Hurricane Irma increased in intensity just enough to get declared a Category 5 hurricane. 

SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...22.3N 78.2W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ESE OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.46 INCHES

This is one of those storms that is just in a perfect location, with nothing to inhibit it unless it touches land. It did do that, by the way -- right after it re-intensified it made a wobble to the southwest and made landfall in the northern barrier islands of Cuba. 

It’s becoming very obvious now that the high pressure to the north of the storm has ended up being much stronger than anyone and any piece of technology thought it would be.  This unanticipated strength has put the storm on a much farther westward path, and that trend has continued. 

If Irma can interact more with Cuba it will weaken. Unfortunately, all signs are pointing toward it possibly just skirting along the Cuban coast, and therefore not weakening that much as it continues feeding off the warm water.  With that being the case, we think it’s now a very realistic scenario that this storm will end up in the Gulf.

The bigger question now is how far west into the Gulf.  Will it barely go past the Florida Keys and then move north over Naples or Fort Myers, or will it come all the way straight up the coast staying over the warm gulf? 

That would be our worst case scenario, as it would allow Irma to stay strong while still doing damage all along the western side of Florida.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Volusia/Brevard County Line southward around the Florida peninsula to Anclote River
* Florida Keys
* Tampa Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County line
* North of Anclote River to Suwannee River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Volusia/Brevard County Line southward around the Florida peninsula to Anclote River
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, and Matanzas
* Central Bahamas and Ragged Island
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Volusia/Brevard County Line to Fernandina Beach
* North and west of Anclote River to Indian Pass
* Cuban provinces of Holguin and Las Tunas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Holguin, Las Tunas, La Habana, and Ciudad de la Habana

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:

SW Florida from Captiva to Cape Sable...8 to 12 ft
Cape Sable to Boca Raton including the Florida Key...5 to 10 ft
Venice to Captiva...5 to 8 ft
Anclote River to Venice including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County line...3 to 6 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Make sure to watch our Tropical Updates each hour at :49

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Remember that the spaghetti model plot does not indicate the strength of a system or even development at all. It only predicts where this broad area of low pressure is expected to go.

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