Now that we’ve lost Fiona in the tropical mix, we’re focused in on Invest-99 and Tropical Storm Gaston.

  • Gaston will have no affect on Florida
  • Invest-99 still a 'disorganized mess'
  • 2 scenarios for Invest 99

Let's quickly discuss Gaston, then move to what most Floridians are watching with us right now. Tropical Storm Gaston remains 1200 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands and is moving northwestward. It will continue along this path into the weekend, then turn north just east of Bermuda.

Gaston is maintaining its strength at 70 mph. It may fluctuate in strength between a tropical storm and hurricane through early next week. Gaston will NOT directly impact Florida.

Invest-99 is still a disorganized mess with lots of questions surrounding it. A broad area of low pressure is swirling over the northern Leeward Islands, but still no signs of a well-defined circulation.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft checked the storm out Wednesday, and found it still lacks well-defined circulation. We could eventually see a tropical depression form as the system moves west-northwestward at 15 mph.

Confidence: Until we have a circulation, forecast models will be fairly useless several days out. We see one of two things happening: 1.) System moves over Hispaniola and is torn apart, the same fate of Tropical Storm Erika last year. 2.) It sneaks by just north of Hispaniola, and taps into better environmental conditions near the Bahamas.

In the second case, we could be looking at a tropical system passing across far southern Florida by Sunday night or Monday. This will kick up a breeze for central Florida, and possibly spiral some rain bands across the area early next week.

It’s best to be prepared at ANY point this season, so go over your hurricane readiness plan and make sure your kit is put together as we enter the second half of hurricane season.