TAMPA, Fla. — For about 3 to 4 weeks during January and lasting into a couple of days in February, we have had some very chilly weather around here. This, of course, followed by a very warm December.

We very rarely get very cold weather to last very long around here. Remember, when we talk about our "normal" weather, we really are talking about averages. So, for most of the Winter months, our "normal" highs are around 70 and our "normal" lows are in the low 50s. But, over the decades, we see warm spells and cold snaps in Winter that "average" out to these normals.

So, going forward through the next month or two, historically we can still get pretty chilly. Think back to 2010. In February, 2010, 24 of the 28 days were below average. In March, we still had highs in the 60s as late as the 29th! But, the chances for freezes in the morning go way down once we get into late February and especially March. 

With the pattern over the last week, we have been under a ridge of high pressure. This keeps us warm and generally keeps the storm systems and strong cold fronts away from our area. There are some signs of the pattern breaking down somewhat over the next week, but nothing really points to a big pattern shift. 

A dip in the jet stream will develop a storm system to move across the Eastern United States through Tuesday. Its cold front will swing through later Tuesday giving us a cooler day on Wednesday. 

So, nothing significantly cold is expected but temperatures will sneak a few degrees below average for our high on Wedneday and our low Thursday morning. Looking longer range, by next week, the pattern will allow some cooler weather to either come in to our area or get close, but the bitterly cold air will be disconnected from this. That means, that, yes, we could cool down a little bit with each passing cold front, we don't really see much of a chance for significantly colder weather.

Even looking at some longer range models, there are some indications that the Western U.S. could still see some active cold weather over the next two weeks. But, even if that shifts a bit after that, we are heading into March at that point already. So, with that said, I wouldn't put the jacket away just yet, but also keep the flip flops nearby.