The Colorado State Tropical Forecast Team of Philip J. Klotzbach, Michael Bell, and Jhordanne Jones have released their regularly scheduled August 5 update to their 2019 Hurricane Season Forecast.  In spite of rather tranquil conditions in the tropics as of August 5, they still expect more activity as we enter the heart of the season from mid-August into September.

“We continue to predict a near-normal 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. The forecast number of hurricanes has increased slightly to account for short-lived Hurricane Barry which formed in July. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic remain near average. While the odds of a weak El Niño persisting through August-October have decreased, vertical wind shear in the Caribbean remains relatively high. The probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean remains near its long-term average.”

Named Storms: 14 for the season, 12 for the rest of the season

Hurricanes: 7 for the season, 6 for the rest of the season

Major Hurricanes: 2

JULY PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING UNITED STATES COASTAL AREAS:

1) Entire U.S. coastline - 53 percent (full-season average for last century is 52 percent)

2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 31 percent (full-season average for last century is 31 percent)

3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 31 percent (fullseason average for last century is 30 percent)

“As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”

Link to entire report:  https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2019/08/2019-08.pdf