Florida's days of plenty could be nearing an end in rapid fashion, the new speaker of the state House is warning, a development that could force lawmakers to tackle a budget deficit of up to $1 billion as soon as next spring.

  • Florida budget deficit of up to $1 billion possible
  • House speaker feels projected surplus will be wiped out by next session
  • Gov. Scott wants $85 million in business incentives

Between rising Medicaid costs, underperforming state investments and the yet-to-be-seen economic fallout from this year's Zika crisis, House Speaker Richard Corcoran (R-Land O'Lakes) believes a projected $7.5 million surplus will be wiped out by the time the legislature convenes its regular session in March.

"The budget, I think, is going to be difficult," Corcoran told reporters last week. "I think once we see the Zika effect in our sales tax revenues, my hunch is that when we hit session in March that we're going to be pretty...at best, flatlined, and at worst, we could have a deficit."

State economists have been forecasting a $1.3 billion deficit in 2018. If Corcoran's prediction holds true, it would signal a faster deceleration of economic growth than had been expected.

Democrats have assigned much the blame for the state's deteriorating revenues to Gov. Rick Scott, who along with Republican legislators, has championed billions of dollars worth of tax cuts primarily benefiting corporations. The cuts haven't led to significant reinvestment in Florida's economy, they say.

A 2017 deficit could doom Scott's request for $85 million in business incentive funding but, in comments that could presage a showdown with Corcoran, the governor says the speaker's prediction of a budget crisis is premature.

"Tourism is continuing to grow, jobs are continuing to grow, our labor force is continuing to grow, so, no, this state is on a roll," Scott said Monday. "There's no place like Florida."

Indeed, a record 85 million people visited Florida during the first nine months of the year, indicating that widespread fears about the Zika virus may not have impacted tourism, after all.

But numbers aside, the fundamental difference between Scott and Corcoran may be philosophical in nature. Corcoran has assumed the speaker's gavel with an eye toward eliminating the sort of "corporate welfare" spending that has come to define Scott's agenda.

"We have a spending problem in this state, and so, we're going to address that spending problem," the speaker said.