Exclusive Florida Decides Poll: Clinton holds lead over Trump

Last Updated: Wednesday, June 29, 2016, 4:56 AM EDT
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Democrat Hillary Clinton has a small lead over Republican Donald Trump in Florida, an exclusive statewide News 13/Bay News 9 poll shows.

In a survey of 1,678 likely voters, our Florida Decides poll found Clinton had 46 percent to Trump's 42 percent, if the election were held today.

Libertarian Gary Johnson took 2 percent of the vote and Green Party candidate Jill Stein took 1 percent.

Four percent chose other and 5 percent are undecided.

The results closely match other recent Florida polls taken in the last few days. Clinton is holding Trump to a narrow lead in key battleground states and Florida and its 29 electoral votes is no exception.

Clinton and Trump largely split the demographics of voters, with notable exceptions. Trump and Clinton have some what equal percentages of male and female voters, with Trump taking 46 percent of male voters and Clinton taking 48 percent of female voters.

The two presidential candidates also split the results when you break the voters down by age, with one notable exception: 51 percent of voters age 18-34 support Clinton, while only 28 percent support Trump.

Clinton also takes 76 percent of the black vote and 61 percent of the non-Cuban Hispanic vote. Trump takes 45 percent of the Cuban vote compared to Clinton's 34 percent. Eleven percent of Cuban voters are undecided. Trump also has a small lead over white voters, 47 percent to 41 percent.

Clinton is finding her foothold in the more progressive southeastern part of the state: Miami, Fort Lauderdale and Boca Raton.

Trump is leading in Northwest, Northeast and Central Florida. Trump has a slight edge in Tampa with 45 percent of the vote, while Clinton leads in Orlando with the same slight edge of 45 percent.

Florida voters named the economy the top issue facing the presidential candidates, followed by National Security and Immigration.

The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.4 percent.

Join us for more exclusive poll results Wednesday afternoon starting at p a.m., to find out whether Florida voters would legalize medical marijuana if the election were held today.


Detailed poll results

Q: If the November election for president were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, would you vote for Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Hillary Clinton, Libertarian Gary Johnson, Green Party candidate Jill Stein or another candidate?

  All Gender
Age
Male
Female
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
Donald Trump (R)
42%
46%
37%
28%
39%
44%
48%
Hillary Clinton (D)
46%
43%
48%
51%
45%
44%
45%
Gary Johnson (L) 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2%

1%

Jill Stein (G) 1% 1% 1% 4% 1% 1% 0%
Other 4% 3% 5% 8% 3% 4% 3%
Undecided 5%
4%
7%
8%
8%
5%
3%
Composition of likely/actual
November voters
100%
48%
52%
15%
25%
30%
30%
  Race
White
Black
Asian/
Other
Cuban Non-
Cuban Hispanic
Composition of likely/actual
November voters
80%
13%
7%
5% 6%
Donald Trump (R)
47%
10%
36%
45% 26%
Hillary Clinton (D)
41%
76%
46%
34% 61%
Gary Johnson (L) 2% 1% 4% 5% 3%
Jill Stein (G) 2% 0% 2% 2% 0%
Other 4% 4% 9% 3% 9%
Undecided 5%
8%
4%
11% 1%
  Party Affiliation
Strong
Rep.
Republican Ind. lean
Rep.
Independent Ind. lean
Dem.
Democrat
Strong
Dem.
Composition of likely/actual
November voters
18% 15% 12% 9% 11% 19% 17%
Donald Trump (R)
89%
77%
71%
35%
12%
9%
1%
Hillary Clinton (D)
5%
9%
15%
34%
63%
81%
95%
Gary Johnson (L) 1% 2% 5% 7% 1% 2% 1%
Jill Stein (G) 1% 1% 1% 2% 5% 0% 1%
Other 1% 5% 3% 12% 8% 4% 2%
Undecided
3%
6%
6%
9%
11%
5%
0%
  Ideology Tea Party
Very Conserv. Conserv. Moderate Liberal Very Lib. Yes No
Composition of likely/actual
November voters
16% 23% 31% 16% 9% 11% 80%
Donald Trump (R)
72%
74%
31%
10%
4%
75%
35%
Hillary Clinton (D)
20%
19%
54%
79%
79%
19%
51%
Gary Johnson (L) 1% 1% 3% 3% 2% 0% 2%
Jill Stein (G) 1% 0% 1% 3% 5% 2% 1%
Other 3% 2% 4% 4% 7% 2% 4%
Undecided 3%
3%
8%
2%
3%
2%
5%
  Abortion Gun owner
Pro-life
Pro-choice
Yes No
Composition of likely/actual
November voters
38% 57% 40% 54%
Donald Trump (R)
65%
26%
56%
27%
Hillary Clinton (D)
25%
60%
34%
58%
Gary Johnson (L) 1% 3% 2% 2%
Jill Stein (G) 1% 2% 1% 2%
Other 4% 4% 3% 5%
Undecided 4%
6%
4%
6%
  Education Income
High School Some College 4-yr College < $40K $40K - $80K > $80K
Composition of likely/actual
November voters
16% 33% 51% 27% 38% 35%
Donald Trump (R)
48%
45%
36%
40%
39%
44%
Hillary Clinton (D)
40%
43%
50%
46%
48%
44%
Gary Johnson (L) 1% 2% 3% 1% 2% 3%
Jill Stein (G) 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 0%
Other 4% 5% 4% 6% 4% 3%
Undecided 6%
4%
6%
5%
5%
6%

Surveyed: 1,678 likely November voters
Margin of sampling error: ± 2.4%


Q: What's the biggest issue facing the 2016 candidates for president? The economy? Immigration? Education? National security? Health care? Climate change? Or something else?

  All Gender
Age
Male
Female
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
Economy
38%
40%
36%
39%
40%
38%
37%
Immigration
18%
18%
17%
17%
14%
14%
25%
Education 4% 4% 4% 9% 5% 2%

3%

National Security
25% 23% 26% 22% 29% 28% 19%
Health Care 6% 5% 8%

6%

4% 8% 6%
Climate Change 3% 4% 3% 5% 2% 3% 4%
Other 4% 4% 3% 1% 5% 4% 3%
Not Sure
2%
2%
3%
1%
1%
3%
2%
Composition of likely/actual
November voters
100%
48%
52%
15%
25%
30%
30%
  Race
White
Black
Asian/
Other
Cuban Non-
Cuban Hispanic
Composition of likely/actual
November voters
80%
13%
7%
5% 6%
Economy
37%
51%
27%
32% 36%
Immigration
19%
10%
26%
17% 26%
Education 4% 6% 2% 12% 6%
National Security
25% 17% 31% 27% 25%
Health Care
6%
6%
9%
8%
7%
Climate Change
4%
2%
2%
2%
0%
Other 3% 6% 4% 2% 1%
Not Sure
2%
3%
1%
0% 0%
  Party Affiliation
Strong
Rep.
Republican Ind. lean
Rep.
Independent Ind. lean
Dem.
Democrat
Strong
Dem.
Composition of likely/actual
November voters
18% 35% 12% 9% 11% 19% 17%
Economy
35%
24%
33%
44%
39%
43%
38%
Immigration
29%
2%
26%
16%
9%
11%
11%
Education 3% 30% 2% 4% 10% 5% 4%
National Security
27% 3% 30% 19% 18% 25% 20%
Health Care
3%
1%
3%
7%
5%
7%
13%
Climate Change
0%
3%
1%
4%
5%
4%
8%
Other 2% 3% 3% 5% 11% 2% 3%
Not Sure
1%
3%
3%
1%
2%
4%
2%
  Ideology Tea Party
Very Conserv. Conserv. Moderate Liberal Very Lib. Yes No
Composition of likely/actual
November voters
16% 23% 31% 16% 9% 11% 80%
Economy
39%
39%
40%
40%
31%
37%
39%
Immigration
28%
24%
15%
11%
9%
27%
16%
Education 3% 3% 3% 5% 9% 5% 4%
National Security 24% 26% 28% 20% 22% 26% 24%
Health Care 3% 3% 7% 10% 13% 3% 7%
Climate Change 1% 0% 2% 10% 9% 2% 4%
Other 1% 2% 4% 2% 5% 1% 4%
Not Sure
1%
3%
1%
2%
3%
0%
2%
  Abortion Gun owner
Pro-life
Pro-choice
Yes No
Composition of likely/actual
November voters
38% 57% 40% 54%
Economy
40%
38%
36%
40%
Immigration
23%
14%
19%
15%
Education
3% 5% 4% 4%
National Security
26% 23% 29% 22%
Health Care 3% 8% 5% 8%
Climate Change 1% 5% 3% 4%
Other 2% 5% 3% 4%
Not Sure
1%
2%
1%
3%
  Education Income
High School Some College 4-yr College < $40K $40K - $80K > $80K
Composition of likely/actual
November voters
16% 33% 51% 27% 38% 35%
Economy
37%
38%
38%
38%
38%
38%
Immigration
22%
21%
15%
20%
16%
18%
Education 2% 4% 5% 3% 6% 3%
National Security
25% 25% 25% 23% 24% 27%
Health Care 7% 7% 6% 8% 6% 5%
Climate Change 2% 2% 5% 2% 5% 3%
Other 2% 3% 5% 3% 3% 5%
Not Sure
4%
2%
2%
3%
2%
1%

Surveyed: 1,678 likely November voters
Margin of sampling error: ± 2.4%

This Florida Decides Exclusive Statewide Poll was conducted by SurveyUSA from June 25-27. Research began as soon as names on the primary ballots were finalized June 24. Most interviews were completed after the results of the British vote to leave the European Union were announced. Of the 2,000 adults interviewed, 1,873 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 555 were determined by SurveyUSA to be eligible and likely to vote in the Aug. 30, Democratic primary, and 618 were determined by SurveyUSA to be eligible and likely to vote in the Aug. 30, Republican primary. Only voters eligible and likely to vote in each primary were asked the Senate primary horse-race questions. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephone (66 percent of likely November voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (34 percent of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.