ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — Florence has weakened considerably out in the Atlantic today and is now down to tropical storm status.

However, that’s not necessarily a good thing in the long run. If Florence would have stayed strong it likely would move further north, which in the end would give it a better chance of never coming close to the U.S.

But instead, being a weaker storm, it will tend to get pushed further to the west due to the strong high pressure to its north. So expect a more westerly movement over the next few days. 

Wind shear is weakening it right now, but that wind shear will likely go away in a few days allowing Florence to regain strength.

It’s looking more likely that Florence could come close to the U.S.

Now the main question will be, will it actually make landfall or just come close, and we won’t have confidence in that answer for a few more days. 

The tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic will likely develop sometime this weekend as it moves west.

The computer models that take it north are likely wrong. The more likely scenario is for that one to move due west toward the Caribbean. Therefore it will also need to be watched next week.