, but 6 percent of the respondents say they would vote for a minor-party candidate if the election were held today, the exclusive statewide Florida Decides poll determined.

It's a statistical tie when the margin of error (2.8 percent) is factored in.

The survey was conducted between Oct. 20 and 24, after the third and final presidential debate.

Clinton leads 2 to 1 among young voters — who are least likely to turn out to the polls, the survey found. Trump leads by 11 points among Florida's seniors, who are most likely to show up to the polls. The older the electorate, the better Trump will perform. Among women, Clinton has a six-point lead.

Not surprisingly, Trump leads 50 percent to 42 percent, among white Florida voters. Black Floridians overwhelmingly back Clinton, 78 percent to 18 percent. Cubans favor Trump by five points, but non-Cuban Hispanics back Clinton, 56 percent to 37 percent. Asians prefer Clinton by 14 points.

When Trump supporters were asked whether their vote was for Trump or against Clinton, 67 percent of those polled said their vote was for Trump. Thirty-one percent of those polled said their Trump vote was actually a vote against Clinton. Those same Trump supporters were asked whether they were voting for him "enthusiastically " or "with reservations;" they overwhelmingly (74 percent) said their vote for the business mogul was enthusiastic.

No state is more fiercely contested than Florida in a presidential election. President Barack Obama carried the state by less than 1 percentage point in 2012 and by 3 points in 2008. Republican George W. Bush carried the state by 5 points in 2004 and by a handful of votes in 2000.

 


 

Detailed poll results

Q: If the election for President of the United States were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? (names rotated) Republican Donald Trump? Democrat Hillary Clinton? Libertarian Gary Johnson? Green Party candidate Jill Stein? Or one of the other candidates?

  All Gender
Age
Male
Female
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
Donald Trump (R)
45%
46%
44%
28%
43%
49%
54%
Hillary Clinton (D)
48%
47%
50%
59%
48%
46%
43%
Gary Johnson (L) 2% 3% 2% 4% 3% 2%

1%

Jill Stein (G) 1% 2% 1% 4% 1% 0% 0%
Other 3% 3% 3% 5% 5% 1% 1%
Undecided 0%
0%
0%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Composition of likely/actual
November voters
100%
49%
51%
19%
26%
29%
27%
  Race
White
Black
Asian/
Other
Cuban Non-
Cuban Hispanic
Composition of likely/actual
November voters
80%
14%
7%
5% 7%
Donald Trump (R)
50%
18%
41%
49% 37%
Hillary Clinton (D)
42%
78%
55%
44% 56%
Gary Johnson (L) 3% 0% 2% 2% 2%
Jill Stein (G) 1% 1% 0% 0% 1%
Other 3% 2% 1% 4% 5%
Undecided 0%
0%
1%
0% 0%
  Party Affiliation
Strong
Rep.
Republican Ind. lean
Rep.
Independent Ind. lean
Dem.
Democrat
Strong
Dem.
Composition of likely/actual
November voters
16% 16% 13% 12% 9% 18% 15%
Donald Trump (R)
93%
77%
85%
37%
5%
8%
4%
Hillary Clinton (D)
5%
17%
8%
43%
83%
90%
96%
Gary Johnson (L) 0% 3% 3% 7% 6% 0% 0%
Jill Stein (G) 0% 0% 1% 5% 3% 0% 0%
Other 1% 3% 2% 7% 1% 2% 0%
Undecided
0%
0%
0%
2%
1%
0%
0%
  Ideology
Very Conserv. Somewhat Moderate Somewhat Very Lib.
Composition of likely/actual
November voters
19% 23% 30% 14% 12%
Donald Trump (R)
79%
72%
38%
8%
4%
Hillary Clinton (D)
16%
23%
55%
85%
92%
Gary Johnson (L) 0% 2% 2% 4% 1%
Jill Stein (G) 0% 0% 2% 0% 2%
Other 4% 2% 2% 2% 1%
Undecided 0%
0%
1%
0%
0%
  Evangelical Gun owner
Yes
No
Yes No
Composition of likely/actual
November voters
26% 67% 39% 56%
Donald Trump (R)
71%
36%
59%
33%
Hillary Clinton (D)
24%
57%
35%
59%
Gary Johnson (L) 1% 3% 2% 3%
Jill Stein (G) 0% 2% 0% 2%
Other 3% 2% 2% 3%
Undecided 0%
0%
0%
0%
  Education Income
High School Some College 4-yr College < $40K $40K - $80K > $80K
Composition of likely/actual
November voters
15% 34% 50% 25% 35% 39%
Donald Trump (R)
45%
50%
41%
38%
47%
48%
Hillary Clinton (D)
46%
43%
53%
55%
47%
46%
Gary Johnson (L) 1% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2%
Jill Stein (G) 2% 2% 0% 0% 1% 2%
Other 6% 2% 2% 4% 3% 2%
Undecided 1%
0%
1%
0%
0%
1%

Surveyed: 1,251 likely November voters
Margin of sampling error: ± 2.8%


Q: Is yours more a vote FOR Donald Trump, or more a vote AGAINST Hillary Clinton?

  All Gender
Age
Male
Female
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
For Trump
67%
66%
68%
61%
63%
70%
69%
Against Clinton
31%
32%
31%
34%
36%
29%
29%
Not Sure
2%
2%
2%
5%
1%
1%
2%
Composition of Trump voters
100%
50%
50%
11%
25%
32%
32%
  Race
White
Black
Asian/
Other
Cuban Non-
Cuban Hispanic
Composition of Trump voters
88%
5%
6%
6% 5%
For Trump
68%
68%
68%
71% 58%
Against Clinton
31%
32%
38%
29% 33%
Not Sure
1%
0%
1%
0% 9%
  Party Affiliation
Strong
Rep.
Republican Ind. lean
Rep.
Independent Ind. lean
Dem.
Democrat
Strong
Dem.
Composition of Trump voters 32% 27% 25% 10% 1% 3% 1%
For Trump
81%
66%
59%
52%
** ** **
Against Clinton
18%
33%
40%
43%
** ** **
Not Sure
0%
1%
1%
3%
** ** **
  Ideology
Very Conserv. Conserv. Moderate Liberal Very Lib.
Composition of Trump voters 32% 38% 25% 2% 1%
For Trump
74%
67%
58%
** **
Against Clinton
25%
32%
39%
** **
Not Sure
1%
1%
3%
** **
  Evangelical Gun owner
Yes
No
Yes No
Composition of Trump voters 41% 53% 51% 42%
For Trump
75%
61%
64%
69%
Against Clinton
24%
38%
34%
29%
Not Sure
1%
2%
2%
1%
  Education Income
High School Some College 4-yr College < $40K $40K - $80K > $80K
Composition of Trump voters 15% 38% 46% 21% 37% 42%
For Trump
70%
67%
66%
73%
68%
62%
Against Clinton
26%
31%
33%
24%
29%
37%
Not Sure
4%
1%
1%
3%
3%
0%

Surveyed: 561 likely Trump voters
Margin of sampling error: ± 4%


Q: Do you vote for Trump enthusiastically? Or with reservations?

  All Gender
Age
Male
Female
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
Enthusiastically
74%
73%
75%
60%
68%
78%
81%
With reservations
24%
25%
24%
33%
30%
22%
19%
Not Sure
1%
2%
1%
7%
2%
0%
0%
Composition of Trump voters
100%
50%
50%
11%
25%
32%
32%
  Race
White
Black
Asian/
Other
Cuban Non-
Cuban Hispanic
Composition of Trump voters
88%
5%
6%
6% 5%
Enthusiastically
74%
89%
61%
75% 77%
With reservations
25%
11%
32%
25% 14%
Not Sure
1%
0%
7%
0% 9%
  Party Affiliation
Strong
Rep.
Republican Ind. lean
Rep.
Independent Ind. lean
Dem.
Democrat
Strong
Dem.
Composition of Trump voters 32% 27% 25% 10% 1% 3% 1%
Enthusiastically
86%
72%
66%
65%
**
**
**
With reservations
14%
28%
33%
28%
**
**
**
Not Sure
0%
0% 1%
7%
**
**
**
  Ideology
Very Conserv. Somewhat Moderate Somewhat Very Lib.
Composition of Trump voters 32% 38% 25% 2% 1%
Enthusiastically
83%
73%
64%
**
**
With reservations
17%
27%
32%
**
**
Not Sure
0%
0%
4%
**
**
  Evangelical Gun owner
Yes
No
Yes No
Composition of Trump voters 41% 53% 51% 42%
Enthusiastically
83%
67%
73%
73%
With reservations
17%
32%
25%
26%
Not Sure
0%
1%
2%
1%
  Education Income
High School Some College 4-yr College < $40K $40K - $80K > $80K
Composition of Trump voters 15% 38% 46% 21% 37% 42%
Enthusiastically
75%
78%
71%
82%
76%
68%
With reservations
21%
21%
29%
16%
22%
32%
Not Sure
4%
1%
0%
2%
1%
1%

Surveyed: 564 Trump voters
Margin of sampling error: ± 3.7%


Q: Is yours more a vote FOR Hillary Clinton or more a vote AGAINST Donald Trump?

  All Gender
Age
Male
Female
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
For Clinton
67%
67%
68%
59%
56%
74%
80%
Against Trump 31%
31%
31%
37%
44%
25%
18%
Not Sure
2%
2%
1%
4%
1%
1%
2%
Composition of Clinton voters
100%
47%
53%
23%
26%
28%
24%
  Race
White
Black
Asian/
Other
Cuban Non-
Cuban Hispanic
Composition of Clinton voters
70%
22%
8%
5% 8%
For Clinton
70%
65%
54%
58% 50%
Against Trump
29%
33%
45%
32% 49%
Not Sure
2%
2%
0%
10% 1%
  Party Affiliation
Strong
Rep.
Republican Ind. lean
Rep.
Independent Ind. lean
Dem.
Democrat
Strong
Dem.
Composition of Clinton voters 2% 6% 2% 11% 15% 33% 31%
For Clinton
**
39%
**
60%
60%
67%
83%
Against Trump **
57%
**
38%
39%
31%
16%
Not Sure
** 4%
**
2%
2%
1%
1%
  Ideology
Very Conserv. Conserv. Moderate Liberal Very Lib.
Composition of Clinton voters 6% 11% 34% 24% 22%
For Clinton
80%
63%
67%
64%
74%
Against Trump
18%
31%
32%
36%
26%
Not Sure
1%
6%
1%
0%
0%
  Evangelical Gun owner
Yes
No
Yes No
Composition of Clinton voters 13% 79% 29% 69%
For Clinton
71%
67%
63%
69%
Against Trump
29%
32%
36%
29%
Not Sure
0%
1%
1%
2%
  Education Income
High School Some College 4-yr College < $40K $40K - $80K > $80K
Composition of Clinton voters 15% 30% 55% 29% 34% 37%
For Clinton
61%
66%
70%
71%
57%
75%
Against Trump
38%
32%
29%
27%
41%
24%
Not Sure
1%
3%
1%
2%
2%
1%

Surveyed: 602 Clinton voters
Margin of sampling error: ± 3.8%


Q: Do you vote for Clinton enthusiastically? Or with reservations?

  All Gender
Age
Male
Female
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
Enthusiastically
69%
71%
66%
55%
60%
81%
77%
With reservations
29%
27%
30%
38%
39%
18%
21%
Not Sure
2%
1%
4%
7%
0%
1%
2%
Composition of Clinton voters
100%
47%
53%
23%
26%
28%
24%
  Race
White
Black
Asian/
Other
Cuban Non-
Cuban Hispanic
Composition of Clinton voters
70%
22%
8%
5% 8%
Enthusiastically
66%
80%
65%
68% 56%
With reservations
32%
18%
34%
16% 40%
Not Sure
3%
2%
1%
16% 4%
  Party Affiliation
Strong
Rep.
Republican Ind. lean
Rep.
Independent Ind. lean
Dem.
Democrat
Strong
Dem.
Composition of Clinton voters 2% 6% 2% 11% 15% 33% 31%
Enthusiastically
**
47%
**
60%
55%
64%
90%
With reservations
**
53%
**
37%
43%
34%
8%
Not Sure
**
0%
**
3%
2%
2%
2%
  Ideology
Very Conserv. Conserv. Moderate Liberal Very Lib.
Composition of Clinton voters 6% 11% 34% 24% 22%
Enthusiastically
95%
64%
67%
57%
78%
With reservations
4%
35%
32%
38%
21%
Not Sure
2%
1%
2%
5%
1%
  Evangelical Gun owner
Yes
No
Yes No
Composition of Clinton voters 13% 79% 29% 69%
Enthusiastically
76%
67%
68%
69%
With reservations
23%
31%
31%
28%
Not Sure
2%
3%
1%
3%
  Education Income
High School Some College 4-yr College < $40K $40K - $80K > $80K
Composition of Clinton voters 15% 30% 55% 29% 34% 37%
Enthusiastically
80%
69%
66%
73%
65%
69%
With reservations
18%
27%
33%
24%
33%
28%
Not Sure
3%
4%
2%
2%
2%
4%

Surveyed: 602 Clinton voters
Margin of sampling error: ± 3.8%


Q: Is your opinion of Donald Trump...

  All Gender
Age
Male
Female
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
Extremely favorable
23%
26%
21%
14%
21%
26%
30%
Favorable
19%
19%
19%
12%
20%
21%
21%
Unfavorable 9% 10% 9% 12% 12% 8%

7%

Extremely unfavorable
46% 44% 48% 59% 45% 43% 40%
Not Sure
2%
2%
3%
3%
2%
3%
2%
Composition of registered voters
100%
48%
52%
20%
26%
29%
26%
  Race
White
Black
Asian/
Other
Cuban Non-
Cuban Hispanic
Composition of registered voters
79%
14%
7%
5% 7%
Extremely favorable
26%
13%
17%
26% 26%
Favorable
21%
6%
22%
25% 8%
Unfavorable 10% 9% 8% 13% 4%
Extremely unfavorable
41% 68% 51% 34% 59%
Not Sure
2%
3%
2%
2% 3%
  Party Affiliation
Strong
Rep.
Republican Ind. lean
Rep.
Independent Ind. lean
Dem.
Democrat
Strong
Dem.
Composition of registered voters 15% 16% 13% 13% 9% 18% 15%
Extremely favorable
66%
35%
30%
17%
4%
4%
4%
Favorable
26%
35%
44%
17%
0%
6%
0%
Unfavorable 2% 10% 10% 19% 9% 13% 4%
Extremely unfavorable
5% 17% 12% 45% 85% 74% 90%
Not Sure
0%
2%
4%
2%
1%
3%
2%
  Ideology
Very Conserv. Conserv. Moderate Liberal Very Lib.
Composition of registered voters 18% 23% 30% 14% 11%
Extremely favorable
49%
34%
17%
4%
4%
Favorable
28%
32%
18%
4%
0%
Unfavorable 6% 12% 12% 10% 1%
Extremely unfavorable 16% 21% 49% 82% 93%
Not Sure
2%
2%
3%
0%
2%
  Evangelical Gun owner
Yes
No
Yes No
Composition of registered voters 26% 67% 39% 56%
Extremely favorable
43%
26%
30%
17%
Favorable
27%
17%
26%
14%
Unfavorable
5% 11% 7% 11%
Extremely unfavorable
23% 54% 34% 55%
Not Sure
2%
2%
2%
2%
  Education Income
High School Some College 4-yr College < $40K $40K - $80K > $80K
Composition of registered voters 16% 34% 50% 26% 36% 38%
Extremely favorable
30%
25%
20%
26%
25%
19%
Favorable
15%
22%
18%
12%
19%
24%
Unfavorable 9% 8% 11% 12% 8% 9%
Extremely unfavorable
44% 43% 48% 47% 47% 44%
Not Sure
2%
3%
2%
2%
1%
3%

Surveyed: 1,314 likely registered voters
Margin of sampling error: ± 2.8%


Q: Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton...

  All Gender
Age
Male
Female
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
Extremely favorable
21%
20%
21%
19%
14%
25%
24%
Favorable
23%
21%
25%
30%
28%
19%
18%
Unfavorable 10% 12% 9% 14% 14% 6%

8%

Extremely unfavorable
45% 45% 44% 35% 42% 50% 50%
Not Sure
1%
2%
1%
2%
1%
1%
1%
Composition of registered voters
100%
48%
52%
20%
26%
29%
26%
  Race
White
Black
Asian/
Other
Cuban Non-
Cuban Hispanic
Composition of registered voters
79%
14%
7%
5% 7%
Extremely favorable
26%
13%
17%
26% 26%
Favorable
21%
6%
22%
25% 8%
Unfavorable 10% 9% 8% 13% 4%
Extremely unfavorable
41% 68% 51% 34% 59%
Not Sure
2%
3%
2%
2% 3%
  Party Affiliation
Strong
Rep.
Republican Ind. lean
Rep.
Independent Ind. lean
Dem.
Democrat
Strong
Dem.
Composition of registered voters 15% 16% 13% 13% 9% 18% 15%
Extremely favorable
3%
5%
1%
11%
18%
34%
68%
Favorable
3%
13%
6%
21%
58%
47%
25%
Unfavorable 7% 9% 12% 23% 13% 8% 2%
Extremely unfavorable
88% 73% 80% 43% 9% 9% 4%
Not Sure
0%
0%
1%
2%
2%
1%
0%
  Ideology
Very Conserv. Conserv. Moderate Liberal Very Lib.
Composition of registered voters 18% 23% 30% 14% 11%
Extremely favorable
12%
8%
20%
28%
53%
Favorable
6%
13%
30%
42%
34%
Unfavorable 6% 10% 10% 19% 5%
Extremely unfavorable 76% 68% 37% 11% 7%
Not Sure
0%
0%
2%
1%
1%
  Evangelical Gun owner
Yes
No
Yes No
Composition of registered voters 26% 67% 39% 56%
Extremely favorable
16%
22%
14%
26%
Favorable
9%
29%
19%
27%
Unfavorable
8% 11% 9% 11%
Extremely unfavorable
68% 37% 57% 35%
Not Sure
0%
1%
1%
1%
  Education Income
High School Some College 4-yr College < $40K $40K - $80K > $80K
Composition of registered voters 16% 34% 50% 26% 36% 38%
Extremely favorable
18%
20%
22%
27%
17%
21%
Favorable
26%
18%
26%
22%
26%
21%
Unfavorable 8% 9% 12% 10% 12% 9%
Extremely unfavorable
47% 51% 40% 40% 45% 47%
Not Sure
1%
2%
1%
1%
0%
1%

Surveyed: 1,314 likely registered voters
Margin of sampling error: ± 2.8%

Full survey results by various demographics

This Bay News 9/News 13 Exclusive statewide Florida Decides poll was conducted by SurveyUSA from Oct. 20-24. SurveyUSA interviewed 1,400 state of Florida adults, 1,314 of whom were registered to vote. Of those registered, 1,251 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the Nov. 8 general election. Just 1 percent of voters interviewed for this survey said they "almost always" vote in presidential elections but will not vote in 2016 because they do not like any of the candidates on the ballot. Five percent of voters said they "almost never" vote in presidential elections but will vote in 2016 because they were drawn to one of this year's candidates. Importantly: These "new" voters are spread across the political spectrum; they are not disproportionately Trump supporters. All of the interviews for this survey were conducted after the third presidential debate and at a time when Trump described himself as "unshackled." This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephones (65 percent of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (35 percent of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.